Interactive simulation for planning, managing and negotiating (original) (raw)
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Computer Support for Implementation of a Systemic Approach to Water Conflict Resolution
Water International, 2003
Water is an important factor in conflicts among stakeholders at the local, regional, and even international level. Water conflicts have taken many forms, but they almost always arise from the fact that the freshwater resources of the world are not partitioned to match the political borders, nor are they evenly distributed in space and time. Two or more countries share the watersheds of 261 major rivers and nearly half of the land area of the world is in international river basins. Water has been used as a military and political goal. Water has been a weapon of war, and water systems have been targets during the war. A systemic approach has been taken in this research to approach resolution of conflicts over water. By helping stakeholders to explore and resolve the underlying structural causes of conflict our approach offers a significant opportunity for its resolution. We define the five main functional activities for assisting the conflict resolution process as: (i) communication; (ii) problem formulation; (iii) data gathering and information generation; (iv) information sharing; and (v) evaluation of consequences. A computerized technical support is developed in the form of the Conflict Resolution Support System (CRSS) for implementation of a systemic approach to water conflicts. Its principal components include an artificial intelligence-based communication system, a database management system, and a model base management system. At this stage of the development, the model base management system consists of tools for multipurpose reservoir operation, river flow routing, multi-criteria decision-making, spatial data analysis, and other general utilities. A hypothetical river basin with potential conflict between stakeholders with respect to water sharing and flood control is used to demonstrate the utility of the new approach and the computer system developed for its implementation.
International River Basin Negotiations: Building a Database of Illustrative Successes
1988
Within IIASA's Environment Program, one of the objectives of the Project on Decision Support Systems for Managing Large International River Basins is to improve the exploitation of increasingly cheap and powerful computer analyses in international river basin negotiations and management. For hardware, the focus is on personal computers, as they may be the only technology reliably available in some parts of the world. For software, the emphasis is on graphics and menu-driven routines that are easy to use and interpret. The computer work at IIASA is being done in connection with two case studies of international negotiations and joint management. One concerns the Gabcikovo-Nagymaros barrage and hydroelectric project on the Danube River. The other has been initiated in the context of the Zambezi Action Plan (ZACPLAN), signed by five of the eight Zambezi River Basin states in May 1987. One purpose is to assure that IIASA's software development is directly relevant and useful to ...
2007
A project being carried out at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis and various collaborating research institutes and universities in Europe and in North America is attempting to develop and evaluate the effectivenesss of decision-support systems for river planning, management and conflict negotiation. Two river basin case studies have been selected, the Danube and the Zambezi. Both are international rivers and because of that, the use of the water by one country can adversely impact on another country. One river basin is in a developed region, the other is not. Given these varying conditions, can a relatively recently developed tool, using microcomputers and interactive computer graphicsbased programs for data input, editing, analysis and display, significanlty help those who must plan, manage or negotiate conflicts? Can this new technology actually narrow the gap rather than widen it? While the answers to these questions are not yet known, this paper describes ...
Interactive Computer Support System for the Management of Large Rivers: The Zambezi River Case Study
IFAC Proceedings Volumes, 1990
A bstract. The paper presents the basic concepts of an interactive PC-AT based software package IRIS for simulation analysis of various development planning and management policy options in large river systems. IRIS package together with multiobjective optimization was used to analyse problems of hydropower generation and operation of reservoirs in the Zambezi river basin. Problems of water management in the basin were discussed and approaches to solve formulated decision problem presented. Combined use of optimization and simulation techniques is discussed: proposed optimal solution of the problem was analysed in the framework of IRIS to detect the impact of modification of this solution on the system's performances, including secondary objectives. Finally, conclusions on the applicability of IRIS package are drawn .
2003
Water is an important factor in conflicts among stakeholders at the local, regional, and international level. Water conflicts have taken many forms, but they almost always arise from the fact that the freshwater resources of the world are not partitioned to match the political borders, nor are they evenly distributed in space and time. Sharing a limited water resource by several stakeholders can create conflicts among them when their requirements exceed availability. In such situations, water allocation based on a traditional optimization or simulation modeling may not resolve the dispute among them due to the lack of their participation in the solution process. Direct involvement of the stakeholders in the conflict resolution process provides for a better understanding of the conflict and offers a significant opportunity for its resolution. A systemic approach has been taken in this research to approach resolution of conflicts over water. By helping stakeholders to explore and reso...
Development of a web-based decision support system (DSS) for managing large international rivers
Global Environmental Change-human and Policy Dimensions, 2004
The paper contains discussion of the basic concepts underlying development of decision support systems (DSS). Building upon this foundation, the problems associated with creation of DSS are presented together with an analysis of information needs arising during decisionmaking processes associated with utilization of water resource systems. Thereafter, examples of DSS developed for water resource systems are presented and problems associated with development of DSS on the Internet discussed. A prototype Web-based decision support system developed for analysing consequences of various policy alternatives in a large international river (Ganges) is presented. There are two main conclusions from this prototype application. First, there is great potential for using the DSS to undertake systematic management of shared river basins, leading to effective conflict resolution. Second, there a number of challenges in full-scale implementation of the DSS approach, which can resolved through further research and development.
From Design to Application of a Decision-support System for Integrated River-basin Management
Water Resources Management, 2009
During the last two decades several integrated tools have been developed to make the existing scientific knowledge available to river managers and assist them with the formulation and evaluation of alternative combinations of measures. Yet, few practical examples of embedding of these instruments in river management organizations can be observed so far. This paper identifies the possible organizational, technical, and scientific factors that may form an obstacle for the design and application of a Decision-Support System (DSS) for river-basin management by analyzing the interaction between the different participants in the Elbe DSS
Computer-Assisted Negotiations of Water Resources Conflicts
Group Decision and Negotiation, 1998
This paper describes the algorithms within and results obtained using an interactive computer program developed to assist those involved in negotiating agreements among parties having conflicting objectives. This Interactive Computer-Assisted Negotiation Support system (ICANS) can be used during the negotiation process by opposing parties or by a professional mediator. On the basis of information provided to the program, in confidence, by each party, it can help all parties identify feasible alternatives, if any exist, that should be preferred to each party's proposal. If such alternatives do not exist, the program can help parties develop counter proposals. Through a series of iterations in which each party's input data, assumptions, and preferences may change, ICANS can aid each party in their search for a mutually acceptable and preferred agreement. This paper describes the algorithms used for analyzing preferences and for generating alternative feasible agreements. Also presented a re the results of some limited experiments involving water resource system development and use conflicts that illustrate the potential of programs such as ICANS.
Decision Support Systems for Sustainable Development of River Basins
2011
According to the European Water Framework Directive 2000/60/EC, all member states must formulate and implement Integrated River Basin Management (IRBM) strategies. Water resources management is not a straightforward task not only due to computational limits in modelling, but also due to the multiple interdependent processes (physical, biochemical, ecological, social, legal and political) that govern the behaviour of water resource systems. These processes are affected by uncertainties and by the unpredictable actions of multiple individuals and institutions involved in the management and operation of such systems. The Decision Support Systems (DSS) for River Basin Management (RBM) enable the comparison of water strategies for different scenarios based on the effects of multiple objectives. They can be used to support the planning and implementation of measures, as well as the communication between public authorities and other public or private stakeholders. The present paper aims to...
Environmental Modelling & Software, 2007
River basin management decisions have to be made under uncertainty. Relevant uncertainties especially in external driving forces can often not be sufficiently reduced. Rather than expecting to eliminate them, new management strategies should thus aim at taking them into account. Simulation tools can support a process of reasoning about the implications of uncertainties for the outcome of management policies in a specific river basin management context. Model supported scenario analysis of alternative strategies with authorities, managers and other stakeholders can assist in the development of new strategies. The tools provide factual knowledge on the outcome of policy options proposed as scenarios by the participants to the debate. The GIS-based simulation tool TUGAI has been developed to support assessment of the ecological effects of alternative water management strategies in the degraded Amudarya river delta. It combines a multi-objective water allocation model with simple models of landscape dynamics and a fuzzy based evaluation of habitat suitability for riverine Tugai forests. In this paper an example application of the tool for scenario analysis to illustrate the implications of uncertainty in future water supply to the delta area is demonstrated. Scenario analysis provides an assessment of the range and magnitude of the impact of those uncertainties on the ecological situation in the delta. The potential and limitations of applying simple simulation tools in participative settings for analysis and discussion of the potential impacts of uncertainties and development of cooping strategies are discussed.