EDDAMAP: efficient data-dependent approach for monitoring asymptomatic patient (original) (raw)
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A framework for monitoring movements of pandemic disease patients based on GPS trajectory datasets
Wireless Networks, 2021
The rapid spread of contagious diseases poses a colossal threat to human existence. Presently, the emergence of coronavirus COVID-19 which has rightly been declared a global pandemic resulting in so many deaths, confusion as well as huge economic losses is a challenge. It has been suggested by the World Health Organization (WHO) in conjunction with different Government authorities of the world and non-governmental organizations, that efforts to curtail the COVID-19 pandemic should rely principally on measures such as social distancing, identification of infected persons, tracing of possible contacts as well as effective isolation of such person(s) for subsequent medical treatment. The aim of this study is to provide a framework for monitoring Movements of Pandemic Disease Patients and predicting their next geographical locations given the recent trend of infected COVID-19 patients absconding from isolation centres as evidenced in the Nigerian case. The methodology for this study, proposes a system architecture incorporating GPS (Global Positioning System) and Assisted-GPS technologies for monitoring the geographical movements of COVID-19 patients and recording of their movement Trajectory Datasets on the assumption that they are assigned with GPS-enabled devices such as smartphones. Accordingly, fifteen (15) participants (patients) were selected for this study based on the criteria of residency and business activity location. The ensuing participants movements generated 157, 218 Trajectory datasets during a period of 3 weeks. With this dataset, mining of the movement trace, Stay Points (hot spots), relationships, and the prediction of the next probable geographical location of a COVID-19 patient was realized by the application of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Data Mining techniques such as supervised Machine Learning (ML) algorithms (i.e., Multiple Linear Regression (MLR), k-Nearest Neighbor (kNN), Decision Tree Regression (DTR), Random Forest Regression (RFR), Gradient Boosting Regression (GBR), and eXtreme Gradient Boosting regression(XGBR) as well as density-based clustering methods (i.e., DBSCAN) for the computation of Stay Points (hot spots) of COVID-19 patient. The result of this study showed clearly that it is possible to determine the Stay Points (hot spots) of a COVID-19 patient. In addition, this study demonstrated the possibility of predicting the next probable geographical location of a COVID-19 patient. Correspondingly, Six Machine Learning models (i.e., MLR, kNN, DTR, RFR, GBR, and XGBR) were compared for efficiency, in determining the next probable location of a COVID-19 patient. The result showed that the DTR model performed better compared to other models (i.e., MLR, kNN, RFR, GBR, XGBR) based on four evaluation matrices (i.e., ACCURACY, MAE, MSE, and R 2) used. It is recommended that less developed Countries consider adopting this framework as a policy initiative for implementation at this burgeoning phase of COVID-19 infection and beyond. The same applies to the developed Countries. There is indication that GPS Trajectory dataset and Machine Learning algorithms as applied in this paper, appear to possess the potential of performing optimally in a real-life situation of monitoring a COVID-19 patient. This paper is unique given its ability to predict the next probable location of a COVID-19 patient. In the review of extant literature, prediction of the next probable location of a COVID-19 patient was not in evidence using the same Machine Learning algorithms.
Tracking COVID-19 by Tracking Infectious Trajectories
IEEE Access
Nowadays, the coronavirus pandemic has and is still causing large numbers of deaths and infected people. Although governments all over the world have taken severe measurements to slow down the virus spreading (e.g., travel restrictions, suspending all sportive, social, and economic activities, quarantines, social distancing, etc.), a lot of persons have died and a lot more are still in danger. Indeed, a recently conducted study [1] has reported that 79% of the confirmed infections in China were caused by undocumented patients who had no symptoms. In the same context, in numerous other countries, since coronavirus takes several days before the emergence of symptoms, it has also been reported that the known number of infections is not representative of the real number of infected people (the actual number is expected to be much higher). That is to say, asymptomatic patients are the main factor behind the large quick spreading of coronavirus and are also the major reason that caused governments to lose control over this critical situation. To contribute to remedying this global pandemic, in this paper, we propose an IoT a investigation system that was specifically designed to spot both undocumented patients and infectious places. The goal is to help the authorities to disinfect high-contamination sites and confine persons even if they have no apparent symptoms. The proposed system also allows determining all persons who had close contact with infected or suspected patients. Consequently, rapid isolation of suspicious cases and more efficient control over any pandemic propagation can be achieved.
Finding disease outbreak locations from human mobility data
EPJ Data Science, 2021
Finding the origin location of an infectious disease outbreak quickly is crucial in mitigating its further dissemination. Current methods to identify outbreak locations early on rely on interviewing affected individuals and correlating their movements, which is a manual, time-consuming, and error-prone process. Other methods such as contact tracing, genomic sequencing or theoretical models of epidemic spread offer help, but they are not applicable at the onset of an outbreak as they require highly processed information or established transmission chains. Digital data sources such as mobile phones offer new ways to find outbreak sources in an automated way. Here, we propose a novel method to determine outbreak origins from geolocated movement data of individuals affected by the outbreak. Our algorithm scans movement trajectories for shared locations and identifies the outbreak origin as the most dominant among them. We test the method using various empirical and synthetic datasets, a...
A Novel Pandemic Tracking Map: From Theory to Implementation
IEEE Access
The wide spread of the novel COVID-19 virus all over the world has caused major economical and social damages combined with the death of more than two million people so far around the globe. Therefore, the design of a model that can predict the persons that are most likely to be infected is a necessity to control the spread of this infectious disease as well as any other future novel pandemic. In this paper, an Internet of Things (IoT) sensing network is designed to anonymously track the movement of individuals in crowded zones through collecting the beacons of WiFi and Bluetooth devices from mobile phones to triangulate and estimate the locations of individuals inside buildings without violating their privacy. A mathematical model is presented to compute the expected time of exposure between users. Furthermore, a virus spread mathematical model as well as iterative spread tracking algorithms are proposed to predict the probability of individuals being infected even with limited data.
PLoS ONE, 2013
Empiric quantification of human mobility patterns is paramount for better urban planning, understanding social network structure and responding to infectious disease threats, especially in light of rapid growth in urbanization and globalization. This need is of particular relevance for developing countries, since they host the majority of the global urban population and are disproportionally affected by the burden of disease. We used Global Positioning System (GPS) data-loggers to track the fine-scale (within city) mobility patterns of 582 residents from two neighborhoods from the city of Iquitos, Peru. We used ,2.3 million GPS data-points to quantify age-specific mobility parameters and dynamic co-location networks among all tracked individuals. Geographic space significantly affected human mobility, giving rise to highly local mobility kernels. Most (,80%) movements occurred within 1 km of an individual's home. Potential hourly contacts among individuals were highly irregular and temporally unstructured. Only up to 38% of the tracked participants showed a regular and predictable mobility routine, a sharp contrast to the situation in the developed world. As a case study, we quantified the impact of spatially and temporally unstructured routines on the dynamics of transmission of an influenza-like pathogen within an Iquitos neighborhood. Temporally unstructured daily routines (e.g., not dominated by a single location, such as a workplace, where an individual repeatedly spent significant amount of time) increased an epidemic's final size and effective reproduction number by 20% in comparison to scenarios modeling temporally structured contacts. Our findings provide a mechanistic description of the basic rules that shape human mobility within a resource-poor urban center, and contribute to the understanding of the role of fine-scale patterns of individual movement and co-location in infectious disease dynamics. More generally, this study emphasizes the need for careful consideration of human social interactions when designing infectious disease mitigation strategies, particularly within resource-poor urban environments. Citation: Vazquez-Prokopec GM, Bisanzio D, Stoddard ST, Paz-Soldan V, Morrison AC, et al. (2013) Using GPS Technology to Quantify Human Mobility, Dynamic Contacts and Infectious Disease Dynamics in a Resource-Poor Urban Environment. PLoS ONE 8(4): e58802.
Improving epidemic risk maps using mobility information from mobile network data
Proceedings of the 30th International Conference on Advances in Geographic Information Systems
In this paper we propose a method for using mobile network data to detect potential COVID-19 hospitalizations and derive corresponding epidemic risk maps. We apply our methods to a dataset from more than 2 million cellphones, collected by a mobile network provider located in London, UK. The approach yields a 98.6% agreement with released public records of patients admitted to NHS hospitals. Analyzing the mobility pattern of these individuals prior to their potential hospitalization, we present a series of risk maps. Compared with census-based maps, our risk maps indicate that the areas of highest risk are not necessarily the most densely populated ones and may change from day to day. Finally, we observe that hospitalized individuals tended to have a higher average mobility than non-hospitalized ones. CCS CONCEPTS • Networks → Mobile networks; • Computing methodologies → Model development and analysis; • General and reference → Cross-computing tools and techniques; Measurement; Evaluation; Estimation; Validation.
Science, 2014
Understanding human movement and mobility is important for characterizing, forecasting, and controlling the spatial and temporal spread of infectious diseases. Unfortunately, the current West African Ebola outbreak is taking place in a region where mobility has changed considerably in recent years. Efforts must be made to better understand these mobility patterns. For example, mobile phone call records provide insight into how people move *
An Enhanced Autonomous Socio-Contact Tracing System of the Spread of Contiguous Diseases
Omar aboulola, 2021
COVID-19 and other neighbouring diseases spread widely, resulting in a global epidemic that was impossible to manage and control. While numerous measures have been put in place to detect an infected person and protect uninfected areas from contracting these contagious diseases, the spread of diseases like COVID-19 continues to be rapid. As of the time of writing this paper, the number of affected people has continued to rise, and there is no clear indication of the number of people who are infected but have gone undiscovered and are spreading the infections. That is why, in order to combat the threat of contiguous disease spread, this research presented an upgraded autonomous socio-contact tracing system on a mobile platform. As a result, a generic system development process was used to create a system that allows an infected person who has been tested positive to track their electromagnetic ID card in order to determine their exact location and the risk of spreading contagious diseases. by an autonomous smart assistant that assists in describing symptoms. As a result, the system is equipped with notifications alerts for the stages of social group identification, processing, and control in order to avoid the spread of contagious diseases. The development of this system is critical for controlling epidemic diseases that are spreading over the world (particularly COVID-19) and posing a threat to people's lives. Furthermore, it contributes to a greater understanding of the seriousness of epidemic diseases and how to avoid them.
Real-time pandemic surveillance using hospital admissions and mobility data
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2022
Forecasting the burden of COVID-19 has been impeded by limitations in data, with case reporting biased by testing practices, death counts lagging far behind infections, and hospital census reflecting time-varying patient access, admission criteria, and demographics. Here, we show that hospital admissions coupled with mobility data can reliably predict severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission rates and healthcare demand. Using a forecasting model that has guided mitigation policies in Austin, TX, we estimate that the local reproduction number had an initial 7-d average of 5.8 (95% credible interval [CrI]: 3.6 to 7.9) and reached a low of 0.65 (95% CrI: 0.52 to 0.77) after the summer 2020 surge. Estimated case detection rates ranged from 17.2% (95% CrI: 11.8 to 22.1%) at the outset to a high of 70% (95% CrI: 64 to 80%) in January 2021, and infection prevalence remained above 0.1% between April 2020 and March 1, 2021, peaking at 0.8% (0.7-0.9%) in early...
Uncovering the Spread of an Infectious Disease with Mobile Phone Data
2016
We use mobile phone records for the analysis of mobility patterns and the detection of possible risk zones of Chagas disease in two Latin American countries. We show that geolocalized call records are rich in social and individual information, which can be used to infer whether an individual has lived in an endemic area. We present two case studies, in Argentina and in Mexico, using data provided by mobile phone companies from each country. The risk maps that we generate can be used by health campaign managers to target specific areas and allocate resources more effectively. Finally, we show the value of mobile phone records to predict long-term migrations, which play a crucial role in the spread of Chagas disease.