Future Energy Supply Possibilities and their Implications on Nepal’s Energy Security (original) (raw)
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Energy Security and Scenario Analysis of Province No. 1 of Federal Republic Nepal
Journal of advance college of engineering and management, 2018
This paper presents the current energy security status of the province No.1 of Nepal using numerous indicators. In addition to that, with the development of six economic growth scenarios i.e. Business As Usual (BAU), Low growth (LOW), High growth (HIG), Accelerated growth (ACC), Normal growth (NOR) and Intervention scenario (INT), the future energy mix and energy security indicators for the year 2040 are also calculated. The paper also gives an overview of the variation/progress of the different indicators during the considered period of study. The study shows that the, energy intensity in the intervention scenario is brought down to 4.44 GJ/$1000 compared to that of 15 GJ/$1000. Also, the electricity consumption per capita is increased to 574 kWh from 116 in the base year. However, these values are only achieved if the provincial government helps implementing central government's plan of promoting the electrical systems instead of traditional fuel woods and fossil fuels system.
Understanding energy crisis in nepal: Assessment of the country's energy demand and supply in 2016
2017 International Electrical Engineering Congress (iEECON)
The world is facing an enormous challenge to provide sufficient quantity of clean energy to its burgeoning population. Energy is a fundamental asset for enabling socio economic development and poverty eradication in any country. Nepal has been suffering from the chaotic energy crisis for about a decade now despite having a potential for generating 43,000 MW of hydroelectricity, 2,100 MW of solar power, and 3,000 MW of wind power. A normal life of its citizens is being crippled with long hours of load shedding and never ending queues in front of the gas stations reflecting the state of the energyhungry country. This paper gives a perspective on the energy crisis in Nepal in order to point out how serious the problem is and also presents some ways how to obtain an immediate relieve through the use of green energy commodities. In addition, the strategic advantages to potential investors are explored that encourage investments into national priority projects facilitated by the progressive policies of the Government of Nepal.
Assessing Nepal's Energy Security and the Role of Indian Cooperation
Energy is regarded as an essential condition for the economic development of a country. It is one of the basics of health, education, nutrition, and the transportation and communication system. However, the availability and accessibility of the energy resources are primary concerns for both the developed and developing countries. All the activities such as economic, commercial and developmental depend on the availability and accessibility of energy sources. Therefore, the question of the reliable supply of energy resources has always been a core concern of the energy-security debate. In the same context, energy security of Nepal also needs to be visualised. Currently, Nepal is facing severe energy crisis despite having huge hydro resources. The focus of the paper is on examining Nepal's energy environment, and how it has emerged as a significant factor in blocking the economic growth and development of the country. The paper also analyses the failure of Nepal's energy policies and programmes which have been undertaken by the government. Besides, the paper investigates the reasons for limited bilateral cooperation between India and Nepal. Hence, at the analytical level, merit rests on examining the challenges that Nepal is facing in energy domain and also explores the possibilities of energy security in Nepal. Nepal's energy crisis has been one of the most important security issues due to the huge imbalances in demand and supply of energy sources. Due to this phenomenon, load-shedding has become part of daily life across the country. On an average, the country experiences more than 10 hours of power cut per day due to its exhausted power grid. Nepal's national power demand is between 900 MW to 1000 MW (Kulkarni, 2012), whereas it supplies only around 780 MW. According to Planning Commission of Nepal, at the end of the 9th five-year plan (1998-2002), only 40 per cent people have access to electricity, and, 60 per cent of Nepal's population is still deprived of electricity (Adhikari, 2006). Nepal's per capita electricity consumption is 80 kilowatt-hours, which is among lowest in the world (Ebinger, 2011). In contrast, the average growth rate per capita energy consumption is more than 10 per cent which is recorded highest in the world. However, the current supply of electricity in Nepal is unreliable, expensive, and insufficient. Afram and Pero argued that " Nepal's electricity supply problems can be attributed to a number of factors, including high transmission and distribution losses, piecemeal expansion of the national grid, high cost of power purchase agreements, inefficiencies at the Nepal Electricity Authority, and underutilization of existing capacity " (Afram and Pero, 2012). The insufficient electricity supply imposes some costs on society, including equity costs, health and environmental impacts, and economic losses due to unreliable connectivity and productivity losses (Bergner, 2013). These electricity shortages have led to a heavy reliance on biomass burning for energy especially in rural areas, which has adverse health and environmental impacts, particularly for women and children. Nepal's Energy Spectrum Biomass and hydropower are two indigenous energy sources of Nepal. Among the entire energy resource base, biomass is the dominant source of energy because it supplies more than 85 per cent of total energy demand of the country; whereas the actual utilization of the hydro resource remains untapped. It is recognized that Nepal has secured 2nd position in term of having hydro resources after Brazil. The hydropower potential of Nepal is theoretically identified as 83,000 MW, out of which around 50 per cent is identified for technically and economically attractive for development (Gautam and Karki, 2004). This hydropower potential can shift Nepal's position from being a poor country towards developing Nepal. Though, the under-development of hydropower tells a different story in this regard. Nepal's energy resources are presently classified into three categories; Traditional Commercial and Alternative sources. Traditional energy resources can be termed as biomass energy resources which are by and large the main sources of energy consumption. Due to the excessive use of biomass products, the forest cover of Nepal has got affected. Energy resources coming from the commercial or business practices are grouped into commercial categories that particularly include the coal, grid electricity and petroleum products. Nepal totally depends on import of petroleum product as it has no proven reserve found in the country. Biogas, solar power, wind and micro level hydropower are categorized into the alternative energy resources (Gupta, 2012).
Energy Crisis and Nepal’s Potentiality
The Initiation, 2010
Energy that is not popularly used and is usually environmentally sound like wind, solar, geothermal is simply regarded as renewable energy. The renewable energy made available through established sources and technology is considered as non-conventional one, if otherwise, conventional. Speaking strictly the forms of alternative energy or renewable energy are environmentally favorable and no negative impacts and economically viable. Alternative energy sources are necessary to explored in context to solve the present problem of energy crisis in Nepal. Being rich in natural resources Nepal posses' high potential of development of energy generation station.
Energy Security and Scenario Analysis of Province One of Federal Democratic Republic of Nepal
Journal of the Institute of Engineering, 2020
This paper presents the current energy security status of the Province One of Federal Democratic Republic Nepal using numerous indicators. In addition to that, with the development of five economic growth scenarios i.e. Normal growth (NOR) (5.80%), Low growth (LOW) (4.20%), High growth (HIG) (6.80%), Accelerated growth (ACC) (8.50%), and Intervention scenario (INT) on Normal growth scenario (NOR), the future energy mix and energy security indicators for the year 2040 are also calculated. The thesis also gives an overview of the variation/progress of the different indicators during the considered period of study (2017-2040). On the basis of compilation of data published by Water and Energy Commission Secretariat (WECS) and use of model developed in Long Range Energy Alternative Planning (LEAP), the study shows the increase in demand of the final energy consumption of province in Normal growth scenario to 101.8 million GJ at 2040 from 80.2 million GJ at 2017, whereby residential sector being the largest energy consuming sector with share of 68% in the total energy mix. However, the energy consumption increases to only 86.8 million GJ at the end year in the Intervention scenario. Similarly, the electricity consumption/demand increases by 120% and 390% in the normal and intervention economic growth scenario respectively. The study also shows that the, energy intensity in the intervention scenario is brought down to 4.44 GJ/USD1000 compared to that of 15 GJ/USD1000 in the base year. Also, the electricity consumption per capita is increased to 574 kWh from 116 kWh in the base year in INT scenario. Moreover, the GHG emission in the normal growth scenario at the end year will be 592.8 kg/Capita i.e. 59.5% increase from the base year. However, with the intervention scenario adopted, the GHG emission can be limited to only 385.2 kg/Capita in the end year, which is 8% increase from the base year value of 371.8 kg/Capita. However, these values are only achieved if the provincial government helps implementing federal government's plan of promoting the renewable energy systems and technologies instead of traditional fuel woods and fossil fuels system.
Nepal is a Himalayan country having a high possibility of renewable energy. Despite the possibility of renewable energy, the development pace of the country tends to be slow and which has affected the socioeconomic development. Particularly, the development of the energy projects in the country has been affected by the current policies and practices of the government of the country. In this paper,the current energy outlook of Nepal has been summarized along with its related recent policies issued by the government for the development of the energy sectorsin the country and forwarded the suggestions regarding the current issues inherent in the energy sectors development in Nepal.To solve the current issues of the country, Nepal needs to consider electricity demand management and transmission line distribution issues soon and review the existing policies andinstitutional arrangements for the promotion of the private sector investment. Moreover,access to finance for investment and people's awareness regarding the use of clean energyis the key barriers to the development of the energy sectors in the country.
Mitigating the current energy crisis in Nepal with renewable energy sources
Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 2019
Abstract Nepal has been suffering from a serious energy crisis for decades. It has severely affected its economic, social and political developments. Owing to the continuously evolving energy situation in Nepal, and the recent progress in renewable energy technologies, this study aims to provide an up to date perspective on the current energy crisis in Nepal. In particular, the current energy production and consumption profiles are reviewed, and the main factors contributing to a widening gap between the energy supply and demand are identified. These factors concern delayed and overpriced hydropower projects, outdated and insufficient energy infrastructure, transmission and distribution losses, energy theft, deficient energy management, lack of energy conservation, low efficiency of equipment, unsustainable energy pricing strategies and unsatisfying energy market regulations. Other essential factors worsening the energy crisis can be attributed to specific geographical and geopolitical problems, the strong dependence on energy imports, and inadequate exploitation of the vast amounts of renewable energy resources. The status of existing and planned large hydropower projects is summarized. The recent policies and investment initiatives of the Nepalese government to support green and sustainable energy are discussed. Furthermore, a long-term outlook on the energy situation in Nepal is outlined using the energy modeling software LEAP in order to show how to exploit the tremendous renewable energy resources in Nepal. Our findings suggest that renewable resources are crucial not only for mitigating the present energy crisis, but also to ultimately provide energy independence for Nepal by establishing reliable and secure sources of energy.
The Initiation 2008130 SUFFREC Energy Crisis and Nepal’s Potentiality
2016
Energy that is not popularly used and is usually environmentally sound like wind, solar, geothermal is simply regarded as renewable energy. The renewable energy made available through established sources and technology is considered as non-conventional one, if otherwise, conventional. Speaking strictly the forms of alternative energy or renewable energy are environmentally favorable and no negative impacts and economically viable. Alternative energy sources are necessary to explored in context to solve the present problem of energy crisis in Nepal. Being rich in natural resources Nepal posses ’ high potential of development of energy generation station.
This paper employs an integrated model for analysis of energy demand and MARKet ALlocation modelling framework for assessing different pathways for the development of energy systems of Nepal. Four energy scenarios are analysed with the time horizon from 2010 to 2030. With high electrification and energy efficiency and demand-side management, the analysis reveals that all three major goals of sustainable energy for all can be achieved by 2030, but that the total discounted systems costs required account for three times the costs of the reference scenario. In the policy scenario, net fuel import costs and greenhouse gas emissions will decline by 20% and 35%, respectively and the share of renewable energy will increase from 3% in 2010 to 22% in 2030. The analysis provides insights for selecting a better pathway for the sustainable energy development and energy security of the country.