Inference on the endpoint of human lifespan and its inherent statistical difficulty (original) (raw)
We offer an inference methodology for the upper endpoint of a regularly varying distribution with finite endpoint. We apply it to the IDL and GRG data sets of lifespans of supercentenarians. As in the comprehensive analysis of Rootzén and Zholud, our results underscore the effect of the data sampling scheme and censoring on the conclusions. We also quantify the statistical difficulty of distinguishing between the hypotheses of finite and infinite lifespan by providing estimates of the required sample size. 1 The Bible, facts, and myths The question about whether the natural human lifespan has a hard biological limit has been of great interest since the beginning of time. Not surprisingly, therefore, the answer can be found in The Bible, Genesis (The Wickedness of Mankind), Ch 6:3 [1]: And the Lord said, My Spirit shall not always strive with man, for that he also is flesh: yet his days shall be a hundred and twenty years.
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