Temporal Trend and Spatial Analysis of the HIV Epidemic in Young Men who have Sex with Men in the Second Largest Brazilian Amazonian Province (original) (raw)

2021, Research Square (Research Square)

Background: In the last decade, young men who have sex with men (MSM) have been highly affectedimpacted by the HIV. Much more than attributing the risk behavior to HIV uniquely to the individual, behaviors are shaped by social determinants of health (SDHs). Despite of the problem, there is a scarcity of studies evaluating the SHDs impact on HIV among young MSN. Therefore,. Iin this study,paper we analyzed the HIV epidemic among Amazonian young MSM byin employing temporal trendstrend and spatial analysis. The Brazilian Amazon region has the highest HIV/AIDS detection rate among all the other Brazilian regions. Methods: We conducted an ecologicalEcological study using reported cases of HIV/AIDS in young MSM living in Pará, the second largestlarger Brazilian Amazonian province, between 2007 and 2018. Data were obtained from the Information System for Noti able Diseases. ForTo the temporal analysis, we employed autoregressive integrated moving average models, and seasonality and trend decomposition using locally weighted polynomial regression. To the spatial analysis, Moran's spatial autocorrelation, spatial scan, and spatial regression techniques were used for spatial analysis.. Results: A total of 2,192 noti cations were included in the study. Greater variabilityvariabilities in HIV/AIDS incidence rates waswere found in the festive months. The HIV/AIDS incidence rates exhibitedpresented an upward trend from 2013. This, and this trend is forecasted to continue until 2022. Belém, the capital of Pará, presented the highest spatial risk for HIV/AIDS and was the only city to present spatiotemporal risk from, 2014 to 2018. The geographic variation of the epidemic was associated with the number of men with formal jobs, the average salary of men, and the percentage of people over 18 years old with elementary education. Conclusion: The upward trend of HIV/AIDS incidence forecasted until 2022 and the variability of the epidemic promoted by the social determinants of health signalsbrings an alert and subsidies to health authorities. Policies Subsidies to reinforce the policies to controlagainst HIV among young MSM are urgently required.