Olgunlaşma Teorisi Bağlamında PKK ile Barış Sürecinin (2013-2015) Başarısızlığının Analizi (original) (raw)

An Analysis of the Failure of the Peace Process (2013-2015) with PKK through the Ripeness Theory

Turkey has experienced a protracted conflict with the PKK since 1984. Over the history of almost 30 years of the violent conflict, the first comprehensive and overt peace attempt was launched by Turkish government in 2013. It had lasted for two years with great optimism and high expectations on reaching a political settlement before it failed in July 2015. This article aims to explore the reasons of the failure of 2013-2015 negotiations and examines whether conditions were suitable for launching a 'peace process' in 2013 to resolve Turkey's conflict with the PKK. It draws on three main elements of Zartman's Ripeness theory: mutually hurting stalemate (MHS), a formula for a way out and valid spokespersons. It is argued in the article that the conflict in Turkey was not in fact ripe enough for negotiations which were initiated and conducted hastily without any formula for way out and with problematic spokespersons.

Is it ripe yet? Resolving Turkey's 30 years of conflict with the PKK

Turkish Studies, 2015

Turkey has lately been in the midst of trying to resolve its three-decade old struggle with the Partiya Karkeren Kurdistan (PKK). Elaborating on the history of this conflict, this study analyzes why previous attempts to resolve it failed and why other conflict-resolution opportunities were not taken until 2007. It devotes particular attention to the emergence and failure of the latest resolution process and analyzes prospects and challenges of a potential resolution by analyzing the context, content, and conduct of Turkey's latest peace attempt. This study finds, first, that the PKK has been open to a negotiated settlement since 1993, but the state regime rejected reconciliation and pursued unilateral military solutions until 2007, when Turkey finally recognized the military stalemate and costly deadlock. Second, it argues that what really forced Turkey to search for a resolution are-in addition to the hurting stalemate-recent national and regional power shifts, which have also destabilized the resolution process itself. Third, this study asserts that despite the ripe conditions for resolution, the context and the content of the latest process revealed crucial deficiencies that require a complete restructuring of the central government as well the need to develop greater institutionalization and social engagement for a potential conflict resolution. Finally, this study claims that the nature and characteristics of the current phase of the conflict, as they stand, indicate significant fragilities and spoiling risks due to both internal and external dynamics and actors, as recent developments have indicated in the failure of the latest resolution attempt.

Transition from a Dream to a Failure: The Beginning and the End of the Conflict Resolution in Turkey

Social Sciences Studies Journal, 2021

The concepts of “conflict resolution” and “conflict analysis” have an important place in the peace studies literature. These concepts are also important in terms of ensuring and maintaining the national security of the state. When viewed in terms of concepts, the PKK and the Kurdish Problem, which Turkey has been fighting for many years by using hard force, has been tried to be solved by using soft power, especially after the AK Party’s democratization movement. The main subject of this study is the conflict resolution process, which was tried to be implemented under the name of “Kurdish Initiative”, then “Democratic Initiative” and then “Peace and Brotherhood Project” and the developments in this process, why the conflict resolution failed and the developments that followed. In addition, the reasons for the termination or failure of the process were tried to be explained. In this direction, the methodological details that make the background of the study meaningful are included. In...

The Peace Process between Turkey and the PKK: Humanitarian or Political Struggle?

After a series of serious but uncompleted initiatives to solve the Kurdish question in Turkey, the AK Party government launched another peace process. What makes the last one crucial is that it is the first time majoritarian public support is obtained in this endeavour, and also the first time a legal framework has been put into operation for the sake of having a healthy process ending up with positive results. The discourses articulated by those who sit around negotiation tables are full of humanitarian points as though nothing is more important than the lives that might be lost during the process or later. Whereas this mostly refers to Kurds, it also applies to other ethnicities. Assuming without admitting that each party totally agreed on the humanitarian goals of the process, then why has the process not finished whilst it is already employed as a political issue in the elections when it comes to getting concrete results? From the public perspective, it might be just humanitarian but from the political party perspectives, it is not just a humanitarian issue but also a political issue which might exert a delicate impact on their existential legitimation. As human beings, nobody would want to oppose the peace process; however, this is not something people can just tackle amongst themselves without having political figures getting involved in the issue. The underlying argument of the paper therefore, is that whilst the peace process seemingly has humanitarian undercurrents but in reality, it is shrewdly a political issue which political parties seek to take advantage of. On the one hand, pro-Kurdish entities ranging from PKK to HDP and the AK Party, on the other hand along with opposition political parties (CHP and MHP) are playing a political game that is at best, called a “peace process”.

Turkey's Failed Peace Process with the Kurds: A Different Explanation

In 2013, the Turkish government and the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) entered into historic peace talks that signaled the possibility of an end to the Kurdish question in the Turkish republic. However, by July 2015, the Turkish government, led by President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and his Justice and Development Party (AKP), launched an unprecedented military offensive against the PKK. These military operations have claimed the lives of two thousand people and displaced half a million others. In this Brief, Serra Hakyemez argues that the failed peace process between the Kurds and the Turkish government is due to the discrepancy between the popular support for peace and the absence of legal support, which allowed the strained negotiations between the AKP and PKK to fall apart when the political circumstances changed. The Brief concludes with some reflections on the possibilities of restarting negotiations between the AKP and PKK in the aftermath of Turkey’s 2017 constitutional referendum.

Reaching a Balance of Resolve: The enduring conflict between Turkey and the PKK

Deterring Terrorism: A Model for Strategic Deterrence, 2018

From 19841 – the year marking the Kurdistan Workers’ Party’s (Partiya Karkeren Kurdistane, PKK) official commencement of war against Turkey – onwards, has Turkey been able to deter the PKK? “Yes,” says a retired high level general, who spent twelve years in the fight against the PKK. He continues: As of June 2016, if you look at the picture on the ground, I would argue that we have denied the PKK its initial strategic political objective and territorial goal, which was to create an independent Kurdistan by seceding territory from Turkey through the implementation of a Maoist-rural insurgency...

Inclusion in the Turkish-Kurdish Peace Process – from the “Kurdish Opening” to the “Oslo Talks”, to the Current Peace Process (2009 – 2014)

The conflict between the Turkish State the PKK (Partiya Karkeran Kurdistan; Kurdistan Workers' Party) has existed since the commencement of their armed struggle for independence in August 1984. The PKK founder and leader Abdullah Öcalan narrowed the groups demand to include only autonomy in 1999, a stance which remains until today. This case study will examine the “Democratic/Kurdish Opening” initiated by the Justice and Development Party (AKP) to increase democratic rights for Kurds in a renewed attempt to solve the conflict, whereby a secret peace process, dubbed the “Oslo Talks”, took place between 2009–2011. Moreover, it will examine the most recent attempts at a peace process, recommenced in October 2012, and ongoing at the time of writing.