Have Natural Disasters Become Deadlier? (original) (raw)
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Natural disasters and economic development: impact, response and preparedness
This paper explores the links between natural disasters and economic development, and attempts to outline a framework for thinking about these links. The short-term effects of disasters are well documented, but the long-run impact of natural disasters on economic growth and development remain a subject of debate. The paper summarizes the available knowledge of the long-term economic impact of natural disasters on economic development. It also draws links between disasters, resource management and conflict. The paper argues that developing countries-especially those where disasters appear to strike with remarkable frequency, need to develop a more robust adaptation and response capability to disasters as part of development planning. The paper makes the case for better global and regional financing mechanisms to respond to disasters and more market-based financing mechanisms than have been used hitherto and an emphasis on forecasting research. It also highlights the need for more work on the links between climate change and the frequency of disasters (with climate change as the ultimate natural disaster but whose manifestation will come through more frequent smaller disasters) and a new way of looking at disaster resilience as a part of, rather than as an add-on to development strategy.
Dealing with increased risk of natural disasters: challenges and options
2003
The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to farther debate, Natural disaster risk is emerging as an increasingly important constraint on economic development and poverty reduction. This paper first sets out the key stylized facts in the area-that the costs of disaster have been increasing, seem set to continue to increase, and bear especially heavily on the poorest. It then reviews the key economic issues at stake, focusing in particular on the actual and prospective roles of, and interaction between, market instruments and public interventions in dealing with disaster risk. Key sources of market failure include the difficulty of risk spreading and, perhaps even more fundamental, the Samaritan's dilemma: the underinvestment in protective measures associated with the rational expectation that others will provide support if disaster occurs. Innovations addressing each of these are discussed, JEL Classification Numbers: H30 s H41 1 O10, G22
Environment Pollution and i v n E Climate Change, 2018
Abstract Over ages, disasters have been considered as natural calamities that humanity has no control or role. However, the frequency, complexity, scope and destructive capacity of disasters continue to escalate over time, implying other factors are at play. The vulnerabilities of communities are increasing through a myriad of development practices at individual, local, national and international levels. Notable amongst the disaster hazards that have increased over time include: protracted civil strife/wars; emerging diseases; food insecurity; climate change; and pollution. To a large extent, they manifest development practices that do not conform to the tenets of sustainable development as espoused in the Brandtland Commission resolutions. This article reviews selected examples of development practices that have occasioned disasters, debunking the myth that all disasters are entirely attributable to natural causes. For each disaster considered, the article recommends a raft of practices that should be embraced to ensure development practices are not responsible for the increased incidences of disasters. Keywords: Disasters, Manifestation, Unsustainable Development
Economic development and the impacts of natural disasters
Economics Letters, 2007
It is generally understood that as a country develops, it devotes greater resources to safety, including implementing precautionary measures designed to reduce the impacts of natural disasters. With the recent devastating human and economic impacts of the tsunami in Southeast Asia ...
Can we prevent disasters using socioeconomic and political policy tools?
International journal of disaster risk reduction, 2020
Can a nation prevent a hazard-related disaster by investing in socioeconomic and political policy tools? Drawing on 8 global datasets (1960-2016) and using a fixed effects logit model, we examine the importance of socioeconomic and political factors in changing the likelihood of disasters in 224 countries. We find that socioeconomic factors are of more importance than political factors. Lowincome countries are significantly more disaster prone than high-income countries; this effect is stronger and more robust for natural than technological disasters. Higher national population density increases the probability that a hazard turns into a disaster; this effect is much stronger and robust for technological than natural disasters. Educational endowment has a negative and statistically significant effect on the probability of all disasters, especially for natural-related disasters. In terms of political factors, there is no evidence that government composition and federalism influence a country's natural or technological disaster probability. Nevertheless, there is very weak evidence that quality of governance has a positive and statistically significant effect on the likelihood of disasters. Our findings point out that we can prevent natural and technological disasters by investing in economic development, investing in education, and managing disaster prone in high urban areas. These findings highlight the importance of focusing efforts on addressing larger scale macroeconomic, social and cultural distortions that generate vulnerability, as well as the prioritizing investment in both the Sendai Priorities and the Sustainable Development Goals that previously have not been linked to disaster probability.
The Role of a Macro-Economic Model for Disaster Risk Reduction Policy in Developing Countries
IDRiM journal, 2014
It has been noted that in recent years disaster risk reduction (hereafter DRR) investment, in particular such investment prior to a disaster, is important in dealing with increasingly large-scale natural disasters that have serious socioeconomic impacts. Especially, developing countries are in a vulnerable position vis-à-vis natural disasters, as the scale of economies in these countries is small and they do not foster a culture of reducing disaster risks. As a result, disasters directly harm their economic underpinnings, inhibiting their economic growth and sending them back into the poverty trap. DRR investment prior to a disastrous event is an extremely effective measure of preventing or ameliorating such conditions. However, no definitive method for evaluating the quantitative effects of DRR investment as a decision making tool has been established. Given this situation, we develop a model in this study that allows the quantitative evaluation of DRR investment focused on developing countries. Moreover, we use data from Pakistan to confirm the efficacy of the model, as well as to confirm that DRR investment contributes to economic growth and the alleviation of poverty in developing countries.
Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia
Studies have shown that natural disasters could pose a spectrum of challenges to human development, especially in developing countries. United Nations Development Programme (UNDP, 2004)) estimates that low human development countries accounted for more than half of reported casualties due to natural disasters for the last two decades. The study also estimates that nearly 85 percent of the people exposed to natural disasters live in either medium or low human development countries. Other related studies have shown that corrupted officials in poor countries would increase the vulnerability of these countries to natural disasters. Thus, the purpose of the present study is to investigate the impact of human development indicators, such as income per capita and human capital development (education level), as well as corruption (a measure of governance) on fatalities and damages due to natural disasters in selected 77 developing countries. By employing the two-step system GMM estimators, we identified several economic variables that are significantly related to fatalities and property damages due to natural disasters, such as flood, storm, earthquake, landslides, drought, extreme temperature, wildfire, and volcanic eruption. By exploring the impact of economic development, population density, unemployment rate, investment, government consumption expenditure, education, openness, and corruption, on disaster preparedness, it would be useful for both government and international disaster risk reduction and mitigation agencies to re-evaluate their approach towards target recipients in the future.
2019
Regardless of the origin, financial and socio-economic crises feature combinations of adverse conditions: lack of access to financing/credit, slump in investments, household demand and consumption, a falling GDP, high deficits and debt ratios, loss of income, unemployment, shrinkage of state provisions, poverty, enforced migration, homelessness, and an incapacity to satisfy basic needs. These translate into losses for collective and private agencies in the crisis community. The systemically interrelated losses are not only financial and economic but also physical, human, social, and political (e.g., loss of trust in political leadership). Each agency that suffers losses experiences an increase in vulnerability because vulnerability, by definition, is a susceptibility to loss. Resilience is also badly affected as a result of the crisis impacting properties through redundancy, robustness, diversity, self-sufficiency, autonomy, and flexibility. Therefore, communities faced with socio-e...
Reducing disaster risk: A challenge for development
2004
Natural disasters exert an enormous toll on development. In doing so, they pose a significant threat to prospects for achieving the Millennium Development Goals in particular, the overarching target of halving extreme poverty by 2015. Annual economic losses associated with such disasters averaged US$ 75.5 billion in the 1960s, US$ 138.4 billion in the 1970s, US$ 213.9 billion in the 1980s and US$ 659.9 billion in the 1990s. The majority of these losses are concentrated in the developed world and fail to adequately capture the impact of the disaster on the poor who often bear the greatest cost in terms of lives and livelihoods, and rebuilding their shattered communities and infrastructure. Today, 85 percent of the people exposed to earthquakes, tropical cyclones, floods and droughts live in countries having either medium or low human development. This Report is premised on the belief that in many countries the process of development itself has a huge impact-both positive and negative-on disaster risk. It shows how countries that face similar patterns of natural hazards-from floods to droughtsoften experience widely differing impacts when disasters occur. The impact depends in large part on the kind of development choices they have made previously. As countries become more prosperous, for example, they are often better able to afford the investments needed to build houses more likely to withstand earthquakes. At the same time, the rush for growth can trigger haphazard urban development that increases risks of large-scale fatalities during such a disaster. The same is true in many other areas. While humanitarian action to mitigate the impact of disasters will always be vitally important, the global community is facing a critical challenge: How to better anticipate-and then manage and reduce-disaster risk by integrating the potential threat into its planning and policies. To help frame such efforts, this Report introduces a pioneering Disaster Risk Index (DRI) that measures the relative vulnerability of countries to three key natural hazardsearthquake, tropical cyclone and flood-identifies development factors that contribute to risk, and shows in quantitative terms, just how the effects of disasters can be either reduced or exacerbated by policy choices. Our hope is that the index will both help generate renewed interest in this critical development issue and help bring together stakeholders around more careful and coherent planning to mitigate the impact of future disasters. Mark Malloch Brown Administrator United Nations Development Programme FOREWORD development and disaster risk, we wanted to highlight these development choices. Disaster risk is not inevitable, but on the contrary can be managed and reduced through appropriate development actions. This is the message we want to convey in this Report to our programme countries, our donors, our partners in the United Nations system, regional and international organisations, civil society and the private sector. A great deal of support was provided in preparation of this publication, known as the World Vulnerability Report when the process began in 2000, and we acknowledge many generous contributions. Contributors The technical production of the Report was made by the following team: Mark Pelling (editor), Andrew Maskrey, Pablo Ruiz and Lisa Hall. Yasemin Aysan was responsible for the overall coordination of the Report in its first stages, with critical support from Ben Wisner and Haris Sanahuja. The preparation of the Disaster Risk Index (DRI) was originally conceived during the meeting of a Group of Experts in 2000 and commissioned to the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) Global Resource Information Database (GRID) in Geneva. Main scientific collaborators include Hy Dao, Pascal Peduzzi, Christian Herold and Frédéric Mouton. Maxx Dilley and Haris Sanahuja provided key guidance in concepts and definitions. We would like also to thank those whose work has directly or indirectly contributed to the success of this research, such as Brad Lyon and his colleagues from the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate Prediction at Columbia University for his methodology on determining physical drought. Regina Below and Debarati Guha-Sapir for EM-DAT databases and Bruce Harper, Greg Holland and Nanette Lombarda for input on tropical cyclones. This work also benefited from the contributions of