Dynamics of Product Complexity in Africa:Structural Estimation Using Structuralists Model (original) (raw)

Diversification and Sophistication as drivers of structural transformation for Africa: The Economic Complexity Index of African Countries

Journal of African Development

African countries have achieved impressive growth performance during the recent years despite the multiple crises the western world is experiencing. However, this growth has not been inclusive for several reasons. It has been driven mainly by the extractive industry at the detriment of the industrial and manufacturing sectors. These sectors contribution has even stagnated during the last fifteen years to least than 10% of the continent's GDP. Because much of the efforts were put in the extractive industry, and the industrial sector including the manufacturing were neglected for long time, it has resulted that most African countries productive structure have remained weakly sophisticated and diversified. The productive structures have not benefited from the recent growth observed across the continent. Since Adam smith (1776), it is recognized that the level of wealth of a nation depends mainly on the lever of knowledge that the society holds. This is translated in the nation'...

Economic complexity to boost the selected sub-Saharan African economies

Journal of Economic and Financial Sciences, 2021

Orientation: Economic complexity is a measure of productive capabilities indirectly by looking at the mix of sophisticated products that countries export. The economic complexity index proposed a proxy for diversity and ubiquity of products in the export basket. Research purpose: This study seeks to determine if economic complexity can influence the inequality measured by the Gini index in some selected sub-Saharan African countries. Motivation for the study: The need for the study emanates from the notion that that economic complexity can reduce income inequality hence it is imperative to investigate this relationship in the sub-Saharan African region where most countries produce few sophisticated goods that are also labour-intensive. Inadequate literature within the African continent has also contributed to the formulation of this study. Research approach/design and method: This study employed the autoregressive distribution lag (ARDL) model to analyze a panel data set, which incl...

The structuralist revenge: economic complexity as an important dimension to evaluate growth and development

Brazilian Journal of Political Economy, 2018

This paper brings elements from the economic complexity literature to the discussions of the structuralist tradition on the central role of manufacturing and productive sophistication to economic growth. Using data provided by the Atlas of Economic Complexity this study sought to verify if countries’ complexity is important to explain convergence and divergence among poor and rich countries and, if so, which are the countries that will be able to reduce the income gap compared to developed countries. The econometric analysis revealed that exports and production complexity is significant to explain convergence and divergence among countries.

Dynamics of technology gap between OECD and African countries: A structural estimation

Scientific African, 2021

Abstract Like other technology gap models, the application of “the Latin American Structuralism” model in OECD & African countries reveals that the technology spillovers due to the technology gap is not as easy task as it was presumed by the mainstream growth theories. Using the per capita GDP gap between the OECD and sample African countries as a proxy for the technology gap, this paper indicates that the technology gap growth rate has been further soaring instead of revealing the normal falling tendency. The finding implies the absence of “automatic catch-up tendency” between the homogenous technology producing countries (OECD) and the heterogeneous technology extracting countries (Africa) and the “weak effort” African countries exerted so far to benefit from the technology gap in the form of spillovers from technology imitation. Among African relative sectoral growth contributions, the relative growth contributions of the agriculture and service sectors negatively affect the technology gap growth rate. However, they cause the equilibrium technology gap to further soar. It suggests the need for structural transformation in Africa. The two-steps difference GMM model is used on a panel of 34 African countries for ten years (2005-2014).

The Economic Complexity Index (ECI) and Output Volatility: High vs Low Income Countries

In this study we explore whether more complex economies are better shielded against exogenous shocks. We contribute to the empirical literature on determinants of output volatility by introducing a relatively new index on productive capabilities of export goods, the Economic Complexity Index (ECI), developed by Hausmann et al. (2014). The ECI measures the productive capabilities of countries by explaining the knowledge accumulated in a population based on the goods they produce and export and to which countries they export. As such, not only does this measure capture diversification but also the technology embedded in the products. Using panel data analysis for a cross section of countries from 1984 to 2016, we find variations in the effects of ECI on output volatility between high and low income countries. For high income countries, increases in ECI reduce output volatility in the short to medium term (under 3 years), whereas we observe a longer delay in output volatility moderation for low income countries. The findings suggest that low income countries have less diversified and less complex export goods which leave them open to external shocks and reduce their ability to adjust quickly to the shocks. Furthermore, disaggregation by regions reveals that economic complexity in Asia is relatively more effective at reducing output volatility than in Africa. The difference between the two regions could be due to Africa's primary production and exports being in relatively homogenous goods with no differentiation and subject to the volatility of world markets.

Product complexity and economic development

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 2012

We rank 5,107 products and 124 countries according to the measures of complexity. We find that: (1) the most complex products are in machinery, chemicals, and metals, while the least complex products are raw materials and commodities, wood, textiles, and agricultural products; (2) the most complex economies in the world are Japan, Germany, and Sweden, and the least complex, Cambodia, Papua New Guinea, and Nigeria; (3) the major exporters of the more complex products are the high-income countries, while the major exporters of the less complex products are the low-income countries; and (4) export shares of the more complex products increase with income, while export shares of the less complex products decrease with income. Finally, we relate the measure of product complexity with the concept of Complex Products and Systems, and find a high degree of conformity between them.

The knowledge-based products and economic complexity in developing countries

Heliyon

Economic growth and development requires greater access to global markets, while developing countries face many challenges in terms of trade liberalization. That is why most of the countries relying on natural income sources have not been able to improve their indicators of economic complexity and high technology utilization. The purpose of this study was to investigate the impact of trade liberalization on the economic complexity as a strategy adopted by the Middle East developing economies during the period 2002-2017; using the panel vector auto regression model (PVAR). Immediate reaction test results show that, over a period of 10 years, economic complexity increases with positive shock from variables of trade freedom, foreign direct investment and gross fixed capital formation, but in the long run, the effect of imports of intermediate and capital goods is initially increasing and, after a short period, has a positive downward effect. In general, the results of this study recommend that; in order to achieve a proper share of export revenues in economic growth, the Middle East countries need to strengthen the foreign trade economy through trade liberalization and experience the impact of imports of medium and final capital goods, gross capital formation, and foreign direct investment in the index of economic complexity.

Economic Complexity and Sustainable Growth in Developing Countries

Economics Development Analysis Journal, 2022

Most developing countries in this study are middle to low-income countries that have a relatively low economic complexity. This study aims to analyze the effect of the economic complexity on economic growth in 86 developing countries in 2010-2019. The method used is the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) to capture dynamic panel analysis. The estimation results using the System GMM show that economic complexity has a positive effect on economic growth in developing countries. Increasing economic complexity encourages a structural transformation through high value-added economic sectors' creation to produce more complex products for earning a higher income. Human capital does not have a significant effect on economic growth because developing countries have relatively low-quality workers both in terms of education and health. The human capital development and government spending on the health sector are necessary to accelerate sustainable economic growth.

Economic complexity and structural transformation: the case of Mozambique

WIDER Working Paper, 2020

Mozambique is among the world’s least complex economies. By systematically accounting for both supply- and demand-side factors, we identify new products and sectors that can help to diversify and upgrade its economy. In a supply-side analysis, we use network methods from the literature on economic complexity to identify a set of target products that are complex, require productive capabilities useful in the export of other products, and are close to Mozambique’s existing productive structure. In a demand-side analysis, we use gravity models to predict the export potential of target products and markets given product-specific trade resistance and geographically dispersed demand. The broad sectoral focus of Mozambique’s industrial policy is largely consistent with structural transformation and export promotion. The current prioritization of agriculture, agro-industry, and metals is especially important, while there are unexploited opportunities in machinery, vehicles, and transport eq...

Revisiting The Trade Complexity And Economic Growth Nexus: Does Trade Composition Matter?

2009

Countries at all stages of economic development desire economic growth. Hausmann et al. (2007) devises a theoretical model and empirical analysis purporting that the type of goods which a country produces, categorized by the wealth level of all countries producing such goods, serves as one determinant of economic growth. Given the importance of this finding, particularly for developing countries, and the broad range of technical capabilities which countries possess, this study seeks to determine if this relationship holds within productive categories, classified by the technological requirements of their production, or simply represents a movement from primary and resource-based products to higher level manufactures. In particular, this study analyzes the sophistication of exports in five categories; primary products, resource based products, as well as low, medium, and high-tech manufactures, correlating each countries level of sophistication in these categories with economic growth using both five and ten year panels over the period 1962-2000. The empirical analysis confirms the importance of sophistication in the low-tech sector, which includes textiles and basic metal manufacturing, as an indicator of economic growth in all countries, while suggesting that sophistication within the high-tech sector, comprised of pharmaceuticals, electronics, and aircraft equipment, plays a significant role in highly developed countries. iii BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCH Brock Williams grew up on a grain farm in east-central Illinois. He attended the University of Illinois for his undergraduate studies majoring in economics with minors in international studies and classical civilizations. He received a B.S. degree with highest honors from the University of Illinois in 2007.