How Mumbo-Jumbo Conquered the World: Empirical Analysis of Conspiracy Theories (original) (raw)
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Social Science Information, 2021
This exploratory study aims at identifying macro-social factors associated with the international variance of belief in conspiracy theories. We computed a Conspiracy Index for 22 Western and non-Western countries based on the results of an online survey on conspiratorial beliefs. Stepwise regression analyses show that more than 70% of the international variance of this Conspiracy Index is explained by the following three national variables: the level of democracy, the unemployment rate, and the perceived level of public sector corruption. Conspiracy theories thus appear to be more commonly endorsed in countries where people cannot take an active part in the political life of their country (low level of democracy), where they may feel socially threatened (high unemployment rate), and where institutions and authorities are perceived as untrustworthy (high perception of public sector corruption).
Conspiracy mentality and political orientation across 26 countries
Nature Human Behaviour
People differ in their general tendency to endorse conspiracy theories (that is, conspiracy mentality). Previous research yielded inconsistent findings on the relationship between conspiracy mentality and political orientation, showing a greater conspiracy mentality either among the political right (a linear relation) or amongst both the left and right extremes (a curvilinear relation). We revisited this relationship across two studies spanning 26 countries (combined N = 104,253) and found overall evidence for both linear and quadratic relations, albeit small and heterogeneous across countries. We also observed stronger support for conspiracy mentality among voters of opposition parties (that is, those deprived of political control). Nonetheless, the quadratic effect of political orientation remained significant when adjusting for political control deprivation. We conclude that conspiracy mentality is associated with extreme left-and especially extreme right-wing beliefs, and that this non-linear relation may be strengthened by, but is not reducible to, deprivation of political control.
The psychological and political correlates of conspiracy theory beliefs
Scientific Reports, 2022
Understanding the individual-level characteristics associated with conspiracy theory beliefs is vital to addressing and combatting those beliefs. While researchers have identified numerous psychological and political characteristics associated with conspiracy theory beliefs, the generalizability of those findings is uncertain because they are typically drawn from studies of only a few conspiracy theories. Here, we employ a national survey of 2021 U.S. adults that asks about 15 psychological and political characteristics as well as beliefs in 39 different conspiracy theories. Across 585 relationships examined within both bivariate (correlations) and multivariate (regression) frameworks, we find that psychological traits (e.g., dark triad) and non-partisan/ideological political worldviews (e.g., populism, support for violence) are most strongly related to individual conspiracy theory beliefs, regardless of the belief under consideration, while other previously identified correlates (e.g., partisanship, ideological extremity) are inconsistently related. We also find that the correlates of specific conspiracy theory beliefs mirror those of conspiracy thinking (the predisposition), indicating that this predisposition operates like an 'average' of individual conspiracy theory beliefs. Overall, our findings detail the psychological and political traits of the individuals most drawn to conspiracy theories and have important implications for scholars and practitioners seeking to prevent or reduce the impact of conspiracy theories. Conspiracy theory beliefs are associated with numerous societal harms, including vaccine refusal, prejudice against vulnerable groups, and political violence 1-6. To lay the groundwork for the development of effective and practical tools to minimize such harms, broad, interdisciplinary research programs have developed over the past decade 7-11. The growing literature has collectively identified dozens of individual-level psychological and political factors that are correlated with conspiracy theory beliefs 11. However, the literature has developed in a piecemeal fashion, with singular studies oftentimes considering only a small number of conspiracy theories or potential correlates at a time 12. This brings into question the generalizability of these previous findings. Our central concern is the extent to which the previously identified psychological and political correlates of conspiracy theory beliefs vary-in strength, direction, and statistical significance-depending on the specific conspiracy theory belief being examined. For example, Republicanism and conservatism are typically associated with the belief that Barack Obama faked his birth certificate 13. Such a finding reveals important details about the basic nature of "birther" beliefs and could even be used to develop strategies to correct such beliefs 14. But should we also expect that the factors related to birtherism are also related to beliefs in other conspiracy theories, such as the assertion that the moon landing was faked? Are the characteristics related to birtherism similar to those of the average conspiracy theory believer, or specific to believers in birtherism or a few other conspiracy theories? Similar questions may be asked of the political and psychological characteristics associated with believers of other conspiracy theories. Going further, should we expect because, for example, narcissism is associated with Holocaust denial and support for violence with QAnon beliefs that, on average, those exhibiting a tendency
Journal of Social and Political Psychology, 2021
Despite regular reference to conspiracy theories as a "belief system, " few studies have attempted to explore the structure and organization of conspiracy beliefs beyond an examination of correlations between those beliefs. Employing unique data from two national surveys that includes respondent beliefs in 27 conspiracy theories, we decipher the substantive dimensions along which conspiracy beliefs are organized, as well as subgroupings within those dimensions. We find that variation in these conspiracy beliefs can be accounted for with two dimensions: the first regards partisan and ideological identities, while the other is composed of antisocial orientations, such as narcissism, Machiavellianism, psychopathy, and acceptance of political violence. Importantly, these two dimensions are uncorrelated. We also find that conspiracy beliefs group together by substantive content, such as those regarding partisan actors or science/medicine. Our findings also demonstrate that inferences about the correlates of conspiracy beliefs are highly contingent on the specific conspiracy theories employed by researchers. We provide suggestions for future research in this vein.
Believing in Conspiracy Theories: Evidence from an Exploratory Analysis of Italian Survey Data
South European Society and Politics, 2017
Beliefs in conspiracy theories have attracted significant international media attention in recent years. This phenomenon has been studied in the US but while anecdotal evidence suggests it is also widespread among the Italian public, little evidence has been collected to assess it empirically. Using data from a 2016 survey, this pioneering study of the Italian situation investigates the extent of diffusion of conspiracy theories among Italians and tests several hypotheses concerning individual determinants. The paper finds that conspiracism is indeed widely diffused in Italy. It is negatively associated with education and positively with religiosity, while no correlation is found with political trust. Beliefs in conspiracies are also related to rightwing orientation and support for the populist Five Star Movement. During the last few years, attention to conspiracy theories and their supporters has increased in the Western public debate, both among pundits and scholars. Connected to this, a stream of reflection on a 'post-truth' era has unfolded, in connection with the allegedly significant influence of fake news-false and inaccurate information-on major democratic events like the Brexit referendum in the UK or the 2016 American election. It is not by chance that the topic has been addressed in the most prestigious scientific journals, such as Nature, which has published proposals to enhance knowledge about the phenomenon (Kucharski 2016) and appeals to scientists to correct misinformation (Williamson 2016). Conspiracy theories are often considered a pathology (Fenster 1999) since they appear as true unproved conjectures, repeatedly rejected by the scientific community (Harambam & Aupers 2015). These theories ascribe to particular agents (usually defined as conspirators) an extraordinary capacity to influence personal and collective decisions, to forecast the consequences of their actions, to maintain secrecy about their strategies, and to coordinate themselves in a way that goes well beyond what is realistic in an open society (Sunstein & Vermeule 2009; Sunstein 2014). They tend to assume that complex social phenomena are intentionally orchestrated by hyper-rational and omnipotent collective actors, instead of considering the more plausible option that these results, in case they are real, are unintended consequences of a multitude of decisions made by shortsighted , bounded rational individual actors guided by conflicting purposes (Popper 2012; Pigden 1995). Beliefs in such theories, together with the development of anti-scientific attitudes, seems to be common among the general public, especially among political extremists and less
Swiss Political Science Review, 2017
We explore the relationship between populist attitudes and conspiratorial beliefs on the individual level with two studies using American samples. First, we test whether and what kinds of conspiratorial beliefs predict populist attitudes. Our results show that belief in conspiracies with greedy, but not necessarily purely evil, elites are associated with populism. Second, we test whether having a conspiratorial mentality is associated with all separate subdimensions of populist attitudes people-centrism, anti-elitism, and a goodversus-evil view of politics. Results show a relation only with the rst two, * The nal version of this paper has been published in the Swiss Political Science Review, doi: 10.1111/spsr.12270. This is the resubmitted version, one before the nal accepted. Changes in relation to the published version are minor.
What Drives Conspiracy Beliefs?
Why do people believe in conspiracy theories? This study breaks from much previous research and attempts to explain conspiratorial beliefs with traditional theories of opinion formation. Specifically, we focus on the reception of informational cues given a set of predispositions (political and conspiratorial). We begin with observational survey data to show that there exists a unique predisposition that drives individuals to one degree or another to believe in conspiracy theories. This predisposition appears orthogonal to partisanship and predicts political behaviors including voter participation. Then a national survey experiment is used to test the effect of an informational cue on belief in a conspiracy theory while accounting for both conspiratorial predispositions and partisanship. Our results provide an explanation for individual-level heterogeneity in the holding of conspiratorial beliefs and also indicate the conditions under which information can drive conspiratorial beliefs.
Prevalence and determinants of conspiracy theory believes in Italy
Anecdotal evidence suggests that believing in conspiracy theories is widespread in the Italian public opinion, with a dramatic impact on a number of aspects of the public debate. So far, little empirical evidence has been collected to assess the spread of beliefs in conspiracy theories and to test similarities and differences with other countries. This paper aims at assessing the diffusion of conspiracy theories in the Italian public and testing several hypotheses, derived from previous studies in other national contexts, concerning the association between conspiracist ideation and educational attainment, political trust, religiosity and political partisanship. The data refer to 2016 and come from the ITANES national on-line panel. We show that conspiracism is associated negatively with education and positively with religiosity, while no correlation is found with political trust. Moving to the political sphere, believes in conspiracies show a consistent positive relation with right-wing orientation and with vote for right-wing parties and the populist 5 Stars Movement.
The impact of social desirability bias on conspiracy belief measurement across cultures
Political Science Research and Methods, 2022
Polls asking respondents about their beliefs in conspiracy theories have become increasingly commonplace. However, researchers have expressed concern about the willingness of respondents to divulge beliefs in conspiracy theories due to the stigmatization of those ideas. We use an experimental design similar to a list experiment to decipher the effect of social desirability bias on survey responses to eight conspiratorial statements. Our study includes 8290 respondents across seven countries, allowing for the examination of social desirability bias across various political and cultural contexts. While the proportion of individuals expressing belief in each statement varies across countries, we observe identical treatment effects: respondents systematically underreport conspiracy beliefs. These findings suggest that conspiracy beliefs may be more prominent than current estimates suggest.
Conspiracy theories are ubiquitous when it comes to explaining political events and societal phenomena. Individuals differ not only in the degree to which they believe in specific conspiracy theories, but also in their general susceptibility to explanations based on such theories, that is, their conspiracy mentality. We present the Conspiracy Mentality Questionnaire (CMQ), an instrument designed to efficiently assess differences in the generic tendency to engage in conspiracist ideation within and across cultures.The CMQ is available in English, German, and Turkish. In four studies, we examined the CMQ's factorial structure, reliability, measurement equivalence across cultures, and its convergent, discriminant, and predictive validity. Analyses based on a cross-cultural sample (Study 1a; N = 7,766) supported the conceptualization of conspiracy mentality as a one-dimensional construct across the three language versions of the CMQ that is stable across time (Study 1b; N = 141). Multi-group confirmatory factor analysis demonstrated cross-cultural measurement equivalence of the CMQ items. The instrument could therefore be used to examine differences in conspiracy mentality between European, North American, and Middle Eastern cultures. In Studies 2-4 (total N = 476), we report (re-)analyses of three datasets demonstrating the validity of the CMQ in student and working population samples in the UK and Germany. First, attesting to its convergent validity, the CMQ was highly correlated with another measure of generic conspiracy belief. Second, the CMQ showed patterns of meaningful associations with personality measures (e.g., Big Five dimensions, schizotypy), other generalized political attitudes (e.g., social dominance orientation and right-wing authoritarianism), and further individual differences (e.g., paranormal belief, lack of socio-political control). Finally, the CMQ predicted beliefs in specific conspiracy theories over and above other individual difference measures.