What Drove Syria Back into the Arab Fold (original) (raw)
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Bashar al-Assad and the Greater Arab World
Yet as the Syrian crisis enters a new phase and moves closer to the “post-conflict” period, the question of Assad’s legitimacy and the extent to which Damascus has become subservient to Tehran will continue to complicate the prospects for Syria returning to the Arab League. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/syriasource/bashar-al-assad-and-the-greater-arab-world
The Implications of the Syrian War for New Regional Orders in the Middle East
Rome, IAI, September 2018, 17 p. (MENARA Working Papers ; 12), 2018
This paper argues that the impact of the eight-year war in Syria will reverberate across the region for years to come, and explores, in particular, four noteworthy legacies. First, it examines the series of interventions in Syria by regional and foreign powers (including Russia, Turkey, Iran, the United States, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates) that reconfigured the role of such powers across the region. Second, it reveals the emergence of two opposing alliances in the region, each comprising Arab states, regional Arab and non-Arab powers, global powers and local non-state actors. These or similar alliances may well reappear in other Middle Eastern conflicts. Third, it analyses the striking number and variety of foreign forces that either directly fought in Syria or indirectly supported warring factions. Since 2012, these forces have included at least twenty states and major non-state players, alongside hundreds of smaller tribal, Islamist and secular rebel and pro-Assad groups. Finally, the paper suggests that the international community’s weak response to the untold war crimes on both sides, and its apparent de facto acceptance of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s incumbency, portend continuing regional authoritarian and violent political systems for the foreseeable future.
The Syrian uprising passed its one year mark with the Ba’th regime still in power. Since the beginning of the uprising, however, peaceful protests have declined and have been replaced by armed struggle. What were the factors that determined the course of events since the start of the uprising and how did these factors push Syria towards a civil war? In this paper, I argue that the uprising that began as a result of legitimate grievances of Syrian workers, peasants, activists and intellectuals was appropriated by more organized opposition forces that had the support of powerful Gulf States such as Qatar and Saudi Arabia. This turn of events marginalized the domestic opposition who were rendered invisible in Western media, which instead promoted the Muslim Brotherhood backed opposition as the only voice of Syrian opposition. This essay offers an analysis of the Syrian uprising by situating the uprising historically and by moving away from the narrative that has been established by the Western media. Part one situates the uprising in the context of economic liberalization policies of Bashar Assad. Part two explores the role of Syrian opposition forces prior and after the Arab Spring. Part three discusses the role of Western and regional powers and their intentions to shape the outcome of the uprising. I conclude by discussing the broader implications of international powers’ responses to the Syrian crisis.
The Administration’s strategy for defeating ISIS has failed so far because a secondary objective – a priori insistence that “Assad must go” – has hampered the quest for a political solution, with disastrous results. The staying power of Bashar is far greater than has been claimed by successive U.S. policymakers. The secret of its resilience is in the fact that no “moderate opposition” exists and that millions of Syrians are horrified by the alternative.