P1.7 the Effect of Spatial Scale of Climate Change Scenarios on Crop Production in the Southeastern United States (original) (raw)

Abstract

We use the CERES family of crop models to assess the effect of different spatial scales of climate change scenarios on the simulated yield changes of maize (Zea mays L.), winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.), and rice (Oryza sativa L.) in the Southeastern United States. The climate change scenarios were produced with the control and doubled CO2 runs of a high resolution regional climate model and a coarse resolution general circulation model, which provided the initial and lateral boundary conditions for the regional model. When considering the effect of climate change only at the individual state level, maize yields decreased in all states for both scenarios (─5 to ─29%), but the differences in yields between the two scenarios were generally significant, the coarse scale showing the larger decreases. Winter wheat yield decreases (─27 to ─48%) were larger than those for maize but the differences in yields produced by the two climate change scenarios were insignificant in most states....

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