Flood and Wind Risk Perception: A Comparative Analysis of Evacuation Behavior During Hurricane Ivan (original) (raw)
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Who Evacuates When Hurricanes Approach? The Role of Risk, Information, and Location*
Social Science Quarterly, 2010
Objective. This article offers an expanded perspective on evacuation decision making during severe weather. In particular, this work focuses on uncovering determinants of individual evacuation decisions. Methods. We draw on a survey conducted in 2005 of residents in the eight-county Houston metropolitan area after Hurricane Rita made landfall on September 24, 2005. Results. We find that evacuation decisions are influenced by a heterogeneous set of parameters, including perceived risk from wind, influence of media and neighbors, and awareness of evacuation zone, that are often at variance with one of the primary measures of risk used by public officials to order or recommend an evacuation (i.e., storm surge). We further find that perceived risk and its influence on evacuation behavior is a local phenomenon more readily communicated by and among individuals who share the same geography, as is the case with residents living inside and outside official risk areas. Conclusions. Who evacuates and why is partially dependent on where one lives because perceptions of risk are not uniformly shared across the area threatened by an approaching hurricane and the same sources and content of information do not have the same effect on evacuation behavior. Hence, efforts to persuade residential populations about risk and when, where, and how to evacuate or shelter in place should originate in the neighborhood rather than emanating from blanket statements from the media or public officials. Our findings also raise important policy questions (included in the discussion section) that require further study and consideration by those responsible with organizing and implementing evacuation plans.
Behavioral Model to Understand Household-Level Hurricane Evacuation Decision Making
Journal of Transportation Engineering, 2011
Hurricanes are one of the most costly natural disasters in the United States and have increased in frequency in the last few years. The critical role of evacuation, particularly for the vulnerable communities, has been realized from some disastrous evacuation experiences in recent hurricanes (for example, Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005). Therefore, a thorough understanding of the determinants of evacuation behavior is needed to protect the loss of lives, especially in the vulnerable communities. However, a household's decision-making process under a hurricane risk is a very complex process influenced by many factors. This paper presents a model of household hurricane evacuation behavior accounting for households' heterogeneous behavior in decision making by using original data from Hurricane Ivan. It develops a mixed logit (also known as random-parameters logit) model of hurricane evacuation decision, where random parameters reflect the heterogeneous responses of households caused by a hurricane. We report several factors consistent with some of the previous findings, which are important for understanding household-level evacuation decision making. We also explain the varied influences of some of the determining variables on the hurricane evacuation decision.
2000
The purpose of this paper is to assess the determinants of hurricane evacuation behavior of North Carolina coastal households during Hurricane Bonnie and a future hypothetical hurricane. We use data from a telephone survey of North Carolina coastal residents. Hypothetical questions are used to assess whether respondents will evacuate and where in the case of a future hurricane with varying intensities. We examine the social, economic, and risk factors that affect the decisions to evacuate and whether to go to a shelter or motel/hotel relative to other destinations. When making the evacuation decision households are more likely to go someplace safer during a hurricane when given evacuation orders. Objective and subjective risk factors also play an important role when making evacuation decisions. Social and economic factors are the primary determinants of the destination decision.
Household Evacuation Decision Making in Response to Hurricane Ike
Natural Hazards Review, 2012
This study focused on household evacuation decisions and departure timing for Hurricane Ike. The data were consistent with an abbreviated form of the Protective-Action Decision Model in which female gender, official warning messages, hurricane experience, coastal location, and environmental and social cues were hypothesized to produce perceived storm characteristics, which in turn, would produce expected personal impacts. Finally, the latter, together with perceived evacuation impediments, would determine evacuation decisions and departure timing. However, there were fewer significant predictors of perceived storm characteristics and more significant predictors of expected personal impacts and evacuation decisions than hypothesized. Also contrary to hypothesis, female gender, perceived storm characteristics, official warnings, and hurricane experience predicted departure times. However, as expected, evacuation rates declined with distance from the coast; unlike Hurricane Rita 3 years earlier, there was a very low level of shadow evacuation in inland Harris County. Finally, most households evacuated 2 days before landfall, between the time of the National Hurricane Center hurricane watch and warning, and evacuated overwhelmingly during the daytime hours.
Geophysical and Social Influences on Evacuation Decision-Making: The Case of Hurricane Irma
Atmosphere
Understanding the factors that influence evacuation decision-making among local residents is of critical importance to those involved in monitoring and managing weather-related hazards. This study examined both geophysical and social variables that we believe influenced individual decision-making on whether to stay home, seek out a public shelter, or leave the area entirely during Hurricane Irma. A 23-item survey was administered to a convenience sample of adults (n = 234) who resided within a coastal Florida county that received an evacuation warning during Hurricane Irma in 2017. Results suggested sources of information relied on through media, government, family, and social networks contributed to differences in evacuation behavior. Moreover, potential exposure to weather-related conditions, such as flooding and strong winds, along with the likelihood to use available social resources, also influenced decisions to stay or leave the threatened area. Finally, prior evacuation behav...
An empirical evaluation of the determinants of household hurricane evacuation choice
Journal of Development and Agricultural Economics, 2010
In this study, we implement a set of probit models to analyze the determinants of household hurricane evacuation choice for a sample of 1,355 households in Florida. This article contributes to the literature by accounting for two issues normally neglected in previous studies; namely, regional variability and within season variability. The empirical results suggest that households living in risky environments (mobile home and flooding areas) are more likely to evacuate. In addition, households with children and those who have ...
A B S T R A C T Population evacuation is an important component of emergency management planning for a variety of hazards, especially hurricanes and tropical storms that threaten coastal communities. This study examined previous evacuation decisions and evacuation intentions across 13 southeast Louisiana coastal parishes. Overall, the results indicate that most people will evacuate from strong storms, especially when ordered to do so. Future evacuation intentions correlated with previous evacuation decisions and corresponded to storm strength and official evacuation orders. Demographic factors had varying effects on behavior and intentions, with gender and race having the most consistent effects. The effects of income, education, homeownership, and housing type varied by storm strength and had different effects for intentions than previous behaviors. Previous flooding and wind damage had minimal effects on evacuation intentions. Risk perception, especially perception of the safety of one's own home, had strong effects on evacuation intentions. Qualitative results support the quantitative findings showing that people continue to rely on storm strength, especially Category or wind speed, as an indicator of risk and that persons who would not evacuate felt their homes were safe or had jobs that required them to report for duty. The results call for more research into how predictors of actual behaviors and intentions vary even while behaviors and intentions are correlated and how individuals determine that their house is safe.
Fleeing the storm (s): an examination of evacuation behavior during Florida's 2004 hurricane season
Demography, 2009
The 2004 hurricane season was the worst in Florida’s history, with four hurricanes causing at least 47 deaths and some $45 billion in damages. To collect information on the demographic impact of those hurricanes, we surveyed households throughout the state and in the local areas that sustained the greatest damage. We estimate that one-quarter of Florida’s population evacuated prior to at least one hurricane; in some areas, well over one-half of the residents evacuated at least once, and many evacuated several times. Most evacuees stayed with family or friends and were away from home for only a few days. Using logistic regression analysis, we found that the strength of the hurricane and the vulnerability of the housing unit had the greatest impact on evacuation behavior; additionally, several demographic variables had significant effects on the probability of evacuating and the choice of evacuation lodging (family/friends, public shelters, or hotels/motels). With continued population growth in coastal areas and the apparent increase in hurricane activity caused by global warming, threats posed by hurricanes are rising in the United States and throughout the world. We believe the present study will help government officials plan more effectively for future hurricane evacuations.
Determinants of Hurricane Evacuation from a Large Representative Sample of the U.S. Gulf Coast
International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 2019
Exposure to natural disasters like hurricanes negatively impacts the mental and physical health of populations, and evacuation is an important step taken to prevent these adverse health events. This study uses data from a large representative sample of U.S. Gulf Coast residents to explore the determinants of hurricane evacuation. In December 2017, data were collected from 3030 residents of the U.S. Gulf Coast, including Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida—2557 of whom reported being impacted during the 2017 hurricane season. Bivariate analyses were conducted using prevalence differences and tested for statistical significance with chi-square tests. Multivariable logistic regression models were fitted to identify factors associated with hurricane evacuation. One-third of the respondents (919 of 2557; 35.9%) evacuated from a hurricane that impacted the U.S. Gulf Coast in 2017. The determinants of hurricane evacuation in this population were: residing in a mobile home, ...