A combined ex-post/ex-ante impact analysis for improved sorghum and finger millet varieties in Uganda, Socioeconomics Discussion Paper Series Number 19 (original) (raw)

This country-level impact study for Tanzania combines ex-post and ex-ante estimation of research gains from improved sorghum varieties developed by the National breeding program of Tanzania together with its collaboration partners from international and national research institutions such as ICRISAT and private companies. Poverty targeting: How much of the research gains go to the poor? In terms of total research gains around USD Mio. 500 (41%) out of USD 1,200 Mio. are directed towards the 'poor'. Similar to the baseline results, most of the gains occur on the consumption side (USD 334 Mio) and much less on the production side. A decisive factor in the allocation of the research gains is how well the sorghum varieties perform and generate gains in the three major sorghum districts. Any research gains in the Dodoma region which has a relatively low poverty rate of 24.6 tend to dilute the poverty focus. The contrary holds true for the Singida and Shinyanga regions that exhibit much higher poverty rates (49 and 42%). If the research gains are compared with the poverty share in sorghum production, one can conclude that the sorghum research program in Tanzania is fairly 'poverty neural'. If compared with the national poverty rate, it can be labelled as 'poverty friendly'.