Impact of climate variation and human activities on groundwater quality in northwest of Iran (original) (raw)
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Groundwater conditions related to climate change in the semi-arid area of western Iran
Groundwater for Sustainable Development , 2019
The effect of climate change on future groundwater conditions in the Toyserkan basin in western Iran has been studied. In recent years, overexploitation for agricultural activities has led to water-table decline. Groundwater recharge rate predictions in the study area were obtained from the RCP4.5 Scenario of the 5th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and HadGEM2 General Circulation Model. Outputs were downscaled with the RegCM4 Regional Climate Model coupled to the Community Land Model version 4.5 (CLM 4.5). RegCM4 model validation and prediction were attempted for 7 years (1999-2005) and 11 years (2015-2025), respectively. Validation results showed that RegCM4 reasonably simulated daily precipitation and monthly temperature and runoff. Firstly, geological, geophysical and hydrogeological data were used and evaluated to develop the conceptual model. Secondly, a 3D numerical model of groundwater flow was developed in order to describe the groundwater regime and predict the effects of water management strategies. Two scenarios were defined for the prediction period. The first scenario assumes that current exploitation rates will be continued, while the second one assumes a 20 percent decrease in pumping due to increased irrigation efficiency. The results showed a water-table rise from 2015 to 2025, which is heightened by increase in irrigation efficiency.
Arabian Journal of Geosciences, 2016
Groundwater is the main source of water in arid and semi-arid regions, so it is very important to recognize vulnerable parts of aquifer under future climate change conditions. In this research, 16 climate models were evaluated based on weighting approach. HADCM3 and CGCM2.3.2a models were selected for temperature and precipitation prediction, respectively. LARS-WG was used for downscaling AOGCMs outputs. Results show that temperature increase by 1.4°C and precipitation changes between +10 and −6 % under B1 and A2 emission scenario, respectively. Runoff volumes will decrease by −39 % under A2 emission scenario whereas runoff volume will increase by +12 % under B1 emission scenario. Simulation of groundwater head variation by MODFLOW software indicates higher groundwater depletion rate under A2 scenario compared to B1 scenario. Groundwater model outputs indicate that the most vulnerable part of the aquifer is located in the southwest region. Large number of extraction wells and low aquifer transmissivity are the reasons for high vulnerability of the region.
Water, 2023
Assessing the status of water resources is essential for long-term planning related to water and many other needs of a country. According to climate reports, climate change is on the rise in all parts of the world; however, this phenomenon will have more consequences in arid and semi-arid regions. The aim of this study is to evaluate the effects of climate change on groundwater, surface water, and their exchanges in Shazand plain in Iran, which has experienced a significant decline in streamflow and groundwater level in recent years. To address this issue, we propose the use of the integrated hydrological model MODFLOW-OWHM to simulate groundwater level, surface water routing, and their interactions; a climate model, NorESM, under scenario SSP2, for climate data prediction; and, finally, the HEC-HMS model to predict future river discharge. The results predict that, under future climate conditions, the river discharges at the hydrometric stations of the region may decrease by 58%, 63%, 75%, and 81%. The average groundwater level in 2060 may decrease significantly by 15.1 m compared to 2010. The results of this study reveal the likely destructive effects of climate change on water resources in this region and highlight the need for sustainable management methods to mitigate these future effects.
Springer Hydrogeology, 2018
The growing trend in global warming has impacted the hydrological system of the Indus River system. The variations in climate have influenced not only the local but also the regional behavior of groundwater system in the Indus River basin. It would also be crucial to investigate characteristics and behavior of this resource in order to ensure safe yield for irrigation, industry, and sustaining livelihood of millions of people of Indus area. A good knowledge of the problem and analysis of various components of the hydrological system are thus essential to achieve optimum groundwater management goals for sustaining agriculture development. The numerical groundwater flow model-Feflow-was calibrated to simulate groundwater flow behavior in upper Chaj Doab, Indus basin, during 1985-2005. The model had predicted an average decline of about 0.96 m in groundwater levels during the calibrated period and further reduction up to year 2020. A major breakthrough of groundwater depletion was observed in year 1999 when the last drought prevailed for over 3-4 years in this region. Major causative factors of watertable decline may include decrease in surface water for groundwater recharge, variability and change in rainfall pattern, and overexploitation of groundwater. The situation has resulted not only in exaggerating the cost of groundwater pumping, but also in abandoning existing wells. The integration of groundwater flow modeling and geoinformatic techniques proved helpful in analyzing the resource situation as well as vulnerability of the groundwater system to influential factors like climate change. As the country is already water stressed and predicted to face water
University of Tehran, College of Aburaihan, 2022
Groundwater is the most valuable water resources in any region and in many arid and semi-arid regions of the world, such as Iran, is the main source for drinking and agricultural needs. In recent years, with the increase in population and as a result of increasing withdrawals from aquifers and climate change, many of aquifers are in poor condition, and these conditions continue or are deteriorating. In this regard, regular monitoring of aquifers is always very important and by making appropriate management decisions, it is possible to prevent more damage to aquifers and reduce the damage. The purpose of this study is to determine the droughts of the future and to determine its impact on the aquifer of Shahrekord plain. In this study, using the output of CMIP6 models, climatic variables such as rainfall and temperature for the next period are simulated and the rainfall situation in the region until 2100 has been determined. Then, using the ANFIS model, groundwater depth in five selected piezometers in the plain is predicted by 2050. According to the results of this study, the aquifer condiotion of Shahrekord plain has been determined by 2050 and it has been determined that in some parts of Shahrekord plain, the groundwater depth will increase to 26 meters. Due to possible changes in the future in order to prevent the situation from deteriorating and increasing the damage, appropriate management decisions must be made in this regard.
Water
Water quality monitoring is crucial in managing water resources and ensuring their safety for human use and environmental health. In the Al-Jawf Basin, we conducted a study on the Quaternary aquifer, where various techniques were utilized to evaluate, simulate, and predict the groundwater quality (GWQ) for irrigation. These techniques include water quality indices (IWQIs), geochemical modeling, multivariate statistical analysis, geographic information systems (GIS), and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference systems (ANFIS). Physicochemical analysis was conducted on the collected groundwater samples to determine their composition. The results showed that the order of abundance of ions was Ca2+ > Mg2+ > Na+ > K+ and SO42− > Cl− > HCO3− > NO3−. The assessment of groundwater quality for irrigation based on indices such as Irrigation water quality index (IWQI), sodium adsorption ratio(SAR), sodium percent (Na%), soluble sodium percentage (SSP), potential salinity (PS), and res...
Research, 2022
One of the problems of water resources in Iran is excessive drop in groundwater level, in which Chaharmahal va Bakhtiari province, located in this country, is no exception․ In this study, the trend of spatial and temporal changes in groundwater quality and water balance and the relationship between them in this province were investigated. The WetSpass-M distribution model was used due to the capability of distribution models in simulating watershed hydrological processes. The results showed good accuracy of the model in simulating runoff and basal flow of the study basin. The trend of water quality changes was investigated by calculating the IRWQI index and preparing its zoning maps. For this purpose, 132 samples of well water in different areas of the study were prepared in 2007 to 2017. Spatial distribution maps showed that the groundwater quality in the north and northeast of the region was lower than in other parts. Also, groundwater quality had declined over time. In rangeland,...
2014
In many urban areas, groundwater has been exploited neglecting to wet and dry periods owing to of surface water deficit. In this study, using the percent of normal rainfall index, 36 year (1971-2008) were studied and a drought event and a wet event were determined. The reason to choose two consecutive years is the effect of early wet period on groundwater quality. Physicochemical characteristics include: Na+, TDS, TH, Cl¯and So4¯, meanwhile 38 deep wells in the study area were sampled. After the normalization of data, variograme was drawn and for selecting suitable model for fitness on experimental variograme, less RSS value was used. Through deterministic methods (IDW, GPI, LPI and RBF) and geostatistical estimation (OK, SK, UK, DK, DCK, OCK, SCK and UCK) using cross-validation and RMSE, the best method for interpolation was selected. Results showed that spatial correlation in wet periods had increased considerably and geostatistical estimation methods compared to deterministic methods were superior. Water quality survey results showed that the average areas during wet periods with reduced water quality were lower and improve the quality of groundwater in the region. Water quality survey results showed drought periods in a short time had affected water quality of the ground water and caused low-quality groundwater in the region.
DESALINATION AND WATER TREATMENT, 2019
Climate change is a continuous phenomenon that in some conditions it may lead to drought which substantially affects drinking water resources. Also, there may be other associated impacts, such as seawater interruption, water quality deterioration, drinking water deficiency, etc. While climate change affects surface water resources straight over changes in the significant long-lasting climate variables such as rainfall, evapotranspiration, and air temperature, the relationship between groundwater and climate variables is more complicated. The current study aimed to investigate the special effects of different climatic factors including temperature, precipitation, evaporation, and transpiration on the quality of groundwater resources of Varamin plain, Iran. In this study, out of 80 wells with specific spatial information, sampling was done. In the following, the water samples quality were assessed by considering different parameters including pH, electrical conductivity, total dissolved solids, anions and cations concentrations, and total hardness. Finally, the raw data mapped by Arc GIS 10.3 software. The results showed that these parameters (except pH) along the plain are highly variable and the spatial distribution of the data is not normal, and the frequency of pixels with fewer values is higher than the spatial mean of the region. Spatial distribution of pH was about 0.05 in all the plain. According to our findings, Correlation analysis showed that water resources quality is influenced by climatic factors. Also, it should be noted that the maximum temperature had the highest impact.
International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management
Purpose Groundwater is an important source of water supply in arid and semi-arid areas. The purpose of this study is to predict the impact of climate change on groundwater recharge in an arid environment in Ilam Province, west of Iran. Design/methodology/approach A three-dimensional transient groundwater flow model (modular finite difference groundwater FLOW model: MODFLOW) was used to simulate the impacts of three climate scenarios (i.e. an average of a long-term rainfall, predicted rainfall in 2015-2030 and three years moving average rainfall) on groundwater recharge and groundwater levels. Various climate scenarios in Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator were applied to predict weather data. Findings HadCM3 climatic model and A2 emission scenario were selected as the best methods for weather data generation. Based on the results of these models, annual precipitation will decrease by 3 per cent during 2015-2030. For three emission scenarios, i.e. an average of a long-ter...