The Comparative African Economics of Inclusive Development and Military Expenditure in Fighting Terrorism (original) (raw)
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2017
This study investigates the role of inclusive human development and military expenditure in fighting terrorism in 53 African countries for the period 1998-2012. The empirical evidence is based on contemporary, non-contemporary and instrumental variable Fixed Effects regressions. Inclusive development is not a sufficient condition for the fight against terrorism whereas military expenditure can be effectively employed to mitigate the phenomenon. Significant negative effects are established only when endogeneity is accounted for by means of non-contemporary and instrumental-variables approaches. Hence, the policy effectiveness of employed tools is contingent on whether they are engaged proactively (i.e. noncontemporarily) or not. From the findings, the propensity of military expenditure to fight transnational terrorism is higher in: (i) middle income countries vis-à-vis their low income counterparts; (ii) oil-rich countries compared to oil-poor countries and (iii) Christiandominated c...
Forthcoming: Journal of Policy Modeling, 2020
This study examines complementarities between inclusive development, military expenditure and political stability in the fight against terrorism in 53 African countries for the period 1998-2012. Hence the policy variables employed in the study are inclusive development, military expenditure and political stability. The empirical evidence is based on Generalised Method of Moments (GMM) with forward orthogonal deviations. The paper reports three main findings. Firstly, military expenditure and inclusive development are substitutes and not complements. Secondly, it is more relevant to use political stability as a complement of inclusive development than to use inclusive development as a complement of political stability. Thirdly, it can be broadly established that military expenditure and political stability are complementary. In the light of the sequencing, complementarity and substitutability, when the three policy variables are viewed within the same framework, it is more feasible to first pursue political stability and then complement it with military expenditure and inclusive development.
Purpose-The study investigates the role of inclusive human development and military expenditure in modulating the effect of terrorism on governance. Design/methodology/approach-It is based on 53 African countries for the period 1998-2012 and interactive Generalised Method of Moments is employed. Six governance indicators from the World Bank and two terrorism variables are used, namely: domestic and transnational terrorism dynamics. Findings-The following main findings are established. There is a negative net effect on governance (regulation quality and corruption-control) when inclusive human development is used to reduce terrorism. There is a positive net impact on governance (" voice and accountability " and rule of law) when military expenditure is used to reduce domestic terrorism. Originality/value-We have complemented the sparse literature on the use of policy variables to mitigate the effect of policy syndromes on macroeconomic outcomes.
Military expenditure, terrorism and capital flight: Insights from Africa
In spite of the growing consensus of the need to utilise military expenditure to help combat terrorism, our understanding of the threshold at which military expenditure reduces the effect of terrorism stemming from capital flight remains largely underexplored. We employed a panel data of 37 African countries from 1996-2010 and determined that the thresholds are apparent exclusively in Quantile Regressions with military expenditure thresholds ranging from: 4.224 to 5.612 for domestic terrorism, 5.734 to 7.363 for unclear terrorism and 4.710 to 6.617 for total terrorism. No thresholds are apparent in transnational terrorism related regressions. Depending on the terrorist target, the findings broadly show that a critical mass of between 4.224 and 7.363 of military expenditure as a percentage of GDP is needed to reverse the effects of terrorism stemming from capital flight. Implications for public policy are discussed.
The Comparative African Economics of Governance in Fighting Terrorism
Forthcoming: African Security, 2018
This study assesses the comparative economics of governance in fighting terrorism in 53 African countries for period 1996-2012. Four terrorism variables are used, namely: domestic, transnational, unclear and total terrorism dynamics. Nine bundled and unbundled governance variables are employed, notably: political stability/no violence, voice & accountability, political governance, government effectiveness, regulation quality, economic governance, corruption-control, the rule of law and institutional governance. The empirical evidence is based on Fixed Effects regressions. In the analytical procedure, we first bundle governance indicators by means of principal component analysis before engaging the empirical exercise with the full sample. In the final step, specifications are based on a decomposed full sample in order to articulate the fundamental characteristics for comparative purposes. The following broad findings are established. First, good governance is an appealing tool in fighting terrorism. Second, the relevance of the good governance dynamics is as follows in order of increasing relevance: economic governance, institutional governance and political governance. The findings are presented in increasing order of magnitude to emphasise fundamental features in which governance dynamics have the highest effect in mitigating terrorism.
Deleted Journal, 2024
This study aims to measure the causes and determinants of terrorism in North Africa, and to analyze its economic effects, especially on economic growth, foreign direct investment (FDI), and refugees, in comparison to some Middle Eastern countries that Experiencing similar struggles. to achieve this aim, the research relies on an econometric methodology, which concludes that the two most important variables that affect the terrorism index for North African countries are the real GDP growth rate and the Gini index, as there is a strong inverse relationship between the real GDP growth rate and the terrorism index and a strong positive relationship between the Gini index and the terrorism index in these countries. The research concludes also that MENA's international share of terrorist attacks has reached 36.1% between 2002 and 2018, overall, the MENA's economic cost of terrorist attacks has had a steady upward trend since 2001, recording its highest value in 2016 with more than $62 billion.
Fighting terrorism in Africa when existing terrorism levels matter
Forthcoming: Behavioral Sciences of Terrorism and Political Aggression, 2019
This study examines policy tools in the fight against terrorism when existing levels of terrorism matter in 53 African countries for the period 1998-2012. The empirical evidence is based on contemporary, non-contemporary and Instrumental Variable Quantile regressions (QR) which enable the investigation throughout the conditional distributions of domestic, transnational and total terrorism dynamics. The following findings are established. First, counterterrorism policy instruments of inclusive human development and military expenditure further fuel terrorim. Second, political stability negatively affects terrorism with a negative threshold effect. Political stability estimates are consistently significant with increasing negative magnitudes throughout the conditional distributions of domestic and total terrorism. Policy implications are discussed.
Alhaji Kabiru , 2024
This study examines the relationship between military expenditure and foreign direct investment (FDI) amid terrorism. The study used Mean Group, Pooled Mean Group, Dynamic Fixed Effect, and Panel Quantile estimations techniques on 23 terrorized countries in Sub-Sharan Africa from 1999 to 2019. The outcome of the estimate discovered that military expenditure in the absence of terrorism negates FDI flow. But, amid terrorism, military expenditure has a significant positive impact on FDI inflow. Also, the results show that the effect varies at different quantiles. The results are robust using death from terrorism attacks to measure terrorism on a different model. The study suggests that countries should desist from high military spending in the absence of terrorism to facilitate FDI flow. Countries in mid-life terrorism should enhance military spending and augment military strategy with other options to boost investors' confidence in the economy's high influx of FDI.
New wine in old wineskins? Growth, terrorism and the resource curse in sub-Saharan Africa
European Journal of Political Economy, 2009
Since 1995, growth in sub-Saharan Africa has averaged more than 5% per year reversing a twodecade decline of real income per capita. In this paper, we explore the extent to which the nascent growth is sustainable or not due to higher incidences of terrorism and commodity price declines. Our analysis is based on a rich unbalanced panel data set with annual observations on 46 countries from 1968 to 2004. We explore these data with cross-sectional and panel growth regression analysis and quantile regressions. We estimate the economic and statistical effect of terrorism on growth in sub-Saharan Africa, controlling for a variety of other factors. We then investigate the extent to which there appears to be a structural break in the estimated relationships. We find that the terrorist-oriented fragility of sub-Sahara has increased in the most recent period. We find that most of the fragility can be explained by the growth in countries that are primary fuel exporters. Indeed, our evidence points to the fact that resourcerich countries have not done an adequate job of investing in counter-terrorist policies.