Modelling the Effectiveness of PPP Road Infrastructure Projects by Applying Random Forests (original) (raw)
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Evaluation of Road Investment Project Effectiveness
The Engineering Economics, 2010
Roads in Lithuania are financed only from collected road taxes; however, this funding is not sufficient for road maintenance and improvement. Lithuanian Road Administration under the Ministry of Transport and Communications allocates the funding received from European Regional Development Fund as follows: improvement of pavement of regional roads, implementation of traffic safety and environmental measures, and implementation of Gravel Roads Paving Programme. Since 2004 road projects in Lithuania have been financed from European Union funds. Unfortunately these financial resources are not sufficient for the implementation of all road investment projects in Lithuania. The problem of selecting the most effective road investment projects is becoming more and more acute. Road investment project alternatives have to be appraised in an integrated manner using mathematical models in addition to economic, social and environmental criteria. Scientific problem-road investment projects are often appraised from economic, social and environmental viewpoints separately by applying different mathematical models and without using the principle of sustainable development and multi-criteria appraisal methods for integrated analysis of road investments. The authors propose to select criteria from sustainable environment components, which best reflect economic, social and environmental aspects. It should be noted that these economic, social and environmental aspects are interrelated and complementary, and therefore influence the appraisal of road investment projects. The article analyses and evaluates the effectiveness of road investment project alternatives by combining economic, social and environmental aspects and processing the data using expert and multi-criteria appraisal methods. Scientific novelty-an integrated evaluation of economic, social and environmental aspects by using multi-criteria appraisal methods is proposed. The aim of the research-to present the road investment project appraisal methodology based on the principle of sustainable development and perform the appraisal of the alternative projects by making computations according to expert and TOPSIS (Technique for the Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution) appraisal methods. The object of the research-road investment projects. The methods of the research-expert and multicriteria appraisal method TOPSIS is applied.
Transportation Research Procedia, 2016
This research aims to identify how to measure the level of success of a Public Private Partnership (PPP) projects using case studies along Europe. The analysis is based on a Performance Measurement System (PMS) using a step-by-step approach. Altogether 13 PPP road projects in the EU have been chosen to test the PMS. Two measurement approaches have been used to analyse the performance of these case studies. Herein, altogether 29 performance measures (PMs) and 9 key performance indicators (KPIs) that have been developed systematically have been considered. The first approach used has evaluated the number of successful and failure performance measures in order to show different level of success in projects. In this approach, the weighting used for the performance measures are considered equal. The second approach has been then used to weight the PMs using a Delphi analysis first, and then to evaluate overall performance. The comparison of the results reveal that there are dominant PMs and KPIs that determine the success of a project. The results illustrate how PPP projects may be evaluated to extract conclusions about the success/failure of a project from a global view, showing the areas and elements that need to be considered along this process.
FACTORS AFFECTING THE SUCCESS/ FAILURE OF ROAD INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS UNDER PPP IN INDIA
India has accorded a high priority to road infrastructure development through Public-Private Partnership (PPP) and it has set a high target for investment inflows. Yet, it is widely held that road/highway infrastructure has not been developing at required pace and that the road infrastructure projects under PPP have been suffering from several hurdles and delays, thereby affecting project success/ failure. This paper is an attempt to analyze the critical success/failure factors of road infrastructure projects under PPP in India. A questionnaire survey was conducted among a sample of the stakeholders of road infrastructure projects to identify the critical success/ failure factors during all four major project stages using different approaches. Initially, the critical factors were identified through ranking based on the average/mean score. Later, the conventional RII score was used to identify the critical success/failure factors. Finally, the critical success/failure factors were also identified based on the stakeholder-wise ranking of the factors and their convergence. The assessment revealed that there was a greater convergence across the different methods and also that there was greater consensus among project stakeholder on the critical success/ failure factors of road PPP projects..
Economic appraisal of road projects in countries with developing and transition economies
Road investments in developing and transition economies constitute a large proportion of public investment programmes. It is therefore important that decisions about investments in roads are made on the basis of objective indicators estimated for the proposed road projects. Economic appraisal models provide an objective framework for the assessment of the benefits derived from investments in road infrastructure. These models incorporate an economic appraisal framework based on the concept of life-cycle cost analysis, in which the annual costs of construction and maintenance of one or more road investment alternatives are compared against a base case (without project) alternative in order to estimate the corresponding reduction in vehicle operation costs. Other benefits or costs can be included within the economic appraisal framework if they can be externally quantified. The results from the economic appraisal of road projects in developing and transition economies often show that benefits to be derived from investments in maintenance and rehabilitation of existing roads far exceed those from construction of new roads. The models also show that where there is significant traffic congestion, investments in capacity expansion can produce high economic returns provided the value assigned to travel time is realistic.
Project Definition Rating Index (PDRI) Analysis of Road Infrastructure in India
Mathematical Statistician and Engineering Applications, 2021
India has set a path towards colossal infrastructure development in recent years which increases the functionality of the country. Though there are many challenges on this path, infrastructure projects are affected by cost and time overruns. This situation arises due to a lack of funding and poor project management. Project Definition Rating Index (PDRI) of infrastructure is used in preplanning of road project points out areas of development in a structured process. PDRI along with Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) helps to identify \u0026 mitigate the issues simultaneously. Present study aims to develop stimulating the growth of road projects by using Sustainable Development Goals and finding alternative materials to reduce CO2 emissions. Total 9 projects were analyzed considering all categories of roads in the Indian context is done and sustainable goals are incorporated to mitigate risk. Embodied Energy of materials is considered to select sustainable material. Thus, it can be concluded that PDRI and SDGs can work simultaneously to achieve better pre-planning and sustainability.
Nigerian Journal of Technology, 2018
As Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs) are being practiced in most parts of the world, the need to adopt a system mechanism to evaluate the performance is imperative. The paper evaluates sustainable key performance indicators (KPIs) with a view to appreciating times of improved performance or otherwise. Eleven performance indicators for PPP in Nigeria were identified and ranked on a scale of 1 to 5 as follows: It indicates that increased road network size with mean score of 4.65 is the highest rated key performance indicator in a PPP project. Other important factors include Increased asset value, Increased road usage, Reduced road accident, Reduced travel time, Reduced user cost, Reduced maintenance cost, Reduced public sector administration costs, with mean scores of 4.14, 3.99, 3.75, 3.65, 3.59, 3.53, 3.39 respectively. The research alternative hypothesis is "Increased road network size is the most accepted performance indicator for evaluating progress of PPP financed projects". Chi-Square was adapted to test the hypothesis and it rejected the null hypothesis and accepted the alternative hypothesis. It follows that increased road network size is the most rated performance indicator in evaluating PPP projects. Good service outcome is the target of any PPP project and its achievement attaches value for money (VFM) and general confident to the project.
Why PPP Modeled Infrastructure Projects Failed:A Critical Review with a Special Focus on Road Sector
—Infrastructure is the back bone of economic development of any Nation. Road infrastructure plays key role for trade and commerce, connecting the production and consumption centers. Road and transportation infrastructure construction is highly capital intensive, wherein the government alone cannot meet its ends and initiated Public Private Partnership (PPP) for its execution right from planning and designing to its maintenance through various PPP models. Over the last few years many of the awarded roadprojects through PPP modelare stalled citing various reasons. This technical paper analyses the risk factors associated with PPP –toll operated road projects through case studies and suggested corrective measures like shadow tolling and hybrid models for restoration of PPP. Keywords— PPP in Highway Projects, Risk factors, Shadow Tolling, Hybrid Models.
Sustainable Infrastructure Assessment Model: An Application to Road Projects
KSCE Journal of Civil Engineering, 2019
Sustainable infrastructure assessment models play an important role in sustainable development. However, the current infrastructure assessment models for road projects have several limitations; specifically, all the models do not support the involvement of various stakeholders. Most models do not consider the risk arising from uncertainty in the assessment, and are not flexible regarding changes needed for local project contexts. Accordingly, this study aims to develop a sustainable infrastructure assessment model that overcomes these limitations, which is the distinct contribution of this study. A utility function is used to address the risk, and the stakeholders' involvement is taken into account by a social welfare function. To provide flexibility for changes, the model is programmed using Visual Basic for Application for interactive activities with stakeholders (as assessors) and Microsoft Excel for calculation activities. The model includes four phases: 1) assessor weight selection, 2) assessment criteria and weight selection, 3) sustainable infrastructure assessment, and 4) sustainability assessment report. The model was verified and validated with four actual road projects, and acceptable results were obtained. Thus, the proposed model, which reflects reality more accurately than other available sustainable infrastructure assessment models, can assist stakeholders by reducing the time and effort required for assessing the sustainability of road projects.
Public Private Partnerships Vs. Traditional Roads: Project Delivery Time, Costs and Quality
The Public Private Partnerships (PPPs) have become a mainstay of plans of the Centre and the State governments towards infrastructure development. We empirically examine a widely held belief that PPPs are better than the traditional approach towards infrastructure in that they can deliver superior quality infrastructure at a faster rate and lower costs. Using a dataset of more than three hundred national highways projects, we compare the performance of the PPP and the traditional government (non-PPP) highway projects. We show that the project delays are relatively short for PPPs, but the cost overruns are significantly higher for PPPs than for the government managed highway projects. The data and other available evidence suggest that the quality of PPP roads is better than the traditional highways. However, the overall quality of road services under PPPs is deficient on several counts.
An Economic Analysis of Improvement of Road Infrastructure Project A Case Study
A well-developed transportation network is vital to the economic development of the country. High quality road network increases the potential of any economic system by helping both consumer and producer. Traffic congestions are major bottleneck of smooth functioning of a city transportation network. With increase in vehicle population commuters spends more time in traffic jam and loses precious time which could have been utilised in productive activities otherwise. It also causes wasteful fuel expenditure which directly affects the country's exchequer. Thus creation of new road infrastructures as well as periodic maintenance of the existing one has long term economic benefits. The economic benefits are calibrated by carrying out cost-benefit analysis of the expenditures incurred and benefits created vide Economic Internal Rate of Return (EIRR). The bustling city of Chandigarh is always frequented with heavy traffic jam due to ever increasing vehicle population. In order to sort out the traffic problems in the city, the engineering department of Union Territory of Chandigarh is building-up one flyover, one bridge and three underpasses at various locations of the city. Here an attempt has been made to carry out an economic analysis of the above-mentioned projects. A factor of 0.85 has been adopted to convert financial costs into economic costs. The EIRR for flyover is estimated to be 15.57%, bridge to be 21.05%, underpass between sector 9 &17 to be 15.05%, underpass between sector 34 & 35 to be 14.14% and underpass between sector 22 & 35 to be 14.16%. The sensitivity analysis also proved the economic viability all the projects. Overall the proposed investment programmes are economically viable.