Developing a planning tool for South African prosecution resources: challenges and approach (original) (raw)

High-Level Simulation Model of a Criminal Justice System

Criminal justice systems are complex. They are composed of several major subsystems, including the police, courts, and corrections, which are in turn composed of many minor subsystems. Predicting the response of a criminal justice system to changes in subsystems is often difficult. Mathematical modeling can serve as a powerful tool for understanding and predicting the behavior of these systems under different scenarios. In this chapter, we provide the process flow of the criminal justice system of the British Columbia, Canada. We further develop a system dynamics model of the criminal justice system, and show how this model can assist strategic decision-makers and managers make better decisions.

Forecasting the future while investigating the past. The use of computational models in pre-trial detention decisions

Revista Brasileira de Direito Processual Penal

The paper focuses on the traditional purpose of pre-trial detention (and other precautionary measures) to prevent specific risks. While liberty is the rule, before conviction, pre-trial detention is an absolute exception, competing with the opposite principle of the presumption of innocence: providing valuable and accurate justification for balancing the interest to prevent risk with the presumption of innocence is an overarching difficulty for judges, in the whole western world. Which the solutions? The paper reflects and compares the traditional solution of legal presumptions with the newer trend of actuarial assessment tools, based on psycho-criminological theories, based on the Italian and the uS federal systems.

An Analytic Model for Capacity Planning of Prisons in the Netherlands

The Journal of the Operational Research Society, 2000

In this paper we describe a decision support system developed to help in assessing the need for various type of prison cells. In particular we predict the probability that a criminal has to be sent home because of a shortage of cells. The problem is modelled through a queueing network with blocking after service. The main objective of our study is to describe our analytical method and an approximate algorithm to solve this network. Through simulation studies we evaluate our method. Both the analytic and the simulation tool are elements of the decision support system.

Planning for building models of situations: What is involved?

In Proceedings of the 12th International Congress on Mathematical Education. Seoul, Korea., 2012

Planning the implementation of a mathematical modelling task is reported in this paper. The data used is from a research and development project aimed at enhancing year 8 and 9 teachers’ instructional practices in statistics. In an effort to support student task engagement with mathematical modelling of statistical situations, eight participating teachers were introduced to a computer applet tool useful for organising data. After completing a modelling activity as students, teachers were invited to suggest how they would introduce the task to their own students in order to ensure engagement with the activity. Differing opinions on the type and purpose of planning initially made this task difficult for the teachers to form a consensus. Reported is how the discourse in the group eventually shifted, leading teachers to acknowledge the need for detailed planning.

Modelling Legal Cases and Legal Rules in conjunction with JURIX 2010 December 15 , 2010 University of Liverpool Liverpool , United Kingdom

2010

This paper reports on a case study in which the use of the Rationale software was investigated to analyse the argumentation structure of a Dutch expert witness report in a criminal case. The underlying motivation of the case study was to explore the usefulness of argumentation visualisation software for increasing a judge’s understanding of expert reports and for assisting him or her in asking the proper critical questions to the expert. By way of an initial exploration of this usefulness, an expert report was analysed with the Rationale software. The visualisation was informally discussed with a legal expert, who was generally positive but also expressed some concerns and expected that the main usefulness of the tool is in training and education of judges.

Interactive Computer Technology for Planning and Policy Modeling

Water Resources Research, 1985

This paper speculates on the potential impacts of our increasing access to and use of computer technology and communication, especially with respect to planning and policy making. The focus of the discussion is on the interaction between the users of this expanding technology and the technology itself. Those involved in its development, whether it be the hardware or software of this technology, are in a position to make substantial contributions toward a more effective use of the models and their data bases by planners and policy analysts. Specific features of the technology and of environmental planning and policy-making processes are examined to identify where and how interactive computer-based models and associated hardware can best serve individuals, their organizations or institutions. Finally, the necessary conditions for the successful implementation of such tools and methods are identified.

Application of agent-based simulation to policy appraisal in the criminal justice system in England and Wales

… of Agent 2003: Challenges in Social …, 2003

This paper describes an agent-based approach for constructing a model of criminal justice system operations in England and Wales. The primary purpose of the model is to assess the impact of policy variants across the entire criminal justice system. Because of the structure of this system, three separate government departments interact and deliver services. Decisions in one area of the criminal justice system can be crucial in determining what happens in another area. Our purpose was twofold. First, we needed to contribute to the Treasury's spending review by working with different groups in criminal justice agencies to reach a consensus on how things actually occur (i.e., linking behavior and actions of one group with another and with resources). Second, we needed to produce a model of the entire criminal justice system that would provide insights into questions related to capacity, case flow, and costs. We also needed to model the ways in which individuals go through the system. The result is a hybrid model that combines a simple system dynamics approach with an agent-based model. The distinctive approach used in this work integrated modeling with practical ways of enabling people to engage in strategic policymaking, while taking into account the complexities of the criminal justice system. The agent-based framework developed to meet these needs models the criminal justice system, provides the ability to assess policy across the system, and allows sharing of model output to improve cooperative efforts among departments.