From AI to AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) Implications, Risks, and Strategic Autonomy for the European Union (original) (raw)
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Artificial Intelligence and Europe: risks, developments and implications
2020
During a lesson on Knowledge Day in September 2017, Russian President Vladimir said: "Artificial intelligence is the future, not only for Russia, but for all humankind. It comes with colossal opportunities, but also threats that are difficult to predict. Whoever becomes the leader in this sphere will become the ruler of the world". Technology seems to have the power to change our work, our society and our daily life. It has become almost indispensable in everyday activities, and it involves many aspects of our lives. According to many experts, academics and policymakers, we are in the middle of the 4 th industrial revolution that will affect our societies in the next decades. The real actor in this process is Artificial Intelligence (AI), which has become more present and essential both in the private and public sector. AI is changing many aspects of people's lives and bring important benefits to society and the economy thanks to better healthcare, an efficient public administration, and safer transport. Comprehending and analysing AI is fundamental in order to embrace the next challenges of the future, and to be competitive with other global leaders. How can AI be used by Europe as a whole? Which are the rules that would be considered in the following years? And how would the rest of the world react to such innovations? How the EU should we respond to such innovation and create a quality brand? Intending to respond to these questions, the present paper examines the AI framework in Europe, its legal and ethical implications. This paper is divided into three sections: the first one gives an overall vision on AI and on the state of the art worldwide; the second one analyses the efforts that EU is making and should make to become a relevant character in the AI race; and finally the conclusion focuses on what lacks to Europe to be a global leader in the AI field. The United States (US) and China are clearly the world's leaders in such environment. On the other way round, the European Union (EU), is not in the game, despite the recent legislation developed by the Commission. In order to maximise the development of AI, new rules are necessary to guarantee principles, rights, and a fair use of it. To tackle the huge development carried out by the AI world's leaders, Europe should respond by setting two objectives: on one hand, to create a positive environment to invest; on the other hand, to emerge as a quality brand for AI, as recently happened with the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR). The paper argues that the EU is pointing to become a sort of referee in such field, spreading rules and guidelines in the digital environment. Nevertheless, leading in this field would not permit Europe to explore the opportunities that AI may give to European technological process.
The Transformative Potential of AI and the Role of G7
Rome, IAI, March 2024, 11 p. (Documenti IAI ; 24|03), 2024
The rapid advancement of artificial intelligence (AI) will have a wide-ranging impact on multiple spheres including politics, security and global economy. The G7 serves as a crucial platform for advancing discussions and building consensus on AI governance. G7 leaders have adopted International Guiding Principles and a voluntary Code of Conduct for AI under the Japanese Presidency, corroborating their commitment to make progress in this sphere. To promote a responsible development and deployment of AI technology, governments are at work to facilitate dialogue and cooperation with like-minded countries and international agencies and organisations, while promoting a multi-stakeholder and a whole-of-society approach at a national level. On 22 January 2024, the responsibility for this initiative formally shifted to the Italian leadership, which is now called upon to take the conversation forward and channel the collaboratively effort of G7 leaders into effective implementation and interoperability of allied AI regulatory frameworks. Designing flexible regulatory packages, able to accommodate the rapid pace of technological innovation while ensuring trustworthiness, is a pressing challenge and a pivotal step. G7 leaders are thus faced with the reasonability to deliver progress on the regulation of the digital domain, to unlock the full potential of transformative technologies.
Societies, 2024
This study investigates the profound and multifaceted impacts of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and geopolitical developments on global dynamics by 2040. Utilising a Delphi process coupled with probabilistic modelling, the research constructs detailed scenarios that reveal the cascading effects of these emerging forces across economic, societal, and security domains. The findings underscore the transformative potential of AI, predicting significant shifts in employment patterns, regulatory challenges, and societal structures. Specifically, the study forecasts a high probability of AI-induced unemployment reaching 40–50%, alongside the rapid evolution of AI technologies, outpacing existing governance frameworks, which could exacerbate economic inequalities and societal fragmentation. Simultaneously, the study examines the critical role of geopolitical developments, identifying increased nationalisation, the expansion of conflicts such as the Russia–Ukraine war, and the strategic manoeuvres of major powers like China and Israel as key factors that will shape the future global landscape. The research highlights a worrying lack of preparedness among governments and societies, with a 10% probability of their being equipped to manage the complex risks posed by these developments. This low level of readiness is further complicated by the short-term orientation prevalent in Western businesses, which prioritise immediate returns over long-term strategic planning, thereby undermining the capacity to respond effectively to these global challenges. The study calls for urgent, forward-looking policies and international cooperation to address the risks and opportunities associated with AI and geopolitical shifts. It emphasises the need for proactive governance, cross-sector collaboration, and robust regulatory frameworks to ensure that the benefits of technological and geopolitical advancements are harnessed without compromising global stability or societal well-being. As the world stands on the brink of unprecedented change, the findings of this study provide a crucial roadmap for navigating the uncertainties of the future.
The EU and artificial intelligence: A human-centred perspective
European View
This article analyses the potential benefits and drawbacks of artificial intelligence (AI). It argues that the EU should become a leading force in AI development. As a goal that captures the public imagination and mobilises a variety of actors, the EU should develop mission-based innovations that focus on using this technological leadership to solve the most pressing societal problems of our time whilst avoiding potential dangers and risks. This leadership could be achieved either by adapting the EU’s available instruments to focus on AI development or by designing new ones. Be it seeking a visionary future for AI or addressing concerns about it, progress should always be driven with the human-centred perspective in mind, that is, one that seeks to augment human intelligence and capacity, and not to supersede it.
Artificial intelligence : a European perspective
EUR, 2018
A brief history of AI 19 2.2 Recent developments in machine learning 20 2.3 Recent developments in social robots 21 2.4 Current challenges 22 2.5 Summary and conclusions 23 3 EU in the AI competitive global landscape 25 3.1 3.1.1 USA 25 3.2 Analysing the key features of the AI landscape 29 3.4 Technological capacity 34 3.5 Summary and conclusions 35 4 AI in the EU 37 4.1 Strategies and plans 37 4.1.1 The European Union 37 4.1.2 France 40 4.1.3 United Kingdom 41 4.1.4 Finland 43 4.2 Summary and conclusions 43 5 The AI ecosystem in China 45 5.3 Regional/local initiatives 49 5.5 Summary and conclusions 51 Table of contents Part 2: Multi-dimensional perspectives 6 Ethical and societal perspective 6.1 Introduction 6.2.1 Challenges at individual level 6.2.2 Challenges at societal level 6.3 Summary and conclusions 7 Legal perspective 7.3 The protection of AI inventions/creations by intellectual property rights 7.4 Regulatory approach 7.5 Summary and conclusions 8 Educational perspective 8.1 Introduction 8.2 AI impact on skills demand, learning and teaching 8.2.1 Direct AI impact on advanced skills demand 8.2.2 Impact of AI on learning 8.2.3 Impact of AI on teaching 8.3 AI skills and academic supply 8.4 Summary and conclusions 9 Economic perspective 9.2 Potential impact of AI on growth 9.3 Potential impact of AI on inequality 9.4 Summary and conclusions 10 Cybersecurity perspective 10.1 Background: AI and cybersecurity 10.2 Applications of AI in cybersecurity 10.4 Robustness of AI algorithms against malicious action 10.5 Summary and conclusions D D Table of contents 11 Computer processing and energy perspective 95 11.1 Introduction 95 11.2 Assessment of data centre (DC) energy consumption 96 demand for HPC. 96 11.3.1 CPU advancements: energy saving and parallelisation computing 97 solutions 98 11.4 Summary and conclusions 100 12 Data perspective 103 12.1 The law and economics of access to data 103 12.1.1 The economic characteristics of data 103 12.1.2 Applying economic reasoning to data access 104 12.1.3 Policy intervention in the data market 105 12.2 Summary 108 12.3 Towards a data strategy for public administrations 108 12.3.1 Setting the scene 108 12.3.2 About platforms and APIs 109 12.3.3 From opening data to smart sharing 110 12.4 Summary and conclusions 113 13 Societal resilience perspective 115 13.1 The need for resilience 115 13.2 Measuring resilience to AI 116 13.3 Lessons from the analysis of AI for understanding resilience 119 14 Summary and conclusions 120 Footnotes 122 References 125 136 137 Acknowledgements 138 6 10 The digital transformation of society has just begun: AI is central to this change and offers major opportunities to improve our lives.
European Strategy on AI: Are we truly fostering social good?
2020
Artificial intelligence (AI) is already part of our daily lives and is playing a key role in defining the economic and social shape of the future. In 2018, the European Commission introduced its AI strategy able to compete in the next years with world powers such as China and US, but relying on the respect of European values and fundamental rights. As a result, most of the Member States have published their own National Strategy with the aim to work on a coordinated plan for Europe. In this paper, we present an ongoing study on how European countries are approaching the field of Artificial Intelligence, with its promises and risks, through the lens of their national AI strategies. In particular, we aim to investigate how European countries are investing in AI and to what extent the stated plans can contribute to the benefit of the whole society. This paper reports the main findings of a qualitative analysis of the investment plans reported in 15 European National Strategies
The Arms Race in Artificial Intelligence & The 4th Sector of the Economy
The first arms race was the naval race during World War I, followed by the Cold War between United States and the Soviet Union, scaling up nuclear weaponry right after the end of World War II. The human race has been able to manage the prisoner's dilemma inherent to these competitions so far, and now faces a new test with the advent of a new technology breakthrough: Artificial Intelligence. This is a series of articles on the topic providing a vision toward an artificial intelligence explosion in the context of current economic changes supporting a shift in our economy toward an altruistic model. ___________________________________ Introduction: • Technological singularity seems plausible and recent advancements in machine learning and AI suggest the ‘intelligent explosion’ event is within reach in this century. • An arms race of narrow AI entities will happen in the framework of today’s traditional economy. Strong intelligence or AGI will eventually emerge followed by an explosion of intelligence. • New globalization processes driven by technology are fueling the sharing economy, as well as the 4th sector where public, non-profit, social and mission oriented enterprises are converging. • The 4th sector is poised to grow and thrive enabled by the sharing and collaborative economy; mission driven enterprises will have more resources enabling them to play a key role shaping the right path for AI evolution. • The AI arms race will provide ‘good’ and ‘bad’ entities in the context of existing and new economy environments (traditional and altruistic economies) • We, humans, as a species, can succeed managing the risks of a superintelligence event as we did in the past overcoming other technology threats (i.e nuclear).
AI and Its Policy Implications in Global Politics: Leverages and Impediments
JETIR, 2024
Artificial Intelligence (AI) is becoming one of the major evolutions in global politics along with other emerging technologies that comes under the umbrella terms of the Fourth Industrial Revolution. This new revolution has been challenging the traditional notion of economy and security since its inception. Many countries are investing massively in the advancement of this technology, and now it has become an indispensable aspect of global power. All countries have different approach of adoption and implications. China, United States and India have introduced their strategy paper on AI and policy makers are utilizing these emerging technologies as per their needs with the consideration of the environment of the society. There is no universal pattern on the policy making as there is no universal laws and norms of the usage of this technology and hence it creates apprehensions and hope among nations. This paper is focusing on the policies that have been introduced by major countries and it will critically analyze the opportunity and challenges to the global politics and its impact on nations. AI is creating another kind of digital divide and technological advancement gap between developed and developing nations. The quest of supremacy in AI between China and the United States is a major concern among nations as well as main determinant in policy making.