A new model for estimating in-hospital mortality in patients with pulmonary embolism: PATHOS score (original) (raw)
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Predicting Short-term Mortality in Patients With Pulmonary Embolism
The American Journal of the Medical Sciences, 2013
Background: The aim of the present study was to develop a simple prognostic rule that could classify patients with pulmonary embolism (PE) into categories of increased risk of 30-day mortality. Methods: One hundred patients with PE were enrolled. Clinical and laboratory findings were recorded on admission for each patient. Differences between groups' survival and death were tested, and the association with the 30day mortality was determined. Results: Three variables had a significant effect on survival: age, Charlson index and the alveolar to arterial (A-a) gradient. A receiver operating characteristic analysis was performed, and the cutoff points used for the comparison of survival were 67 years of age, A-a gradient over 52.8 mm Hg and Charlson index over 2. By combining these variables, a score was established for distinguishing patients with PE who are at high risk. This score was also validated in a group of 30 consecutive patients admitted to the hospital for PE Additionally, a tree method was applied and showed that for patients with a history of diabetes and Charlson index .3, the expected outcome is death. Conclusions: The results of this study suggest that patients with PE could be stratified into categories of increasing risk of 30-day mortality using a simple score based only on routinely available variables. Future studies are needed to validate our prognostic model in a large cohort of patients with PE.
A comparison of the original and simplified Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index
Thrombosis and Haemostasis, 2011
SummaryThe Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index (PESI) is a validated clinical prognostic model for patients with pulmonary embolism (PE). Recently, a simplified version of the PESI was developed. We sought to compare the prognostic performance of the original and simplified PESI. Using data from 15,531 patients with PE, we compared the proportions of patients classified as low versus higher risk between the original and simplified PESI and estimated 30-day mortality within each risk group. To assess the models’ accuracy to predict mortality, we calculated sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values and likelihood ratios for low-versus higher-risk patients. We also compared the models’ discriminative power by calculating the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve. The overall 30-day mortality was 9.3%. The original PESI classified a significantly greater proportion of patients as low-risk than the simplified PESI (40.9% vs. 36.8%; p<0.001). Low-risk patients base...
PloS one, 2017
Pulmonary embolism continues to be a significant cause of death. The aim was to derive and validate a risk prediction model for in-hospital death after acute pulmonary embolism to identify low risk patients suitable for outpatient management. A confirmed acute pulmonary embolism database of 1,426 consecutive patients admitted to a tertiary-center (2000-2012) was analyzed, with odd and even years as derivation and validation cohorts respectively. Risk stratification for in-hospital death was performed using multivariable logistic-regression modelling. Models were compared using receiver-operating characteristic-curve and decision curve analyses. In-hospital mortality was 3.6% in the derivation cohort (n = 693). Adding day-1 sodium and bicarbonate to simplified Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index (sPESI) significantly increased the C-statistic for predicting in-hospital death (0.71 to 0.86, P = 0.001). The validation cohort yielded similar results (n = 733, C-statistic 0.85). The new mo...
Background and aim: Prognostic stratification of acute pulmonary embolism (PE) represents the cornerstone of modern management of this potentially life-threatening disease. In the latest years, a lot of clinical prognostic models have been validated. However, these are yet underused in clinical practice, especially in real world populations. The aim of our study was to test the prognostic ability of the Simplified Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index (sPESI) score in a real world population. Methods: Data records of 452 patients that were discharged for acute PE from 28 Internal Medicine wards of Tuscany (Italy) were retrospectively analysed. sPESI was calculated in the identical manner as the original study. Prognostic ability of sPESI score for predicting in-hospital all-cause and PE-related mortality was tested by using Areas under Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) curve (AUC). Results: 15.2% of patients were classified as sPESI score 0, whereas 84.8% were classified as sPESI ≥ 1. All causes of in-hospital mortality were 10.95% (5.75% PE-related) in patients with sPESI score ≥ 1 and 0% (0% PE-related) in sPESI score 0. AUC for all causes of mortality was 0.694 (95% CI: 0.650-0.736), whereas it was 0.702 (95% CI: 0.657-0.743) for PE-related mortality. Conclusion: In a real world population, sPESI is a good prognosticator for all causes of in-hospital and PE-related mortality and its use should be encouraged.
Revista medico-chirurgicala a Societatii de Medici si Naturalisti din Iasi, 2014
The clinical evaluation in pulmonary embolism (PE) is the first instrument used by practitioners in the management of this potentially fatal pathology. The necessity of develop- ing certain valid and especially affordable practical instruments has led to the emergence of various clinical prediction models. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the main clinical scores, as a diagnostic or a prognostic tool, with their strengths and weaknesses. The PESI score, while relatively recent, remains the most investigated and validated prognostic score for the identification of the mortality risk and major adverse events, with economic implications of health services reduction costs through the accurate identification of patients with a low risk who are candidates of early hospital discharge. The simplified Geneva score (with a similar accuracy as the Geneva one) identifies a high or low PE probability, especially in combination with D-dimers, with a prognosis value as well. The Wells and s...
International Journal of Research in Medical Sciences, 2015
Background: Prognostic stratification is of utmost importance for management of acute Pulmonary Embolism (PE) in clinical practice. Many prognostic models have been proposed, but which is the best prognosticator in real life remains unclear. The aim of our study was to compare and combine the predictive values of the hemodynamics/biomarkers based prognostic model proposed by European Society of Cardiology (ESC) in 2008 and simplified PESI score (sPESI). Methods: Data records of 452 patients discharged for acute PE from Internal Medicine wards of Tuscany (Italy) were analysed. The ESC model and sPESI were retrospectively calculated and compared by using Areas under Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) Curves (AUCs) and finally the combination of the two models was tested in hemodinamically stable patients. All cause and PE-related in-hospital mortality and fatal or major bleedings were the analyzed endpoints Results: All cause in-hospital mortality was 25% (16.6% PE related) in high risk, 8.7% (4.7%) in intermediate risk and 3.8% (1.2%) in low risk patients according to ESC model. All cause in-hospital mortality was 10.95% (5.75% PE related) in patients with sPESI score ≥1 and 0% (0%) in sPESI score 0. Predictive performance of sPESI was not significantly different compared with 2008 ESC model both for all cause (AUC sPESI 0.711, 95% CI: 0.661-0.758 versus ESC 0.619, 95% CI: 0.567-0.670, difference between AUCs 0.0916, p=0.084) and for PE-related mortality (AUC sPESI 0.764, 95% CI: 0.717-0.808 versus ESC 0.650, 95% CI: 0.598-0.700, difference between AUCs 0.114, p=0.11). Fatal or major bleedings occurred in 4.30% of high risk, 1.60% of intermediate risk and 2.50% of low risk patients according to 2008 ESC model, whereas these occurred in 1.80% of high risk and 1.45% of low risk patients according to sPESI, respectively. Predictive performance for fatal or major bleeding between two models was not significantly different (AUC sPESI 0.658, 95% CI: 0.606-0.707 versus ESC 0.512, 95% CI: 0.459-0.565, difference between AUCs 0.145, p=0.34). In hemodynamically stable patients, the combined endpoint in-hospital PE-related mortality and/or fatal or major bleeding (adverse events) occurred in 0% of patients with low risk ESC model and sPESI score 0, whilst it occurred in 5.5% of patients with low-risk ESC model but sPESI ≥1. In intermediate risk patients according to ESC model, adverse events occurred in 3.6% of patients with sPESI score 0 and 6.65% of patients with sPESI score ≥1. Conclusions: In real world, predictive performance of sPESI and the hemodynamic/biomarkers-based ESC model as prognosticator of in-hospital mortality and bleedings is similar. Combination of sPESI 0 with low risk ESC model may identify patients with very low risk of adverse events and candidate for early hospital discharge or home treatment.
Vojnosanitetski pregled, 2019
Background/Aim. The evaluation of blood levels of cardiac troponin I (cTnI), D-dimer, B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP), and C-reactive protein (CRP) on admission and during the treatment of pulmonary embolism (PE) are the part of routine diagnostic process and estimation of mortality risk. The aim of this study was to evaluate the predictive value of these biomarkers on admission for all-cause 30-day mortality in consecutive PE patients regarding whether they classified as spontaneous, transiently provoked, or permanently provoked PE. Methods. This retrospective analysis was gained from the data of 590 PE patients from the Serbian University Multicenter Pulmonary Embolism Registry (SUPER). Patients had at least one of these biomarkers (BNP, CRP, cTnI, and D-dimer) measured during the first 24 hours upon admission. Results. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analyses demonstrated that BNP had the highest prognostic accuracy for 30-day mortality in patients (n = 219) who ha...