Random Forest Based Power Sustainability and Cost Optimization in Smart Grid (original) (raw)
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The combination of renewable energy sources and prosumer-based smart grid is a sustainable solution to cater to the problem of energy demand management. A pressing need is to develop an efficient Energy Management Model (EMM) that integrates renewable energy sources with smart grids. However, the variable scenarios and constraints make this a complex problem. Machine Learning (ML) methods can often model complex and non-linear data better than the statistical models. Therefore, developing an ML algorithm for the EMM is a suitable option as it reduces the complexity of the EMM by developing a single trained model to predict the performance parameters of EMM for multiple scenarios. However, understanding latent correlations and developing trust in highly complex ML models for designing EMM within the stochastic prosumer-based smart grid is still a challenging task. Therefore, this paper integrates ML and Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) in the EMM. At the first stage, an optimization model for Prosumer Energy Surplus (PES), Prosumer Energy Cost (PEC), and Grid Revenue (GR) is formulated to calculate base performance parameters (PES, PEC, and GR) for the training of the ML-based GPR model. In the second stage, stochasticity of renewable energy sources, load, and energy price, same as provided by the Genetic Algorithm (GA) based optimization model for PES, PEC, and GR, and base performance parameters act as input covariates to produce a GPR model that predicts PES, PEC, and GR. Seasonal variations of PES, PEC, and GR are incorporated to remove hitches from seasonal dynamics of prosumers energy generation and prosumers energy consumption. The proposed adaptive Service Level Agreement (SLA) between energy prosumers and the grid benefits both these entities. The results of the proposed model are rigorously compared with conventional optimization (GA and PSO) based EMM to prove the validity of the proposed model.
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