Spatiotemporal Evolution of Seasonal Crop-Specific Climatic Indices under Climate Change in Greece Based on EURO-CORDEX RCM Simulations (original) (raw)
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Climate change projections for Greek viticulture as simulated by a regional climate model
Theoretical and Applied Climatology
Viticulture represents an important economic activity for Greek agriculture. Winegrapes are cultivated in many areas covering the whole Greek territory, due to the favorable soil and climatic conditions. Given the dependence of viticulture on climate, the vitivinicultural sector is expected to be affected by possible climatic changes. The present study is set out to investigate the impacts of climatic change in Greek viticulture, using nine bioclimatic indices for the period 1981-2100. For this purpose, reanalysis data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and data from the regional climatic model Regional Climate Model Version 3 (RegCM3) are used. It was found that the examined regional climate model estimates satisfactorily these bioclimatic indices. The results of the study show that the increasing trend of temperature and drought will affect all wine-producing regions in Greece. In vineyards in mountainous regions, the impact is positive, while in islands and coastal regions, it is negative. Overall, it should be highlighted that for the first time that Greece is classified into common climatic characteristic categories, according to the international Geoviticulture Multicriteria Climatic Classification System (MCC system). According to the proposed classification, Greek viticulture regions are estimated to have similar climatic characteristics with the warmer wineproducing regions of the world up to the end of twenty-first century. Wine growers and winemakers should take the findings of the study under consideration in order to take measures for Greek wine sector adaptation and the continuation of high-quality wine production.
Climate Research, 2015
A transient regional climate model simulation with a spatial grid resolution of 10 km (RCM10), nested to a regional simulation with 25 km resolution (RCM25), was carried out over Greece with RegCM3 for the period 1960−2100 under the IPCC A1B scenario. RCM10 precipitation and temperature fields depict the finer regional characteristics over the complex Greek terrain compared to RCM25, but a station-based evaluation for the period 1975−2000 does not reveal a considerable improvement in RCM10 compared to RCM25. Future projections for the earlyfuture period 2021−2050 indicate small changes, with annual temperature increasing mostly over land by less than 1.8°C and precipitation changing by ±15%, being mostly negative in the southern part of the domain. At the end of the century (2071−2100), the projected changes become larger, with mean annual temperature increasing by about 3.4 to 4.2°C over land and by 2.6 to 3.4°C over the sea and precipitation decreasing by 10 to 40%, with a positive gradient from the north to the south. Summer presents the largest future increase in mean near-surface temperature over the Greek mainland, while winter and spring show the largest decreases in precipitation rate. The number of hot days, warm nights, night frosts and continuous dry spell days and length of the growing season are projected to increase slightly in the near-future period, but markedly and consistently in the late 21st century future period in accordance with the generally warmer and drier climate projected from the RCM10 simulation.
Crop–climate relationships of cereals in Greece and the impacts of recent climate trends
Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 2014
Notwithstanding technological developments, agricultural production is still affected by uncontrollable factors, such weather and climate. Within this context, the present study aims at exploring the relative influence of growing season climate on the yields of major cereals (hard and soft wheat, maize, and barley) on a regional scale in Greece. To this end, crop-climate relationships and the impacts of climate trends over the period 1978-2005 were explored using linear regression and change point analysis (CPA). Climate data used include maximum (Tx) and minimum temperature (Tn), diurnal temperature range (Tr), precipitation (Prec), and solar radiation (Rad). Temperature effects were the most substantial. Yields reduced by 1.8-7.1 %/°C with increasing Tx and by 1.4-6.1 %/°C with decreasing Tr. The warming trends of Tn caused bilateral yield effects (from −3.7 to 8.4 %/°C). The fewer significantly increasing Rad and decreasing Prec anomalies were associated with larger yield decreases (within the range of 2.2 % MJ/m 2 /day (for maize) to 4.9 % MJ/m 2 /day (for hard wheat)) and smaller yield increases (from 0.04 to 1.4 %/mm per decade), respectively. Wheat and barley-the most vulnerable cereals-were most affected by the trends of extreme temperatures and least by Tr. On the contrary, solar radiation has proven to be the least affecting climate variable on all cereals. Despite the similarity in the direction of crop responses with both analyses, yield changes were much more substantial in the case of CPA analysis. In conclusion, regional climate change has affected Greek cereal productivity, in a few, but important for cereal production, regions. The results of this study are expected to be valuable in anticipating the effects of weather/climate on other warm regions worldwide, where the upper temperature limit for some cereals and further changes in climate may push them past suitability for their cultivation.
Hydrology Research, 2016
Assessment of future variations of streamflow is essential for research regarding climate and climate change. This study is focused on three agricultural areas widespread in Greece and aims to assess the future response of annual and seasonal streamflow and its impacts on the hydrological regime, in combination with other fundamental aspects of the hydrological cycle in areas with different climate classification. ArcSWAT ArcGIS extension was used to simulate the future responses of streamflow. Future meteorological data were obtained from various regional climate models, and analysed for the periods 2021-2050 and 2071-2100. In all the examined areas, streamflow is expected to be reduced. Areas characterized by continental climate will face minor reductions by the mid-century that will become very intense by the end and thus these areas will become more resistant to future changes. Autumn season will face the strongest reductions. Areas characterized by Mediterranean conditions will be very vulnerable in terms of future climate change and winter runoff will face the most significant decreases. Reduced precipitation is the main reason for decreased streamflow. High values of actual evapotranspiration by the end of the century will act as an inhibitor towards reduced runoff and partly counterbalance the water losses.
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An integrated assessment of climate change impacts for Greece in the near future
Regional Environmental Change, 2011
Climate changes in the Mediterranean region, related to a significant increase in temperature and changes in precipitation patterns, can potentially affect local economies. Agriculture and tourism are undoubtedly the most important economic sources for Greece and these may be more strongly affected by changing future climate conditions. Climate change and their various negative impacts on human life are also detected in their environment; hence this study deals with implications, caused by changing climate, in urban and forest areas. Potential changes for the mid-twenty-first century (2021-2050) are analysed using a high-resolution regional climate model. This paper presents relevant climatic indices, indicative for potential implications which may jeopardise vital economic/environmental sectors of the country. The results provide insights into particular regions of the Greek territory that may undergo substantial impacts due to climate change. It is concluded that the duration of dry days is expected to increase in most of the studied agricultural regions. Winter precipitation generally decreases, whereas an increase in autumn precipitation is projected in most areas. Changing climate conditions associated with increased minimum temperatures (approximately 1.3°C) and decreased winter precipitation by 15% on average suggest that the risk for forest fires is intensified in the future. In urban areas, unpleasantly high temperatures during day and night will increase the feeling of discomfort in the citizens, while flash floods events are expected to occur more frequently. Another impact of climate change in urban regions is the increasing energy demand for cooling in summer. Finally, it was found that continental tourist areas of the Greek mainland will more often face heatwave episodes. In coastal regions, increased temperatures especially at night in combination with high levels of relative humidity can lead to conditions that are nothing less than uncomfortable for foreigners and the local population. In general, projected changes associated with temperature have a higher degree of confidence than those associated with precipitation.
Evaporation and crop evapotranspiration consist the most significant processes of the water cycle on which irrigated agriculture is based in the areas across the Mediterranean. These processes, related to a great extent to the prevailing climate conditions, are expected to change in future as a result of the projected increase in air temperature due to global warming and will affect the availability of water resources and eventually will modify agricultural practices. The present study investigates the effects of climate change on evaporation and crop evapotranspiration losses of the Thessaly Plain located in Central Greece. This plain is dominated by agriculture and irrigated crops sustain economically the local population. Presently, the mostly cultivated irrigated crops are maize, cotton, alfalfa, vegetable crops, vineyards and deciduous fruits and nuts. As a result of the present agricultural practices, the sustainability of the area will depend on how fresh water supplies meet ...
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The paper presents the analysis of a sub-set of high-resolution bias-adjusted simulations from the EURO-CORDEX initiative, in order to examine the changes in the mean climate and the extremes in three Mediterranean islands, namely, Sicily, Crete and Cyprus, in the near future (2031–2060) compared to the present climate (1971–2000), under two future scenarios, i.e. RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The analysis entails commonly used climatic indices of interest related to the islands’ agricultural sector. The results indicate robust increases for both the mean maximum and minimum temperatures on a seasonal basis, as well as for the temperature related extremes under both climate scenarios. On the contrary, the changes in precipitation are less pronounced as the changes in the seasonal precipitation are not found statistically significant for the three islands under both scenarios. The projected warming combined with the projected unchanged precipitation pattern in the future, especially in spring a...