Preferences, Interests, and Regional Integration: The Development of the ASEAN Industrial Cooperation Arrangement (original) (raw)
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2004
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The integraton by trade and FDI of emerging economies: The ASEAN example*
2015
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This article proposes a theory that the strategic preferences of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) members should be a key variable in explaining the ASEAN integration process over the last four decades. ASEAN integration will not progress as rapidly and substantially as many of its leaders claim unless there are re markable developments in factors that affect the underlying pref erences of ASEAN states, such as a significant increase in intra ASEAN trade and investment. a much stronger pressure from do mestic businesses for deeper integration or external shocks that threaten the region's economic growth. While the progressive path of European integration illustrates that an independent and strong supranational institution is necessary to handle the complex processes of regional integration the strategic-preference theory of ASEAN integration presented here predicts that this will not be the top policy priority of its leaders in the near future.
The ASEAN Economic Community: An Economic and Strategic Project
The ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) is both an economic and strategic initiative. As an economic project, the AEC is expected to achieve its objective of a single market by end-2015. Although ASEAN has achieved 82.1 per cent of its targets, it has not yet reached its end-goal since both border and beyond-the-border restrictions continue to prevail in the region. The elimination of such restrictions is likely to be the most important task if ASEAN intends to move towards a single market space in the future. As a strategic project, the AEC is conceived to help member states pursue their national interests. Economic cohesion is expected to help the 10 small economies during times of economic vulnerabilities, to deliver on a bigger market space of 600 million people to attract FDI, and to play the role of a ‘hub’ in the larger Asian region. In addition, economic coherence is likely to strengthen the member states’ bargaining power in the WTO and in their collective negotiating position for FTAs and other strategic matters. The AEC’s achievement as a strategic project can be observed in ASEAN states’ increasing level of FDI; cooperative stance during the 2008 crisis; positive behaviour in dealing with the international community; and increasing belief in maintaining centrality. Going forward, the AEC process will continue, not just for its economic benefits of lowering trade and investment costs in the region, but also for managing ongoing economic and geopolitical uncertainties.