Identifying hotspots for plant invasions and forecasting focal points of further spread (original) (raw)
2009, Journal of Applied Ecology
Summary 1. To ensure the successful detection, control and eradication of invasive plant species, we need information that can identify areas prone to invasions and criteria that can point out which particular populations may become foci of further spread. Specifically, our work aimed to develop statistical models that identify hotspots of invasive plant species and evaluate the conditions that give rise to successful populations of invasive species. 2. We combined extensive data sets on invasive species richness and on species per cent ground cover, together with climate, local habitat and land cover data. We then estimated invasive species richness as a function of those environmental variables by developing a spatially explicit generalized linear model within a hierarchical Bayesian framework. In a second analysis, we used an ordinal logistic regression model to quantify invasive species abundance as a function of the same set of predictor variables. 3. Our results show which loc...
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Diversity and Distributions, 2010
Aim There has been considerable recent interest in modelling the potential distributions of invasive species. However, research has developed in two opposite directions: the first, focusing on screening, utilizes phenomenological models; the second, focusing on predictions of invasion dynamics, utilizes mechanistic models. Here, we present hybrid modelling as an approach to bridge the gap and to integrate the advantages of both research directions.Location Global.Methods First, we briefly summarize the characteristics and limitations of both approaches (screening vs. understanding). Then, we review the recent developments of hybrid models, discuss their current problems and offer suggestions to improve them.Results Generally, hybrid models are able to combine the advantages of currently used phenomenological and mechanistic approaches. Main challenges in building hybrid models are the choices of the appropriate degree of detail and efficiency and the decision on how to connect the different sub-models. Given these challenges, we discuss the links between the phenomenological and the mechanistic model parameters, the underlying concepts of fundamental and realized niches and the problem of feedback loops between population dynamics and environmental factors.Main conclusions Once the above challenges have been addressed and the necessary framework has been developed, hybrid models will provide outstanding tools for overcoming past limitations and will provide the means to make reliable and robust predictions of the potential distribution of invasive species, their population dynamics and the potential outcomes of the overall invasion process.
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