Time-Series Analyses of the Impact of Sex Offender Registration and Notification Law Implementation and Subsequent Modifications on Rates of Sexual Offenses (original) (raw)
Related papers
The Influence of Sex Offender Registration and Notification Laws in the United States
Crime & Delinquency, 2007
Although federal legislation for the implementation of sex offender registration and notification systems is now a decade old, empirical studies on the efficacy of this policy are relatively nonextant. This article explores the impact of registration legislation on the incidence of forcible rapes. Using monthly count data of rapes aggregated at the state level, this analysis uses Box–Jenkins autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models to conduct 10 intervention analyses on the enforcement of Megan's Law. The results of the analyses are mixed on whether the enforcement of sex offender registration had a statistically significant effect on the number of rapes reported at the state level. Although several states showed a nonsignificant increase in the number of rapes, only three states had a significant reduction in rapes. Policy implications are discussed in terms of the efficacy of sex offender registration and whether changes in these laws should be considered.
Psychology, Public Policy, …, 2008
Despite the fact that the federal and many state governments have enacted registration and community notification laws as a means to better protect communities from sexual offending, limited empirical research has been conducted to examine the impact of such legislation on public safety. Therefore, utilizing time-series analyses, this study examined differences in sexual offense arrest rates before and after the enactment of New York State's Sex Offender Registration Act. Results provide no support for the effectiveness of registration and community notification laws in reducing sexual offending by: (a) rapists, (b) child molesters, (c) sexual recidivists, or (d) first-time sex offenders. Analyses also showed that over 95% of all sexual offense arrests were committed by first-time sex offenders, casting doubt on the ability of laws that target repeat offenders to meaningfully reduce sexual offending. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)
Criminal Justice Policy Review, 2019
Nationwide moral panic has long served as a primary explanation for sex offense laws. These laws, however, remain primarily left to state legislatures, which implies potential variation in their content over time. Variation in legislative content, to the degree that it represents implementation, not only suggests differential consequences for registrants and communities, but also it would raise questions to the sufficiency of moral panic as a sole explanation for sex offense policy change. I build upon earlier work by exploring variation in the content and timing of sex offender registration and notification (SORN) reform in all 50 states over time. After documenting variation in these laws, I present the ways in which SORN legislative content has evolved differently across states. In addition, the timing of legislative reforms differed not only across states but also within states over time. These findings have implications for existing theoretical assertions regarding criminal justice policy.
Criminal Justice and Behavior, 2010
Some sex offender registration and notification (SORN) policies subject all registered sex offenders to Internet notification. The present study examined the effects of one such broad notification policy on sex crime recidivism. Secondary data were analyzed for a sample of 6,064 male offenders convicted of at least one sex crime between 1990 and 2004. Across a mean follow-up of 8.4 years, 490 (8%) offenders had new sex crime charges and 299 (5%) offenders had new sex crime convictions. Cox's relative risks and competing risks models estimated the influence of registration status on risk of sexual recidivism while controlling for time at risk. Registration status did not predict recidivism in any model. These results cast doubt on the effectiveness of broad SORN policies in preventing repeat sexual assault. Policy implications, particularly with respect to the federal Adam Walsh Child Protection and Safety Act, which requires broad notification, are discussed.
Do Sex Offender Registration and Notification Requirements Deter Juvenile Sex Crimes
Criminal Justice and Behavior, 2010
In recent decades, sex offenders have been the targets of some of the most far-reaching and novel crime legislation in the U.S. Two key innovations have been registration and notification laws which, respectively, require that convicted sex offenders provide valid contact information to law enforcement authorities, and that information on sex offenders be made public. Using detailed information on the timing and scope of changes in state law, we study how registration and notification affect the frequency of sex offenses and the incidence of offenses across victims, and check for any change in police response to reported crimes. We find evidence that registration reduces the frequency of sex offenses by providing law enforcement with information on local sex offenders. As we predict from a simple model of criminal behavior, this decrease in crime is concentrated among "local" victims (e.g., friends, acquaintances, neighbors), while there is little evidence of a decrease in crimes against strangers. We also find evidence that community notification deters crime, but in a way unanticipated by legislators. Our results correspond with a model in which community notification deters first-time sex offenses, but increases recidivism by registered offenders due to a change in the relative utility of legal and illegal behavior. This finding is consistent with work by criminologists suggesting that notification may increase recidivism by imposing social and financial costs on registered sex offenders and making non-criminal activity relatively less attractive. We regard this latter finding as potentially important, given that the purpose of community notification is to reduce recidivism.
Sociology Compass, 2010
Since the mid-1990s legislators have enacted a series of laws regulating convicted sex offenders who have returned to communities. Policymakers crafted these laws to appease a worried public, but they were based on assumptions about sex offenders’ behaviors that were not well supported by research evidence. In this paper we examine the social context within which these laws were passed and the assumptions behind the three most common sex offender laws – mandatory registration, community notification, and residence restrictions. Next we review the research that has been conducted so far to evaluate the effectiveness of these laws and their unintended consequences. We conclude with a discussion of the lessons learned from these sex offender laws for both policymaking and future research.
Criminal Justice Policy Review, 2015
Variation in Sex Offender Registration and Community Notification (SORCN) policies may suggest differences in public fears of sexual crimes as well as differences in state-level policy-making. This study explored the standardization of SORCN policies across a sample of five midwestern states. A thematic content analysis showed that states varied in how registrants were defined, what information was selected for public notification, and how sex offender laws are maintained. A typology of revisions emerged, which may inform our understanding about policy-making. Ultimately, existing research provides limited explanations for these results, serving as an impetus for future research on context and process of criminal justice policy change.
Effects of South Carolina’s Sex Offender Registration and Notification Policy on Adult Recidivism
Criminal Justice Policy Review, 2010
Some sex offender registration and notification (SORN) policies subject all registered sex offenders to Internet notification. The present study examined the effects of one such broad notification policy on sex crime recidivism. Secondary data were analyzed for a sample of 6,064 male offenders convicted of at least one sex crime between 1990 and 2004. Across a mean follow-up of 8.4 years, 490 (8%) offenders had new sex crime charges and 299 (5%) offenders had new sex crime convictions. Cox's relative risks and competing risks models estimated the influence of registration status on risk of sexual recidivism while controlling for time at risk. Registration status did not predict recidivism in any model. These results cast doubt on the effectiveness of broad SORN policies in preventing repeat sexual assault. Policy implications, particularly with respect to the federal Adam Walsh Child Protection and Safety Act, which requires broad notification, are discussed.
The Effects of Sex Offender Registration and Notification on Judicial Decisions
Criminal Justice Review, 2010
This study examined whether South Carolina's sex offender registration and notification (SORN) policy was associated with changes in judicial decision making concerning adult sex crime cases. Outcomes pertained to reduced charges (e.g., sex to nonsex crimes) and final case dispositions. Statewide crime data from 1990 to 2004 corresponded with three time periods of interest the 5 years immediately preceding enactment of SORN (Year Group I;, the first 4 years of SORN implementation (Year Group 2;, and the subsequent 6 years of SORN implementation, which included Internet notification (Year Group 3;. Univariate and generalized estimating equations methods were used to model patterns of charging and disposition decisions with respect to year groups. Results indicated that defendants were more likely to have charges reduced from sex to nonsex crimes over time, with a 9% predicted probability of reduced charges in Year Group I, a 15% predicted probability in Year Group 2 (corresponding with initial implementation of SORN), and a 19% predicted probability in Year Group 3 (corresponding with Internet notification). Results also indicated that the probability of a guilty disposition changed at each year group, with a predicted probability in Year Group I of 55%, increasing to 65% in Year Group 2, and then declining to 60% in Year Group 3. This final decline was more pronounced when pleaded cases were removed from analyses. South Carolina's SORN policy shares several characteristics with the federal Adam Walsh Act (AWA). Thus, both state and national policy implications of these findings are discussed.
2009
The Washington State Institute for Public Policy was asked by the Sex Offender Policy Board to evaluate the effectiveness of sex offender registration and community notification laws on reducing crime. We conducted a systematic review of all research evidence throughout the United States and located nine rigorous evaluations. 1 The 2008 Legislature created the Sex Offender Policy Board with the intent that experts and practitioners would coordinate statewide sex offender management and assess the performance of the system's components (RCW 9.94A.8671).