An Examination of the Employment Recovery in the United States in the Wake of the COVID-19 Pandemic (original) (raw)
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What’s Holding Back Employment in the Recovery from the COVID-19 Pandemic?
Economic commentary, 2021
Bureau of Labor Statistics data indicate that five million jobs lost during the pandemic have not been recovered, but it is difficult to ascertain how many workers will return to available jobs. The Census Bureau's Household Pulse Survey includes a detailed set of reasons for nonemployment, including households' responses to the pandemic that provide a new perspective on reasons for not working. Among prime-age workers, reasons for nonemployment during the SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) pandemic have shifted substantially from mostly labor demand reasons to primarily labor supply inhibitors. At this point, most nonemployment is connected to three categories: sickness and concerns about COVID-19; childand eldercare responsibilities; and the residual category "other reasons." The persistence of these answers and the characteristics of individuals' providing these answers point to barriers to fully recovering prior employment rates.
Identifying key indicators of job loss trends during COVID-19 and beyond
Social Sciences & Humanities Open, 2021
International Concern, has claimed over 2.7 million lives worldwide. In the absence of vaccinations, social distancing and lockdowns emerged as the means to curb infection spread, with the downside of bringing the world economy to a standstill. In this work, we explore the epidemiological, socioeconomic and demographic factors affecting the unemployment rates of United States that may contribute towards policymaking to contain contagion and mortality while balancing the economy in the future. We identify the ethnic groups and job sectors that are affected by the pandemic and demonstrate that Gross Domestic Product (GDP), race, age group, lockdown severity and infected count are the key indicators of post-COVID job loss trends.
The Journal of Economic Inequality
This paper examines employment patterns by wage group over the course of the coronavirus pandemic in the United States using microdata from two well-known data sources from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics: the Current Employment Statistics and the Current Population Survey. We find establishments paying the lowest average wages and the lowest wage workers had the steepest decline in employment and experienced the most persistent losses. We disentangle the extent to which the effect observed for low wage workers is due to these workers being concentrated within a few low wage sectors of the economy versus the pandemic affecting low wage workers in a number of sectors across the economy. Our results indicate that the experience of low wage workers is not entirely due to these workers being concentrated in low wage sectorsfor many sectors, the lowest wage quintiles in that sector also has had the worst employment outcomes. From April 2020 to May 2021, between 23% and 46% of the decline in employment among the lowest wage establishments was due to within-industry changes. Another important finding is that even for those who remain employed during the pandemic, the probability of becoming part-time for economic reasons increased, especially for lowwage workers.
The Heterogeneous Labor Market Impacts of the Covid-19 Pandemic
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2020
The pandemic has exacerbated pre-existing inequalities 1 Individuals in low-earning jobs much more likely to lose employment during the pandemic 2 Partly due to larger impacts of pandemic on employment in low-paying occupations and industries 3 But individuals from disadvantaged groups also more likely to lose employment when compared to others with the same job background 4 Low earners have benefited less from post-April 2020 employment recovery 5 CARES Act provisions were strongly progressive, but recipiency rates among displaced low earners were low The Heterogeneous Labor Market Impacts of the Covid-19 Pandemic Cortes & Forsythe (York & UIUC) Introduction Data Distributional Impacts Demographic Groups Earnings Public Policy Conclusions Key Findings The pandemic has exacerbated pre-existing inequalities 1 Individuals in low-earning jobs much more likely to lose employment during the pandemic 2 Partly due to larger impacts of pandemic on employment in low-paying occupations and industries 3 But individuals from disadvantaged groups also more likely to lose employment when compared to others with the same job background 4 Low earners have benefited less from post-April 2020 employment recovery 5 CARES Act provisions were strongly progressive, but recipiency rates among displaced low earners were low The Heterogeneous Labor Market Impacts of the Covid-19 Pandemic Cortes & Forsythe (York & UIUC) Introduction Data Distributional Impacts Demographic Groups Earnings Public Policy Conclusions Key Findings The pandemic has exacerbated pre-existing inequalities 1 Individuals in low-earning jobs much more likely to lose employment during the pandemic 2 Partly due to larger impacts of pandemic on employment in low-paying occupations and industries 3 But individuals from disadvantaged groups also more likely to lose employment when compared to others with the same job background 4 Low earners have benefited less from post-April 2020 employment recovery 5 CARES Act provisions were strongly progressive, but recipiency rates among displaced low earners were low The Heterogeneous Labor Market Impacts of the Covid-19 Pandemic Cortes & Forsythe (York & UIUC) Introduction Data Distributional Impacts Demographic Groups Earnings Public Policy Conclusions Key Findings The pandemic has exacerbated pre-existing inequalities 1 Individuals in low-earning jobs much more likely to lose employment during the pandemic 2 Partly due to larger impacts of pandemic on employment in low-paying occupations and industries 3 But individuals from disadvantaged groups also more likely to lose employment when compared to others with the same job background 4 Low earners have benefited less from post-April 2020 employment recovery 5 CARES Act provisions were strongly progressive, but recipiency rates among displaced low earners were low The Heterogeneous Labor Market Impacts of the Covid-19 Pandemic Cortes & Forsythe (York & UIUC) Introduction Data Distributional Impacts Demographic Groups Earnings Public Policy Conclusions Key Findings The pandemic has exacerbated pre-existing inequalities 1 Individuals in low-earning jobs much more likely to lose employment during the pandemic 2 Partly due to larger impacts of pandemic on employment in low-paying occupations and industries 3 But individuals from disadvantaged groups also more likely to lose employment when compared to others with the same job background 4 Low earners have benefited less from post-April 2020 employment recovery 5 CARES Act provisions were strongly progressive, but recipiency rates among displaced low earners were low The Heterogeneous Labor Market Impacts of the Covid-19 Pandemic Cortes & Forsythe (York & UIUC) Introduction Data Distributional Impacts Demographic Groups Earnings Public Policy Conclusions Key Findings The pandemic has exacerbated pre-existing inequalities 1 Individuals in low-earning jobs much more likely to lose employment during the pandemic 2 Partly due to larger impacts of pandemic on employment in low-paying occupations and industries 3 But individuals from disadvantaged groups also more likely to lose employment when compared to others with the same job background 4 Low earners have benefited less from post-April 2020 employment recovery 5 CARES Act provisions were strongly progressive, but recipiency rates among displaced low earners were low The Heterogeneous Labor Market Impacts of the Covid-19 Pandemic
International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 2021
The resilience of the healthcare industry, often considered recession-proof, is being tested by the COVID-19 induced reductions in physical mobility and restrictions on elective and non-emergent medical procedures. We assess early COVID-19 effects on the dynamics of decline and recovery in healthcare labor markets in the United States. Descriptive analyses with monthly cross-sectional data on unemployment rates, employment, labor market entry/exit, and weekly work hours among healthcare workers in each healthcare industry and occupation, using the Current Population Survey from July 2019−2020 were performed. We found that unemployment rates increased dramatically for all healthcare industries, with the strongest early impacts on dentists’ offices (41.3%), outpatient centers (10.5%), physician offices (9.5%), and home health (7.8%). Lower paid workers such as technologists/technicians (10.5%) and healthcare aides (12.6%) were hit hardest and faced persistently high unemployment, whil...
2022
The COVID-19 pandemic that started in November-December 2019 in Wuhan (China) is one of the worse that the World did face since the Spanish Flu of 1918. Unfortunately, currently, many regions of the world including the US and EU are experiencing their 8th or 9th wave of COVID-19 pandemic despite massive and intensive Vaccination campaign. Furthermore, on December 29, 2022, at 14:00 GMT, Worldometer (2022) finds that worldwide, cases of COVID-19 were about 663, 659, 031. Deaths associated with COVID-19 were about 6, 692, 494 while 635, 734, 177 did recover from COVID-19 pandemic. In US, on the same day (December 29, 2022), cases of COVID-19 were about 102, 407, 740. Deaths associated with COVID-19 were about 1, 117, 194 while 99, 367, 089 did recover from COVID-19 pandemic. Unfortunately, even if currently the Indirect Effects of COVID-19 pandemic seem to be behind us, they were deeply dramatic when they took place during the Emerging, Growth and Maturity Stages of the Pandemic from March 2020 to September 2021. In fact, during this period, the COVID-19 pandemic has been associated with an ' Economic Crisis ' in US and Worldwide (James Michael Walker, 2022). Accordingly, World Economic Forum (2020) found that the COVID-19 pandemic has caused the biggest blow to the US economy since the Great Depression of the 30s. In fact, US GDP fell at a 32.9% annualized rate, the deepest decline since records began back in 1947. As a result, according to Pew Research (2020), the COVID-19 outbreak and the economic downturn it engendered swelled the ranks of unemployed Americans by more than 14 million, from 6.2 million in February to 20.5 million in May 2020. The worse case scenario, compared to the 2007-2009 Financial crisis, Pew Research (2020) found that the rise in the number of unemployed workers due to COVID-19 is substantially greater than the increase due to the Great Depression (2007-2009 Financial crisis), when the number of unemployed increased by 8.8 million from the end of 2007 to the beginning of 2010. Furthermore, some experts went far to believe that the unemployment rate was going to reach 20% or more if required measures were not taken to contain and reduce the economic implications of the COVID-19 pandemic. By so doing, frustration, fear, panic and impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and lockdowns did amplify the already existing Socioeconomic inequalities in Health, Education, Jobs, Income, Wealth and Residential Goods and Services mainly for the Peripheral Populations. In fact, the Socioeconomic Inequalities associated with the COVID-related Economic Crisis were not equally distributed. In fact, they (the inequalities) were more pronounced in Highly Urbanized, Industrialized, Prosperous and Dense Cities and States such as New York particularly for the Peripheral Populations and Spaces. Accordingly, James A. Parrott and Lina Moe (2020) found that in New York City, the Covid-19-related job losses are heavily concentrated among low-wage workers, hitting persons of color, immigrants, young workers, and less educated workers the hardest. Furthermore, James A. Parrott and Lina Moe (2020) found that as New York City re-opens further in coming weeks, more jobs will return but it is likely that recovery will proceed unevenly, with public health concerns overshadowing other forces. While it is impossible to precisely predict where the recovery will be by the end of this year (2020), it is likely that the city could end 2020 with 500,000 to 600,000 fewer jobs than at the beginning of the year,with half of that job deficit stemming from the face-to-face industries including restaurants, local retail, neighborhood services, and arts and entertainment. Unfortunately, these above activities are considered as Unskilled-intensive and Low-skilled-intensive ones. Furthermore, even in the case of COVID-19-Reopening, the vulnerability of the employment of women, Asian Americans, immigrants and workers without a bachelor's degree was going to remain high (Pew Research, 2020). In other words, disparities in economic costs of COVID-19 pandemic is mainly due to the fact that job losses during the economic downturn were concentrated in leisure and hospitality sector which accounted for 35% of the total loss in jobs from February to May while it was only 11% of total non-farm employment in February 2020 (Pew Research, 2020). By so doing, the Disparities in the outcome of COVID-19 Pandemic could be embedded in Structural Dimension. In fact, James Michael Walker (2022) finds that he rise of the Neoliberal capitalism in the 80s has been associated with the Proletarianization Process. As a result, the move towards Service-oriented and Knowledge-intensive Economy in US has concentrated ' Peripheral unskilled and low-skilled workforce ' in the production of low-added and medium-added services while the US Highly-skilled and High-income Workforce has focused on the Production and distribution of Upstream Services. Unfortunately, as US is caught into High-income Trap, Lower and Moderate Income Workforce accounts for 80% of US workforce. Furthermore, low-wage workers account for 44% of US workforce. Of them, more than 50% is working in the leisure and hospitality sector. As a result, while the majority of US workforce such as Peripheral Populations including for example Asian, Black and Hispanic workers were about equally likely to be employed in this sector (leisure and hospitality sector) prior to the COVID-19 outbreak (Pew Research, 2020), the unemployment rate of the above category of populations did increase dramatically when the COVID-19 pandemic hit. Therefore, Pew Research Cener (2020) found that about one-in-five Black, Asian and Hispanic workers were likely unemployed in May 2000 . Furthermore, One-in-five immigrants were likely unemployed in May 2020. Moreover, more than one-in-four young adult workers were likely without work in May 2020. Since then, the amplification of the stressors associated with the increase of the socioeconomic inequalities due to the COVID-19 pandemic did put Peripheral Populations at a greater risk of Urban-related Diseases (Chronic Diseases, Obesity, Suicide, Addictions and Mental health and Behavioral Diseases) (James Michael Walker, 2022) that in turn did amplify their already existing vulnerability to COVID-19 and associated mortality. Key Words: The COVID-19 pandemic; Indirect Effects of COVID-19 pandemic; Economic Crisis; Highly Urbanized, Industrialized, Prosperous and Dense Cities and States; New York City; Peripheral unskilled and low-skilled workforce.
COVID-19 and rising unemployment : where are we now?
2020
COVID-19 pandemic has radically transformed our working lives and the labour market. Many workers have faced a digital leap in their working conditions as workplaces have closed their doors. At the same time, a number of workers unable to work from home have faced temporary or permanent layoffs. In the beginning of April 2020, the International Labour Organization (ILO) estimated that COVID-19 will likely lead to a loss of 195 million full-time jobs globally by the end of this year. For Europe, the estimate was around 12 million lost full-time jobs. While the numbers are based on estimated lost working hours, they only reflect the impact on full-time jobs, without considering those employed on informal, parttime and short-term conditions. In reality, the number could be much larger.
The COVID-19 and its Impact on Global Employment
April-June, 2021
The purpose of this paper is to consider the influence, scope, limitations, barriers, and challenges imposed on employment by the existing condition brought on by coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) health crisis, along with the potential consequences. An in-depth literature review was conducted of the current COVID-19 crisis, along with similar pandemics in recent history, and the effect of such events on global employment, unemployment, and economic activities. The research focus is primarily on the impact of COVID-19 from January to May 2020 , i.e. the first months of global awareness of the threat posed by the virus In January 2020, the increasing number of COVID-19 infections resulted in orders to stay-at-home or observe social and physical distancing restrictions, which subsequently led to the shutdown of industrial production, financial markets, corporate offices, businesses, events, and different operation management activities in order to minimize the transmission of the virus. The findings suggest that the increasing number of lockdowns and restrictions on national and international travel by air, land, or sea, as well as the shutdown of production, operation, and marketing activities jeopardized and even collapsed some economic sectors and systems. Consequently, worldwide unemployment increased drastically, in regions like the United States, Europe, and the Arab States. A sudden rise in worker migration further aggravated the situation and placed an additional burden on state government entities. It is likely that it will take years for the global economy to recover from the economic and employment challenges brought about by this crisis.