Modeling Migration Dynamics In Albania: A Hazard Function Approach (original) (raw)
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This paper uses the Albania Living Standards Measurement Survey from 2002 to examine the factors that render an individual most prone to the risk of international migration. The analysis uses novel data on whether individuals ever considered migrating abroad. The econometric models used provide good descriptions of the data and are well specified on the basis of a battery of diagnostic tests conducted. The estimated results are generally consistent with findings from the empirical literature on the willingness to migrate. The usual suspects emerge as determining factors with age, gender, employment status and education exerting predictable influences on migration risk.
Effects of Migration and Human Capital Formation in Albania
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Albania has one of the world’s highest emigration rates, relative to its population, at -3.3 migrants per 1,000 people, and a total migrant population of more than 1.25 million in 2014, according to UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs data. In 2010 Albania was granted with visa-free travel to the Schengen area and this also affected the crossing of the borders and the circular migration across the land border between Greece and Albania was for many years, one of the most significant irregular migratory flows across the EU’s external borders. Although during the last years it is observed an increase number of return migrants, Albanian citizens continued to migrate and it is observed an increase of the number during 2014, and the new trend now is requesting asylum in EU member states increased during 2014. According to EUROSTAT data show that 65,000 Albanians applied for asylum in 2015, 55,000 of them sought asylum in Germany and 99 percent of Albanian asylum requests have be...
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This paper uses the Albania Living Standards Measurement Survey from 2002 to examine the factors that render an individual most prone to the risk of international migration. The analysis uses novel data on whether individuals ever considered migrating abroad. The econometric models used provide good descriptions of the data and are well specified on the basis of a battery of diagnostic tests conducted. The estimated results are generally consistent with findings from the empirical literature on the willingness to migrate. The usual suspects emerge as determining factors with age, gender, employment status and education exerting predictable influences on migration risk. There is also a strong role for local labour market conditions and community level variables capturing, among other things, the prevalence of crime.
Since more than one-fifth of the Albanian population lives abroad at any given point in time, the present study uses information obtained from Wave 2 of the Albanian Living Standard Measurement Survey (ALSMS) from spring 2003, in order to investigate the covariates that determine whether an individual considers migrating abroad from Albania. To be specific, the main interest of this research focuses on the impact of age, gender, education, household welfare, employment status and other selected factors on considering migration. An important contribution of the present study is the investigation of the impact of previous migration experiences on the likelihood to migrate internationally from Albania in the future. Evidence from the empirical analysis suggests that those who migrated abroad during the past twelve years are more likely to migrate compared to those who didn’t migrate.
EFFECTS OF ECONOMIC CRISIS ON MIGRATION – EVIDENCE FROM ALBANIA
Based on a survey which was conducted during January 2012, this study, aims to find out the main consequences of the current economic crisis on Albanian households and the effect they have had on migration decision. The target groups of the analysis are young students, who are considering the possibility of studying abroad and students/professionals who are currently studying/working abroad or who have studied/worked abroad and now have returned to Albania. The content of the survey addresses issues related to income level, family background, employment possibilities, level of salaries, working conditions, social environment, and public policies. The conclusions of the study are that the most important effects of the economic crisis are the reduction of the rewards from work and the decline of quality of life. As the effects of the crises affect the migration decision of Albania and thus the future patterns of migration, identifying push and pull factors of migration is crucial for future macroeconomic and social stability.