Macroeconomic determinants of non-performing loans in GCC economies: does the global financial crisis matter (original) (raw)
Related papers
Macroeconomic Determinants of Non-Performing Loans: An Empirical Study of Some Arab Countries
The issue of non-performing loans is one of the factors that reflect the soundness of the banking sector. The main objective of this study is to identify macroeconomic determinants of non-performing loans in some Arab countries through the period 2000-2012 using the dynamic panel data approach. The outcomes of this paper suggest that inflation rate has a negative impact on NPLs, whereas improvement in macroeconomic and financial conditions seems to have a negative impact on the level of NPLs. Regarding the impact of the global financial crisis, the results show that the crisis had a negative impact on the level of NPLs. With regard to household consumption, the outcomes point out to mixed results where this effect seems to be negative in non-petroleum countries but positive in petroleum countries, whereas increasing of government spending is associated with low level of NPLs in both groups of countries. Moreover, an increase of the aggregate debt burden has a positive impact on the level of bad loans whereas expansionary monitory policy and improvement of terms of trade in petroleum countries have a significant negative effect on NPLs but this effect is not clear in non-petroleum countries.
Macroeconomic Determinants of Non-performing Loans: From Turkish Banking Sector
2018
The issue of non-performing loans is one of the factors that reflect the soundness of the banking sector. The main objective of this study is to identify macroeconomic determinants of non-performing loans in some Arab countries through the period 2000-2012 using the dynamic panel data approach. The outcomes of this paper suggest that inflation rate has a negative impact on NPLs, whereas improvement in macroeconomic and financial conditions seems to have a negative impact on the level of NPLs. Regarding the impact of the global financial crisis, the results show that the crisis had a negative impact on the level of NPLs. With regard to household consumption, the outcomes point out to mixed results where this effect seems to be negative in non-petroleum countries but positive in petroleum countries, whereas increasing of government spending is associated with low level of NPLs in both groups of countries. Moreover, an increase of the aggregate debt burden has a positive impact on the level of bad loans whereas expansionary monitory policy and improvement of terms of trade in petroleum countries have a significant negative effect on NPLs but this effect is not clear in non-petroleum countries.
Non-Performing Loans in the GCC banking systems and their macroeconomics effects. IMF working paper
2010
This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF. The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate. According to a dynamic panel estimated over 1995-2008 on around 80 banks in the GCC region, the NPL ratio worsens as economic growth becomes lower and interest rates and risk aversion increase. Our model implies that the cumulative effect of macroeconomic shocks over a three year horizon is indeed large. Firm-specific factors related to risk-taking and efficiency are also related to future NPLs. The paper finally investigates the feedback effect of increasing NPLs on growth using a VAR model. According to the panel VAR, there could be a strong, albeit short-lived feedback effect from losses in banks' balance sheets on economic activity, with a semi-elasticity of around 0.4.
The Macro Economic Drivers of Non-Performing Loans (NPL): Evidence from Selected Countries with Heterogeneous Panel Analysis, 2021
NPL could be treated as a critical issue in the financial systems of countries of which have bank-based infrastructures since NPL restrict the credit providing capacity of banks. Hence, necessary financing sources for economic growth and development could not be provided. In this context, the study aims to research the drivers of NPL in selected 23 countries. 4 independent drivers and yearly data between 2006 and 2018 are analyzed by using heterogeneous panel analysis. The empirical findings reveal that (i) credits, gross domestic products (GDP), and savings have statistically significant negative effect whereas foreign exchange rates (FER) have a statistically insignificant positive effect on NPL for the overall panel; (ii) 1% increase in credits reduces NPL by approximately 2%; (iii); FER have statistically significant effects in some countries at the country base; (iv) negative coefficients for credits, savings, and GDP are consistent in both overall panel and country base.
2019
Using panel data approach in the Pakistan banking sector over the period 2010 to 2016, we examine the bank-specific and macroeconomic determinants of non-performing loans. We use quantitative research design with OLS random effect model. Furthermore, we use various regression and correlation analysis in this study. We find that rise in capital adequacy ratio, bank size, GDP growth rate, and inflation, reduces the non-performing loans (NPL) ratio. Our results also show that a rise in loan loss provisions enhances the NPL ratio. Our results suggest that banks with poor asset-quality can sabotage the growth of fiscal as well as the economic sector. Outcomes of the study emphasis on the need to clear-out the NPLs to keep financial sector sound. NPLs can cause high loan loss provisions which affect the capitalization of banks that ultimately impacts fiscal and economic growth. Bank supervisory agencies should therefore pay attention to monitory and macroeconomic policies of the banks. T...
Future Business Journal
The study empirically investigates selected macroeconomic determinants of non-performing loans (NPLs) for a panel of 8 South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation countries (Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal, Maldives, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka), using annual data for the period 2008–2019. To examine the association, this study, primarily, conducted the OLS model, fixed effect estimates, and random effect estimates and, eventually, applied robust fixed effect estimates to resolve the problem of heteroscedasticity. The empirical findings confirmed the previous findings, indicating a significant positive association with the government budget balance and a significant inverse relationship with GDP, sovereign debt, inflation rate, and money supply. To reduce the aggregate NPLs in the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation economy, the respective country’s government should identify the financial sector’s vulnerabilities and, thereby, emphasize boosting the econ...
MANAS Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, 2021
NPL could be treated as a critical issue in the financial systems of countries of which have bank-based infrastructures since NPL restrict the credit providing capacity of banks. Hence, necessary financing sources for economic growth and development could not be provided. In this context, the study aims to research the drivers of NPL in selected 23 countries. 4 independent drivers and yearly data between 2006 and 2018 are analyzed by using heterogeneous panel analysis. The empirical findings reveal that (i) credits, gross domestic products (GDP), and savings have statistically significant negative effect whereas foreign exchange rates (FER) have a statistically insignificant positive effect on NPL for the overall panel; (ii) 1% increase in credits reduces NPL by approximately 2%; (iii); FER have statistically significant effects in some countries at the country base; (iv) negative coefficients for credits, savings, and GDP are consistent in both overall panel and country base.
Causes of Non-Performing Loans: the experience of Gulf Cooperation Council countries
Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Issues
As financial intermediaries and provider of financial services, banking sector plays a pivotal role in the development of any economy. Performance of loans in banks' portfolios is a critical issue for this sector. The purpose of this study is to examine the determinants of Non-Performing Loans in Gulf Cooperation Council region. This study investigates the significant factors determining the Non-Performing Loans in banking sector of this region taking into consideration bank specific as well as macroeconomic factors. Two step Generalized Method of Moments approach to study the relationship among the variables was used to examine the determinants of Non-Performing Loans in this region for a period from 2009 to 2015. Four different models employed as a result of the examination of the theories were used to observe and analyse the determinants of these non-performing loans. According to the findings of the model generated from the bad management hypothesis, Non-performing loans are a serious issue requiring due attention, and bank profitability measured by Return on Average Assets has significant and negative effect on Non-Performing Loans. This suggests that banks in this region have more incentive to increase return by using their assets and effectively managing the funds contributed by the shareholders respectively.