Predicting Probation Outcomes: Factors Associated with Probation Rearrest, Revocations, and Technical Violations during Supervision (original) (raw)
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This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 3.0 License. • Between 1993 and 2011, an increasing proportion of felony probationers in Illinois were accounted for by females, whites, Hispanics, and older probationers. • The majority of felons discharged from probation were successfully terminated from supervision throughout the period examined. The proportion of felons discharged from probation as a result of a revocation of probation for either a technical violation or a new offense remained stable, and relatively low (at or below 10 percent statewide), throughout the time period examined. • Success on probation can mean less reliance on prison, but failure on probation can result in commitment to the Illinois Department of Corrections. Individuals who had their probation revoked or were reconvicted of a new crime while on probation accounted for roughly 15 percent of all those sentenced to prison, a proportion that remained relatively stable through the time period examined.
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Probationers make up the largest share of the correctional population in the US, with recent data indicating that one out of 72 American adults is on probation. There is limited research on probation outcomes, particularly misdemeanor probation, despite its potential disruptive life impacts for relatively minor offenses. This study asked what specific demographic and probation characteristics are associated with successful misdemeanor probation completion, using data from one county in a southern state. Data from 2016-2018 were analyzed for 6600 cases. Of these, 70.8% had successful case outcomes. Analyses showed that successful outcomes were associated with being female, Hispanic, having more than high school education, no unpaid fines, and being older. Probationers were less likely to be successful if Black, if not their first offense, and if convicted for property crimes. Implications for practice, policy, and research are discussed, as is the importance of local data analysis for tailored understanding of probation at a community level.
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The prevalence of drug use among the probationers, and the entire offender population, has been well documented. Numerous drug treatment modalities have been shown to reduce recidivism among this population; however, analyses of programmatic success are often based on offenders who complete treatment. Less is known about individuals who fail to complete treatment. The goal of the current study is to consider the interaction of drug use, drug treatment provision, and treatment completion on recidivism using data from the 2000 Illinois Probation Outcome Study. Findings from a series of proportional hazard models indicate that probationers who failed to complete treatment were more likely to be rearrested in the four years following discharge from probation, even when compared to individuals who needed treatment but did not enroll. Moreover, probationers who failed to complete treatment had more serious criminal histories and fewer ties to society. The research has important implications for the measurement of treatment provision in studies of recidivism, in specific, and more generally for the need to engage and retain probationers in drug treatment.
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The prevalence of drug use among probationers, and the entire offender population, has been well documented. Numerous drug treatment modalities have been shown to reduce recidivism among this population; however, analyses of programmatic success are often based on a subset of offenders who complete treatment. Less is known about individuals who fail to complete treatment. The goal of the current study is to consider the interaction of drug use, drug treatment provision, and treatment completion on recidivism using data from the 2000 Illinois Probation Outcome Study. Findings from a series of proportional hazard models indicate that probationers who failed to complete treatment were more likely to be rearrested in the four years following discharge from probation, even when compared to individuals who needed treatment but did not enroll. Moreover, probationers who failed to complete treatment had more serious criminal histories and fewer ties to society. The research has important implications for the measurement of treatment provision in studies of recidivism, in specific, and more generally for the need to engage and retain probationers in drug treatment.
The Impact of Formal and Informal Social Controls on the Criminal Activities of Probationers
Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency, 2002
The monthly self-reported criminal activities, risk behaviors, and local life circumstances of offenders who began sentences of probation in northern Virginia were examined during the year prior to arrest, between arrest and probation, and during the first eight months of probation. The criminal activities and risk behaviors of the offenders declined dramatically after arrest and continued at this lower level throughout the probation period studied. When these offenders participated in highrisk behaviors such as carrying a gun, using drugs, and heavy use of alcohol, they committed more crimes; conversely, when they lived with spouses or were employed, they committed fewer crimes. There was no change in local life circumstances from the prearrest, arrest, and probation periods. The decline in criminal activities after arrest and during probation did not appear to be related to changes in informal social controls as measured by local life circumstances. The results were interpreted as consistent with a possible a deterrent effect. Approximately 58 percent of the 5.3 million adults under some type of correctional supervision during 1995 were serving terms of probation (Maguire and Pastore 1997). Seventy percent of the adults under correctional control are in their communities on state or federal probation or parole. Probationers account for a large proportion of the criminal activities in large, urban areas, and many of them are rearrested within three years of starting probation. Most research investigating the criminal activities of probationers has We wish to thank Claire Souryal, Julie Horney, and Scott Decker for their valuable input to this project. The probation and parole departments; District Chiefs Leslie Bubenhofer, Linda Eichenbaum, and Peter Stephenson; as well as the office staff provided a great deal of ongoing assistance for which we are very appreciative. And finally, we would like to thank all the probationers who participated in this study.
Examining Risk Factors for Recidivism and Disparities in Treatment among Female Probationers
Journal of Sociology and Social Work, 2014
This paper discusses racial differences in risk factors and behavioral conditions among 200 women placed on probation between 2011 and 2013. Emphasis is placed on the factors that place these women at a greater risk of recidivism including prior drug abuse, socioeconomic status (employment), and previous felony convictions. Disparities in treatment measures among women on probation, particularly women of color, such as alcohol/drug treatment and mental health counseling treatment are also discussed.
Inequality on Probation: An Examination of Differential Probation Outcomes
The effect of race, gender, offense type, location, assessment scores, as well as key interaction terms based on race were examined on multiple probation outcomes. Extending the racial equity research to offenders supervised within the community, results suggest that African American males fare worse on multiple supervision outcomes. In addition, the research found that women were less likely to receive alternative probation outcomes. Suggestions are put forth for the continuance of research on racial inequities for offenders sentenced to a term of community supervision. The study ends with a call for increased attention to various inequality issues confronting criminal justice. Previous examinations of racial parity within the corrections system have primarily focused on institutional populations. Despite the fact that 60% of offenders under the purview of the American criminal justice system are supervised by the probation system (Maruschak & Parks, 2012), inquiries into the racial disparity within probation remain limited. For the most part this research has examined the impact of various individual and interactional level predictors on dichotomously measured outcomes of probation success (for a detailed review, see Rembert, Hender-son, & Pirtle, 2014). Though the extant literature has made many advances in the way of equitable levels of supervision and treatment, dichotomously operationaliz-ing all probation failures and successes has not allowed for a more exact understanding of the possible outcome options. The results of the previous examinations of those factors that predict probation outcomes have likely been affected by their inconsistent use of different facilities, administrative styles, and jurisdictional definitions. These studies have also interchangeably used self-reported behavior or official criminal histories. Researchers have tended to focus on specific types of probation outcomes, such as revocation or the commission of a new felony offense (e.g., Freiburger & Hilinski, 2013).
Predicting the effect of substance abuse treatment on probationer recidivism
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Support for the effectiveness of substance abuse treatment to reduce substance use and recidivism among populations supervised by the criminal justice system continues to grow in substance abuse and criminal justice literature. Recent studies show that a variety of programs including the Breaking the Cycle program and drug courts appear to result in improved outcomes for offenders. In this paper, we examine the effect of non-residential substance abuse treatment on arrest. Our data are for almost 134,000 ‘drug-involved’ individuals sentenced to probation in Florida between July 1995 and June 2000. Nearly 52,000 of these individuals received non-residential substance abuse treatment, while 81,797 did not. Our approach is a methodologically simple one that entails stratifying our data by treatment status, estimating logit and negative binomial models of arrest for each of the two datasets, and then applying each model to both datasets. This approach, which requires that both groups include subjects for whom treatment is appropriate, is analogous to using regression models to predict outcomes for new values of independent variables. For each observation in the dataset, we use the models to predict the expected outcomes for each individual under two scenarios – receiving non-residential treatment and receiving no treatment. Summing over these individual estimates provides an estimate of the total numbers of arrests that would be expected under different levels of population exposure to treatment. Results suggest that non-residential treatment reduced both the expected numbers of individuals who recidivated (i.e., were arrested) and the expected total numbers of arrests in the 12 and 24 months following placement on supervision.
The Impact of Probation on the Criminal Activities of Offenders
Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency, 1999
This study examines the impact of probation on the criminal activities of offenders using self-report and official records. In comparison to the year before arrest, the number of offenders self-reporting criminal activity declined, as did the rate of offending among those who continued to offend. Investigations of the different crime types revealed that the crime reduction effect of probation was mainly a result of its effect on property and dealing crimes. Probation was not significantly associated with reductions in person or forgery/fraud offenses. A Linear Structural Relationships (LISREL) analysis of the agent-response model investigated the impact of probation on self-reported criminal activities and probation violations during the first 6 months of probation. The analysis indicated that probation violations were associated with criminal activity. However, increases in the intrusiveness of conditions, in the agent's knowledge of misbehavior, or in how the agent responded to misbehavior were not associated with either criminal activity or violations of conditions.