Non-response to Early Warning: A Comparative Study of Three Recent Cyclones in Bangladesh (original) (raw)
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Keywords: Cyclone Sidr, Cyclone Warning, Evacuation Orders, Cyclone Shelters, Bangladesh, 2014
"The objective of this paper is to identify the causes of people’s noncompliance with evacuation initiatives during cyclone sidr and comparing with previous other studies to find out common responsible factors for non-evacuation. Besides, the role of selected socio-economic and demographic variables on human evacuation response behaviour to cyclone warning will also be explored. A total 331 out of 792households living in three villages devastated by cyclone Sidr were selected. A questionnaire survey was conducted at household level following simple random sampling procedure. Both descriptive and inferential statistics are used to analyze data. The present study finds that more than 90 percent of respondents had received cyclone warning and nearly 41 percent had evacuated in formal and informal cyclone shelters. However, only 13.6 percent had formally evacuated to the designated cyclone shelters. Following of evacuation order significantly increased in 2007 (sidr) than 1970 (the great Bhola) and 1991 (Gorky) cyclones. Even though Bangladesh has made significant progress in cyclone warning dissemination, there still some critical deficiencies in evacuation response. Reasons are broadly cyclone shelter related, warning message related and respondent’s perception related. Such reasons are in fact consistent with previous studies on Sidr, Gorky and the Great Bhola cyclones. Besides, several factors such as location, age, gender, education, primary occupation, distance from cyclone shelter and access to road and cyclone shelter play vital roles for evacuation decisions. Based on the findings, the present study recommend improved cyclone early warning, and monitoring how far warning messages are transmitted to local people, utilization of existing shelter and construction small denser shelter, assurance of post-cyclone security, and awareness creation through education campaign by targeting vulnerable groups and places for disaster risk reduction. Keywords: Cyclone Sidr, Cyclone War"
Responses to Cyclone Warnings: The Case of Cyclone Mora (2017) in Bangladesh
Sustainability
Effective disaster warning systems prevent deaths and injuries and protect livelihoods. We examined why people at risk do not move to safe places despite warnings and evacuation orders, by looking at responses to warnings for Cyclone Mora (2017) in Bangladesh in two villages of the Khulna District. Qualitative and quantitative data showed that almost all respondents received warnings before the cyclone, most from more than one source. However, only 21.6% of households took shelter in any place other than their own house. Most of these households did so with all members of their household, and most used a cyclone shelter. Almost all non-evacuee households had more than one reason for not moving to another place. The most important reasons were that they thought the weather was good despite warnings, thought the cyclone would not occur in their area, had a fatalistic attitude, were a long distance from the nearest cyclone shelter, had poor road networks to go to the cyclone shelter, c...
Warning systems as social processes for Bangladesh cyclones
Disaster Prevention and Management: An International Journal
Purpose The purpose of this paper is to connect the theoretical idea of warning systems as social processes with empirical data of people’s perceptions of and actions for warning for cyclones in Bangladesh. Design/methodology/approach A case study approach is used in two villages of Khulna district in southwest Bangladesh: Kalabogi and Kamarkhola. In total, 60 households in each village were surveyed with structured questionnaires regarding how they receive their cyclone warning information as well as their experiences of warnings for Cyclone Sidr in 2007 and Cyclone Aila in 2009. Findings People in the two villages had a high rate of receiving cyclone warnings and accepted them as being credible. They also experienced high impacts from the cyclones. Yet evacuation rates to cyclone shelters were low. They did not believe that significant cyclone damage would affect them and they also highlighted the difficulty of getting to cyclone shelters due to poor roads, leading them to prefer ...
EARLY WARNINGS AND RESPONSES TO EVACUATION ORDERS: THE CASE OF CYCLONE AILA IN BANGLADESH
Jahangirnagar University Journal of Science, 2013
Cyclone Aila hit in the southwestern coastal region of Bangladesh and India on 25 May, 2009. Despite cyclone warning evacuation orders for the coastal residents of Bangladesh, thousands of individuals didn't take safe places in due time. This paper attempts to explore the dissemination of early warning systems, assesses the warning responses, and examines the reasons why many people had lately evacuated during cyclone Aila in the study area. Field data collected from 138 Aila affected households of Sreenagar Kalinagar mauza of Dacope Upazila, Khulna, Bangladesh. As the study area was not affected for long time by atmospheric hazards; for this preparedness mechanisms were not adequate to enforce evacuation orders. The study revealed that attribute of warning message couldn't understand rightly among the inhabitants, thus the residents of the study area were not evacuated at right time and in right places. Field data also revealed why many people had lately evacuated. The reasons were mainly transferring the household materials in the safe places, fear of burglary and lately received warnings. Based on the study findings, we recommend activated the hazards preparedness mechanisms especially CPP activities, introduce mobile phone warning message; and construct more public shelters as well as ensure proper utilization of existing shelters for similar events in future.
Climate Change and Disaster Risk Management
This paper explores the causes of non-response to cyclone warning and unwillingness to seek refuge and identifies natural methods for predicting cyclones and storm surge through local knowledge, which could be integrated into a modern cyclone forecasting system in coastal Bangladesh. Despite significant progress in cyclone forecasting in Bangladesh, still it lacks in clear communication of warning information to people at risk at the local level, and also in terms of accuracy in the prediction of landfall timing as well as intensity factor. The study reveals that coastal inhabitants are frequently familiar with cyclones and aware of the potential risks; however, they do not respond to cyclone warnings proactively because of poor road networks, long distances between home and cyclone shelters, low capacity of cyclone shelters, fear of burglary and stealing of household assets and goods, disbelief and misinterpretation of warning information, etc. There is also a higher degree of fatalism among the people. There are other reasons why people do not respond to official warnings, such as poor understanding of cyclone warnings, past experience of the failure of warnings, no or limited income-earning opportunities during and after the cyclone if people decide to evacuate, pressure from employers to go fishing, etc. This study also explores the fact that coastal inhabitants can predict the onset of cyclones based on local indigenous knowledge gained through everyday life on the coast. This method of indigenous cyclone prediction is based on a combination of different factors, such as unusual animal behaviour, water and weather conditions, etc. The present study advocates building , Ó Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2013 15 awareness of proactive responses to official cyclone early warnings while integrating local knowledge systems in order to improve the proactive response rate and establish reliable forecasting that would help in disaster mitigation and lessen the emergency management activities.
Living with the Risks of Cyclone Disasters in the South-Western Coastal Region of Bangladesh
Bangladesh is one of the most disaster prone countries in the world. Cyclone disasters that affect millions of people, destroy homesteads and livelihoods, and trigger migration are common in the coastal region of Bangladesh. The aim of this article is to understand how the coastal communities in Bangladesh deal with the continuous threats of cyclones. As a case study, this study investigates communities that were affected by the Cyclone Sidr in 2007 and Cyclone Aila in 2009, covering 1555 households from 45 coastal villages in the southwestern region of Bangladesh. The survey method incorporated household based questionnaire techniques and community based focus group discussions. The pre-event situation highlights that the affected communities were physically vulnerable due to the strategic locations of the cyclone shelters nearer to those with social supreme status and the location of their houses in relatively low-lying lands. The victims were also socioeconomically vulnerable considering the high rate of illiteracy, larger family size, no ownership of land, and extreme poverty. They were mostly day labourers, farmers, and fishermen. Post-event situation reveals that the victims' houses and livelihoods were severely damaged or destroyed. Most victims were forced to shift their occupations (e.g., from farmers to fishermen), and many became unemployed. They also became heavily dependent on micro-credits and other forms of loans. A significant number of people were displaced and migrated to large urban agglomerations in search of livelihoods to maintain their families back in the affected villages. Migration was primarily undertaken as an adaptation strategy.
Vulnerability to Tropical Cyclones: Evidence from the April 1991 Cyclone in Coastal Bangladesh
Disasters, 1992
In this article we report the results ofa survey conducted in two coastal communities of Bangladesh less than two zoeeks after they were hit by the severe cyclone of April 29, 1991. It was found that almost all of the surveyed heads of households had received early warnings of the cyclone. Nevertheless, a majority of the respondents did not leave their homes to seek shelter. The two most common reasons given for this passive reaction were (i) fear of burglary and (ii) disbelief of the warnings. Thus, it appears that the existing system of early warnings is not having its intended effect and that it, and related disaster mitigation policies, need to be revised. Some suggestions are made as to what could be done. DISASTERS VOLUME 16 NUMBER 3
A Systematic Review of the Factors Affecting the Cyclone Evacuation Decision Process in Bangladesh
Journal of Disaster Research, 2016
Researchers are investigating a broad spectrum of factors affecting positively and/or negatively the evacuation decision-making process occurring after people at risk receive cyclone warnings and advisories. Previous studies suggest that early warnings themselves do not propagate evacuation processes to be investigated but, rather, that human risk perceptions do so. This in turn encourages the sociopsychological dimensions of risk perception to be evaluated, which must be done within a country’s own cultural context. In applying content analysis here, we review the literature on evacuation decision-making processes during rapidonset hazards, i.e., tropical cyclones, in coastal Bangladesh. We focus on three broad overlapping themes – early warning, risk perception, and evacuation decision-making. Major content-analysis findings suggest that two things – a lack of credibility in early warning messages and an inefficient dissemination process – tend to affect the risk perception of peo...
Seeking Shelter: The factors that influence refuge since Cyclone Gorkyin the Coastal Area of Bangladesh
Considering damage and loss of lives, cyclones are the most severe natural disaster in Bangladesh. One of the most important cyclone mitigation measures is to temporarily evacuate the vulnerable population on receipt of warning and look after them by arranging shelters with adequate facilities. To ensure effective and efficient evacuation, it is important to better understand people's protective actions and hazard decision making. This paper provides an assessment of the factors associated with evacuation to cyclone shelters in coastal areas in Bangladesh over the past 30 years. It is based on the comparative study of Cyclone Amphan (2020) and three major historical cyclones: Gorky (1991), Sidr (2007) and Aila (2009). Primary data sources included surveys, focus group discussions, key informant interviews and formal and informal conversations; and secondary data sources included reports, policies and design documents. 210 participants from seven coastal districts severely affected by Cyclone Amphan are selected for the study. While substantial improvements in the disaster response infrastructure were made in the last three decades, shelter evacuation rates are still low. It was found that the majority of people are still taking a 'wait-and-see' approach mainly due to the fear of losing property. It was found that partial evacuation, observing environmental cues prior to evacuation and seeking refuge in neighbours' houses, is indirectly associated with the fear of losing property. There is also inadequate spatial distribution of cyclone shelters with minimal facilities. This study provides recommendations to intensify riskbased planning for cyclone shelters and gender-responsive efforts to ensure a safe environment for the community to seek refuge at shelters with proper planning at the community level.
Natural Hazards, 2011
The purpose of this research is to explore indigenous coping strategies and identify underlying demographic, socio-economic and other relevant variables that influence the adoption of coping strategies in three distinct cyclone-prone coastal villages of Bangladesh. The study finds that cyclones and induced surges are a recurrent phenomenon in coastal Bangladesh; hence people are used to adjusting their lifestyle and adopting their own coping strategies intelligently. Adoption of a particular set of coping strategies depends not only on the magnitude, intensity and potential impacts of the cyclone and induced surge, but also age, gender, social class, dissemination of early warning information, locational exposure, external assistance, social protection and informal risk sharing mechanisms within the community. Indigenous cyclone disaster prevention and mitigation strategies significantly minimize the vulnerability of the people. Under extreme situations, when such disasters surpass the shock-bearing capacity of the victims, informal risk sharing mechanisms through social bonding and social safety-nets become vital for short-term survival and long-term livelihood security. Therefore, proper monitoring and understanding of local indigenous coping strategies are essential in order to target the most vulnerable groups exposed to disasters. Additionally, proper dissemination of early warning and government and non-government partnerships for relief and rehabilitation activities should be prioritized to ensure pro-poor disaster management activities. The study also recommends effective monitoring of the impact of aid to ensure corrective measures to avoid the development of relief dependency by disaster victims.