Time to Worry? Comparative Biases and Health-Related Behaviors in the Time of the COVID-19 Pandemic (original) (raw)
Related papers
Journal of Clinical Medicine, 2020
Objective: The results of numerous empirical studies have showed the occurrence of so-called unrealistic optimism. Thus, we aimed to investigate whether in the situation of an imminent coronavirus pandemic, people would still perceive themselves as being less exposed to the disease than others. Methods: Survey studies were conducted to examine the level of unrealistic optimism. Participants (n = 171, 67.3% of women) in a subjective way judged the risk of their coronavirus infection and the likelihood that this would happen to an average student of the same sex from their class. The survey was conducted in three waves: prior to the announcement of the first case of coronavirus (2–3 March), immediately after that announcement (5–6 March), and a few days later (9–10 March). Results: We showed that women estimated the chances of being infected as significantly higher (M = 4.52, SD = 2.079; t = 2.387; p = 0.018; Cohen’s d = 0.393) than men (M = 3.71, SD = 2.042). The phenomenon of unreal...
PLOS ONE
Numerous studies on unrealistic optimism (UO) have shown that people claim they are less exposed to COVID-19 infection than others. Yet, it has not been assessed if this bias evolves; does it escalate or diminish when the information about the threat changes? The present paper fills this gap. For 12 months 120 participants estimated their own and their peers’ risk of COVID-19 infection. Results show that UO regarding COVID-19 infection is an enduring phenomenon–It was the dominant tendency throughout almost the entire study and was never substituted by Unrealistic Pessimism. While the presence of UO-bias was constant, its magnitude changed. We tested possible predictors of these changes: the daily new cases/deaths, the changes in governmental restrictions and the mobility of participants’ community. Out of these predictors, only changes in governmental restrictions proved to be significant- when the restrictions tightened, UO increased.
Unrealistic Optimism and Risk for COVID-19 Disease
Frontiers in Psychology, 2021
Risk perception and consequently engagement in behaviors to avoid illness often do not match actual risk of infection, morbidity, and mortality. Unrealistic optimism occurs when individuals falsely believe that their personal outcomes will be more favorable than others' in the same risk category. Natural selection could favor overconfidence if its benefits, such as psychological resilience, outweigh its costs. However, just because optimism biases may have offered fitness advantages in our evolutionary past does not mean that they are always optimal. The current project examined relationships among personal risk for severe COVID-19, risk perceptions, and preventative behaviors. We predicted that those with higher risk of severe COVID-19 would exhibit unrealistic optimism and behave in ways inconsistent with their elevated risk of morbidity and mortality. Clinical risk scores for severe COVID-19 were calculated and compared with COVID-19 threat appraisal, compliance with shelter-...
Research conducted at the outset of the pandemic shows that people are vulnerable to unrealistic optimism (UO). However, the Weinstein model suggests that this tendency may not persist as the pandemic progresses. Our research aimed at verifying whether UO persists during the second (Study 1) and the third wave (Study 2) of the pandemic in Poland, whether it concerns the assessment of the chances of COVID-19 infection (Study 1 and Study 2), the chances of severe course of the disease and adverse vaccine reactions (Study 2). We show that UO towards contracting COVID-19 persists throughout the pandemic. However, in situations where we have little influence on the occurrence of the event, the participants do not show UO. The exceptions are those who have known personally someone who has died from a coronavirus infection. These results are discussed in terms of self-esteem protection and the psychological threat reduction mechanism.
The Effect of Hindsight Bias on Fear of Future Illness
Environment and Behavior, 1993
This article reports on the relationship between outcome knowledge regarding an environmental event and self-reported fear of future illness. A sample of 95 subjects in three conditions showed that outcome knowledge increases post event likelihood estimations, thus indicating a hindsight bias. Subjects' perceived likelihood of increases in disease rate is shown to substantially predict subjects' level of fear of future illness for both cancer and no cancer disease. Demographic variables of gender, political ideology, and attitude toward environmental activism were shown to have mixed results in predicting fear of future illness. Positive attitude toward environmental activism modesty predicted fear of cancer but not fear of noncancer disease. Political ideology failed to significantly predict fear of future illness, although it showed a trend toward significance for predicting fear of cancer. Gender significantly predicted fear of noncancer disease but not fear of cancer, wi...
The Power of Self-Deception: Psychological Reaction to the COVID-19 Threat
Acta Neuropsychologica
Poland’s inhabitants have often expressed disbelief and negative attitudes toward social isolation, combined with restlessness. This is due to a tendency to discount troubling informa tion while facing the unknown and counter-argue against information that causes discomfort and fear. This tendency helps humans to maintain hope and well-being. The study aimed to determine if Polish citizens tend to downplay or even deny danger when faced with a death threat. The study comprised 58 adults – 46 females 12 males, aged 21 to 49. The participants were asked to answer 12 questions defining their beliefs and attitudes towards the COVID-19 pandemic threat and its consequences. The subjects gave answers on the 5-point Likert scale, from "definitely not" to "definitely yes". The findings of the present study show that a considerable number of the participants tend to exhibit an optimistic bias. This is reflected in their direct statements and in the lack of congruence of th...
Journal of Behavioral Medicine, 1987
A mailed questionnaire was used to obtain comparative risk judgments for 32 different hazards from a random sample of 296 individuals living in central New Jersey. The results demonstrate that an optimistic bias about susceptibility to harm-a tendency to claim that one is less at risk than one's peers-is not limited to any particular age, sex, educational, or occupational group. It was found that an optimistic bias is often introduced when people extrapolate from their past experience to estimate their future vulnerability. Thus, the hazards most likely to elicit unrealistic optimism are those associated with the belief(often incorrect) that if the problem has not yet appeared, it is unlikely to occur in the future. Optimistic biases also increase with the perceived preventability of a hazard and decrease with perceived frequency and personal experience. Other data presented illustrate the inconsistent relationships between personal risk judgments and objective risk factors.
Can Self-Protective Behaviors Increase Unrealistic Optimism? Evidence from the COVID-19 Pandemic
Journal of Experimental Psychology: Applied, 2021
People tend to believe they are more (less) likely to experience positive (negative) outcomes than similar others. While research has consistently shown that feeling unrealistically optimistic about future events influences the adoption of self-protective behaviors, much less is known about the opposite relationship. We address this gap by examining whether and how self-protective behaviors influence unrealistic optimism in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. Across two preregistered, high-powered experiments (N = 4,707), we document a generalized unrealistic optimism about the health risks associated with COVID-19. Critically, we show that prompting people to think about a precautionary behavior they often perform (i.e., mask wearing) magnifies this preexisting tendency. Egocentrism, but not self-enhancement and/or better-than-average effects, helps to explain the phenomenon. Theoretical contributions and substantive implications to health risk research and policy are discussed. Public Significance Statement This research shows that past self-protective behaviors (e.g., mask wearing) enhance people's propensity to feel unrealistically safer than similar others. This finding suggests that although encouraging precautionary measures is fundamental to boost self-protection, communication strategies should not just focus on the safety benefits of such measures, but also ask individuals to be wary of this potential unintended psychological consequence.
Implications of The Dimensionality of Unrealistic Optimism For The Study of Perceived Health Risks
Journal of Social and Clinical Psychology, 2001
To examine the dimensions of unrealistic optimism, 635 college students indicated their relative likelihood of experiencing 25 health problems commonly used in studies of unrealistic optimism. Factor analyses of these estimates yielded five correlated, but distinct factors, suggesting that unrealistic optimism is not a unidimensional construct. Two factors, Common and Mixed, were comprised of heterogeneous problems. The Common factor was comprised of problems similar to those frequently used in other studies, and these problems were also perceived as more likely to occur than problems comprising other factors. Three factors were comprised of problems in specific domains, (1) substance abuse, (2) sexuality, and (3) mental health. Participants' psychological well-being and dispositional optimism were negatively correlated with perceived risk of experiencing mental health problems, whereas these measures were unrelated to perceived risks for other types of problems. The present results suggest that results of studies on unrealistic optimism may vary considerably as a function of the specific health risks being examined. Contemporary research on well-being is informed by the realization that wellness is influenced by the decisions and choices people make regarding health-relevant behaviors. Although some individuals behave in ways that promote well-being, others behave in ways that put them at risk for negative health outcomes. A variety of researchers have suggested that individuals engage in risky behaviors in part because they underestimate the likelihood that they will experience health problems, and such underestimates have been referred to as unrealistic optimism (Weinstein, 1980). In studies of unrealistic optimism, people are typically asked to estimate the likelihood they will experience a certain negative event relative