The reaction of a heterogeneous population to perturbation. An interpretative model of mortality trends in Russia (original) (raw)
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On the eve of the Second World War, the USSR was lagging far behind the rest of the developed world with regard to life expectancy: 16 years behind France, for instance. This gap was virtually filled in during the period 1946-60, but the progress marked time in the early 1960s and then gave way to a slow erosion. The mortality decline resumed during the 1980s, with a sharp acceleration in 1985. In the space of three years, male life expectancy increased by three years, as though for each year that had been lived the slate was wiped clean and the number left to live was unaltered. In 1991, however, there was a spectacular new turnaround: again in the space of three years, not only was all the previous gain lost, but men's life expectancy was cut back by six years. The end of the restrictions on alcohol sales, and the economic disorganisation brought about by the change of political regime, have been blamed for this sharp regression. In the present study, A. Avdeev, A. Blum, S. Zakharov and E. Andreev suggest another possibility, namely that it is largely, or at least in part, the result of a return from the exceptionally favourable period 1985-90 - when the population most at risk of dying from a number of causes was temporarily spared - to the evolution observed in previous decades. The reversal in 1991-95 was impressive, and the mortality trends continue to be unfavourable today. The present article proposes another methodological approach and a somewhat different interpretation of Russian mortality from the studies published in Population in recent years, in particular issues 1989-6, 1994-2, 1995-4/5 and 1996-3 (Population: An English Selection, 7-1995, 8-1996 and 9-1997).
Demographic implications of the Russian mortality crisis
World Development, 1998
The Russian mortality crisis of 1990-95 represents the most precipitous decline in national life expectancy ever recorded in the absence of war, oppression, famine, or major disease. Using standard demographic techniques, we develop a model Russian mortality schedule. Applying this schedule, we estimate that there were 1.36 to 1.57 million premature deaths during 1990-95, equivalent to between 14 and 16% of all deaths recorded in Russia during that period. The deaths were distributed unevenly among the population, with approximately 70% occurring among men, and a disproportionate number among working-age individuals. Overall, the 1990-95 crisis cost between 25 and 34 million person-years lived, an order of magnitude greater than the corresponding figure for US casualties in the Vietnam War and roughly three times the number of forgone person-years lived due to AIDS mortality in the United States during 1990-95. The repercussions of the 1990-95 mortality crisis in Russia and its aftermath will be felt for decades to come. We estimate that Russia's population will be about 7.5 million less in 2025 than it would have been had the crisis not occurred. The male/female ratio will also be reduced, particularly among the elderly. Perhaps the only silver lining of the crisis is that it will dampen the expected increase in Russia's elderly dependency ratio, thereby decreasing the burden on the public pension system.
Causes of the Russian mortality crisis: Evidence and interpretations
World Development, 1998
During 1992-94 life expectancy at birth in Russia dropped by 6.1 years for men and by 3.3 years for women. Very little individual-level evidence linking mortality experience with social conditions and behaviors is available. This article puts together evidence from analysis of routinely collected data on changes in Russian mortality. These data suggest that the mortality upsurge cannot be attributed to absolute deprivation, collapse of the health system or environmental pollution. Instead, psychological stress caused by the shock of an abrupt and severe economic transition is likely to have played a major role mediated in part by the adverse health effects of excessive alcohol consumption.
Population Decline in the Central Region of Russian Federation (1990-2010)
After the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 the mortality reached 1.807.400 people in 1992, with the birthrate falling to 1.587.600 people. The process of depopulation began. Nearly 2 million people died annually in Russia according to the official data of the Russian Federal State Statistics Service in 1993-2010. A special and a very serious problem is a middle-aged men mortality that is 7-8 times higher, than in the developed countries. From 1992 to 2010 in Russia died 40.812.000 people, born -26.568.000. Total decline amounted to 13.344.000 people. The present study considers some social-
2015
In all countries, the study of long-term cause-specifi c mortality trends is hampered by discontinuities that distort statistical series as a result of periodic revisions to the classifi cation of causes of death. In very rare cases, when an offi ce responsible for cause-of-death statistics has produced classifi cations for one or two transition years under two different revisions (as in England and Wales when the Eighth Revision of the International Classifi cation of Diseases (ICD-8) was replaced by the Ninth Revision (ICD-9); see Meslé and Vallin 1993) , observed transition coeffi cients can be used to reassign deaths classifi ed under the old revision to the various items of the new revision. Unfortunately, in most cases, no such double classifi cation is available, and a way has to be found to estimate the transition coeffi cients ex post. This study took a method that we had developed for France in order to recon-struct continuous cause-specifi c time series of deaths, classif...
The evolving pattern of avoidable mortality in Russia
2003
Life expectancy at birth in Russia is now over 12 years less than in western Europe. 1 The reasons for this difference are complex, reflecting the impact of factors acting at different levels and different points over the life course. One perspective is provided by the health field concept, which identifies four inputs to health: genetic predisposition; environmental circumstances; individual behaviour and lifestyle; and health services. 2 Although a combination of environmental and lifestyle factors, in particular the social consequences of rapid transition and excessive alcohol consumption, superimposed on high rates of smoking and poor nutrition, are the major determinants of the burden of disease afflicting the countries of the former Soviet Union, 3 it is also likely that timely and effective health care could ameliorate their effects.
Geographical diversity of cause-of-death patterns and trends in Russia
Demographic Research, 2005
This paper performs a systematic analysis of all currently available Russian data on mortality by region, census year (1970, 1979, 1989, and 1994) and cause of death. It investigates what links may be found between these geographical variations in causespecific mortality, the negative general trends observed since 1965, and the wide fluctuations of the last two decades. For that, four two-year periods of observation were selected where it was possible to calculate fairly reliable mortality indicators by geographic units using census data for 1970, 1979, 1989, and micro-census data for 1994, and a clustering model was used.