Application of decision analysis to evaluate recovery actions for threatened Snake River spring and summer chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) (original) (raw)
Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, 2001
We used models and decision analysis to incorporate uncertainties into evaluations of two recovery actions for Snake River fall chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha): (i) maximize transportation and (ii) natural river drawdown of four lower Snake River dams. In the retrospective analysis, we compared alternative stock-recruit models and selected one that was consistent with historical spawner-recruit data and allowed us to implement alternative hypotheses about hydrosystem, hatchery, harvest, and environmental effects. In the prospective analysis, we used this model and posterior distributions of its parameters in a decision analysis framework to compare projected escapements for the two actions over a range of alternative hypotheses. We found that drawdown was most risk averse, producing larger long-term escapements than maximizing transportation under most hypotheses and model assumptions. Maximizing transportation and drawdown produced similar escapements only if we assumed high or increasing estuary and ocean survival rates of transported fish coupled with either severe reductions in harvest rates or insensitivity of upstream survival rates to dam construction and removal. Although there was relatively little information available for Snake River fall chinook (particularly about estuary and ocean survival rates of transported smolts), decision analysis was a useful technique for organizing data, assessing actions over a range of uncertainties, and identifying research priorities. Résumé : Des modèles et une analyse décisionnelle nous ont permis d'incorporer les incertitudes dans l'évaluation de deux stratégies de récupération des populations automnales des Saumons quinnat (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) de la rivière Snake, soit de maximiser le transport des saumoneaux, soit de faire baisser les eaux de la rivière à leur niveau naturel à quatre barrages du bassin inférieur. Dans une analyse rétrospective, nous avons comparé divers modèles de stock-recrutement de rechange et en avons choisi un qui correspondait aux données historiques sur les géniteurs et les recrues et qui nous permettait d'avancer diverses hypothèses sur les effets de l'hydrosystème, de la pisciculture, de la récolte et de l'environnement. Dans notre analyse prospective, ce modèle et les distributions a posteriori de ses paramètres nous ont permis de comparer, dans le cadre d'une analyse décisionnelle, les échappées prédites pour chacune des stratégies dans une gamme d'hypothèses de rechange. Nous avons trouvé que la baisse du niveau était la stratégie qui posait le moins de risques; elle produisait aussi à long terme des échappées plus fortes que l'augmentation du transport sous la plupart des hypothèses et des présuppositions du modèle. La maximisation du transport et la baisse du niveau donnaient des échappées semblables seulement si on présupposait que les poissons transportés avaient une survie élevée ou plus grande dans l'estuaire et l'océan; il fallait aussi qu'il y ait une réduction importante des taux de récolte ou alors que les taux de survie en amont ne soient pas affectés par la construction ou le retrait des barrages. Bien qu'il y ait eu relativement peu de renseignements disponibles sur la population automnale des Saumons quinnat de la rivière Snake (en particulier sur les taux de survie en estuaire et en océan des saumoneaux transportés), l'analyse décisionnelle s'est avérée utile pour organiser les données, évaluer les stratégies dans une gamme d'incertitudes et identifier les priorités de recherche.
Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, 2001
We used models and decision analysis to incorporate uncertainties into evaluations of two recovery actions for Snake River fall chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha): (i) maximize transportation and (ii) natural river drawdown of four lower Snake River dams. In the retrospective analysis, we compared alternative stock-recruit models and selected one that was consistent with historical spawner-recruit data and allowed us to implement alternative hypotheses about hydrosystem, hatchery, harvest, and environmental effects. In the prospective analysis, we used this model and posterior distributions of its parameters in a decision analysis framework to compare projected escapements for the two actions over a range of alternative hypotheses. We found that drawdown was most risk averse, producing larger long-term escapements than maximizing transportation under most hypotheses and model assumptions. Maximizing transportation and drawdown produced similar escapements only if we assumed high or increasing estuary and ocean survival rates of transported fish coupled with either severe reductions in harvest rates or insensitivity of upstream survival rates to dam construction and removal. Although there was relatively little information available for Snake River fall chinook (particularly about estuary and ocean survival rates of transported smolts), decision analysis was a useful technique for organizing data, assessing actions over a range of uncertainties, and identifying research priorities.
North American Journal of Fisheries Management, 2005
We collected adult and juvenile spawner recruit data on wild summer steelhead Oncorhynchus mykiss for the Snake River and estimated parameters for fisheries management by partitioning the data into predam and postdam periods and fitting the Ricker and Beverton-Holt models to those time series. The results showed a decline in productivity irrespective of the model chosen and the way in which the pre-and postdam periods were defined. However, the data were noisy and the confidence bounds on parameter estimates were fairly large. To reconcile the different management goals derived from the different data sources (adult or juvenile data) or model choice (Ricker or Beverton-Holt), we used simulation techniques and Bayesian algorithms. The combined approach suggests a recovery management goal (i.e., spawning stock associated with the maximum sustainable yield) of 60,000 steelhead above Lower Granite Dam. At current smolt-to-adult survival rates, the data indicate optimal escapement of between 20,000 and 27,000 adults. We note that Snake River steelhead stocks cannot be managed for recovery escapement levels given current estimates of smolt-to-adult survival rates, and we discuss alternatives for present-day management and rebuilding over time.
Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, 1999
The effects of increasing hydropower development and operation appear extremely important in the decline and near extripation of stream-type chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) stocks of the upper Columbia and Snake rivers. We evaluated temporal and spatial patterns of productivity and survival rates (for index stocks from the Snake, upper Columbia, and lower Columbia regions) to determine the cause of dramatic declines of the upriver stocks. This evaluation tested hypotheses about nonstationarity (changes over time in average productivity) in the Ricker recruitment function caused by changes in the physical environment. Individual stocks showed recent declines in indicators of productivity and survival rate; however, the comparisons indicate that upriver stocks showed greater declines coincident with the development and operation of the hydropower system. Evidence from the aggregate run indicates that declines over the last 50 years were quite abrupt and corresponded to construction and completion of the hydropower system. Résumé : L'accroissement du développement et de l'exploitation de l'hydro-électricité semble jouer un rôle très important dans le déclin et la disparition presque complète des stocks de quinnat (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) de type dulcicole dans le cours supérieur du Columbia et la Snake. Nous avons évalué les profils temporels et spatiaux de la productivité et du taux de survie (pour des stocks indicateurs des régions de la Snake, du haut Columbia et du bas Columbia) pour déterminer la cause des déclins marqués des stocks d'amont. Pour cette évaluation, on a testé des hypothèses concernant la non-stationnarité (changements temporels dans la productivité moyenne) dans la fonction de recrutement de Ricker causée par les changements dans le milieu physique. Les stocks individuels ont connu des déclins récents selon les indicateurs de la productivité et du taux de survie, mais les comparaisons montrent que les stocks d'amont ont connu des déclins plus importants par suite du développement et de l'exploitation du réseau hydroélectrique. Les données sur la remonte totale montrent que les déclins des 50 dernières années ont été assez abrupts et ont suivi la construction et la finalisation du réseau hydro-électrique. [Traduit par la Rédaction] Schaller et al. 1045
… Journal of Fisheries …, 2006
Current efforts to conserve Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) rely on a variety of information sources, including empirical observations, expert opinion, and models. Here we outline a framework for incorporating detailed information on density-dependent population growth, habitat attributes, hatchery operations, and harvest management into conservation planning in a time-varying, spatially explicit manner. We rely on a multistage Beverton-Holt model to describe the production of salmon from one life stage to the next. We use information from the literature to construct relationships between the physical environment and the necessary productivity and capacity parameters for the model. As an example of how policy makers can use the model in recovery planning, we applied the model to a threatened population of Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) in the Snohomish River basin in Puget Sound, Washington, USA. By incorporating additional data on hatchery operations and harvest management for Snohomish River basin stocks, we show how proposed actions to improve physical habitat throughout the basin translate into projected improvements in four important population attributes: abundance, productivity, spatial structure, and life-history diversity. We also describe how to adapt the model to a variety of other management applications.
Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, 2006
High spawning flows from Hugh Keenleyside Dam (HKD) on the Columbia River results in dewatering of eggs in mountain whitefish (Prosopium williamsoni) populations, but the ultimate effect on adult abundance depends on the shape of the egg-to-adult recruitment curve. Our decision analysis assessed the benefits of alternative flow experiments while accounting for uncertainties in this relationship and in flows in the Columbia and Kootenay rivers. The value of experimenting depended on the true recruitment relationship, how we quantified experimental benefits, and experimental design. With current uncertainty, the optimal HKD spawning flow (out of 11 alternative flows) was 1699.2 m 3 •s-1. Spawning flows below 1699.2 m 3 •s-1 did not improve egg survival because lower flows rendered highquality spawning habitat unavailable and increased scour mortality. Two experimental designs, both with higher precision monitoring, had a high probability of detecting the true recruitment curve at reasonable cost. Information from these experiments suggested an optimal spawning flow of 1699.2 m 3 •s-1 if adult abundance were sensitive to egg mortality or 1982.4 m 3 •s-1 if the population were insensitive. Résumé : Les forts débits du barrage Hugh Keenleyside (HKD) sur le Columbia pendant la période de fraye des populations du ménomini de montagne (Prosopium williamsoni) ont comme conséquence de laisser les oeufs à découvert; mais l'effet final sur l'abondance des adultes dépend de la forme de la courbe de recrutement de l'oeuf à l'adulte. Notre analyse décisionnelle évalue les bénéfices d'expériences de débit de rechange, tout en tenant compte des incertitudes de cette relation et des débits du Columbia et de la Kootenay. La valeur des expériences dépend de la véritable relation de recrutement, de la manière dont les bénéfices expérimentaux sont comptabilisés et du plan d'expérience. Compte tenu de l'incertitude actuelle, le débit optimal de HKD durant la fraye (de 11 débits de rechange examinés) est de 1699,2 m 3 •s-1. Les flux inférieurs à 1699,2 m 3 •s-1 n'améliorent pas la survie des oeufs parce les débits plus bas rendent inaccessibles des habitats de fraye de haute qualité et augmentent la mortalité due à l'affouillement. Deux plans d'expérience, tous deux avec une précision supérieure de surveillance, ont une probabilité de détecter la véritable courbe de recrutement à un coût raisonnable. Les informations fournies par ces expériences indiquent un débit optimal pendant la fraye de 1699,2 m 3 •s-1 si l'abondance des adultes est sensible à la mortalité des oeufs et de 1982,4 m 3 •s-1 si la populatioest pas sensible à cette mortalité. [Traduit par la Rédaction] Alexander et al. 1156
Snake River Basin Differential Delayed Mortality Synthesis APPENDIX
We have reviewed literature related to D, independent of a particular study's methodology or study objectives for Snake River stocks of spring/summer Chinook salmon, subyearling and yearling fall Chinook salmon, and steelhead. Sources include papers published in peer-reviewed journals, technical memos, annual reports, and reviews. The database is presented in this appendix as a list of references with hyperlinks to abstracts and executive summaries contained within this document. A.2 Abstract Anderson CD, DD Roby, and K Collis. 2004. Foraging patterns of male and female Double-crested Cormorants nesting in the Columbia River estuary. Canadian Journal of Zoology-Revue Canadienne De Zoologie 82(4):541-554. Abstract Anderson JJ. 2000. "A vitality-based model relating stressors and environmental properties to organism survival." Ecological Monographs 70:445-470. Abstract Anderson JJ, MC Gildea, DW Williams, and T Li. 2008. "Linking growth, survival, and heterogeneity through vitality." American Naturalist 171:E20-E43. Abstract Anderson JJ, RA Hinrichsen, C Van Holmes, and KD Ham. 2005. Historical Analysis of PIT Tag Data for . 2008. "Big dams and salmon evolution: Changes in thermal regimes and their potential evolutionary consequences." Evolutionary Applications 1(2):286-299. Abstract Anglea SM, DR Geist, RS Brown, KA Deters, and RD McDonald. Abstract Antolos M, DD Roby, and K Collis. 2004. "Breeding ecology of Caspian terns at colonies on the Columbia plateau." Northwest Science 78(4):303-312. Abstract A.9 Abstract Arkoosh MR, S Strickland, A Van Gaest, GM Ylitalo, L Johnson, GK Yanagid, TK Collier, and JP Dietrich. In press. "Trends in Organic Pollutants and Lipids in Juvenile Snake River Spring Chinook Salmon with Different Outmigrating Histories through the Lower Snake and Middle Columbia Rivers." Science of the Total Environment. Abstract Badil S, DG Elliott, T Kurobe, K Clemens, M Blair, and MK Purcell. 2011. "Comparative evaluation of molecular diagnostic tests for Nucleospora salmonis and prevalence in migrating juvenile salmonids from the Snake River, USA." Journal of Aquatic Animal Health 23:19-29. Abstract Bellgraph BJ, GA McMichael, RP Mueller, and JL Monroe. 2010. "Behavioural response of juvenile Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) during a sudden temperature increase and implications for survival." Journal of Thermal Biology 35(1):6-10. Abstract Biro PA, AE Morton, JR Post, and EA Parkinson. 2004. "Over-winter lipid depletion and mortality of age-0 rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss)." Canadian Journal of Fisheries & Aquatic Sciences 61(8):1513-1519. Abstract Boggs CT, ML Keefer, CA Peery, TC Bjornn, and LC Stuehrenberg. 2004. "Fallback, Reascension, and Adjusted Fishway Escapement Estimates for Adult Chinook Salmon and Steelhead at Columbia and Snake River Dams." of the American Fisheries Society 133(4):932-949. Abstract Bottom DL, CA Simenstad, J Burke, AM Baptista, DA Jay, KK Jones, E Casillas, and MH Schiewe. 2005. "Salmon at river's end: The role of the estuary in the decline and recovery of Columbia River salmon." U.Abstract Buchanan RA, JR Skalski, RL Townsend and KH Ham. 2011. The Effect . 2009. "Maximum tag to body size ratios for an endangered coho salmon (O-kisutch) stock based on physiology and performance." Environmental Biology of Fishes 84(1):129-140. Abstract Clemens BJ, SP Clements, MD Karnowski, DB Jepsen, AI Gitelman, and CB Schreck. 2009. "Effects of Transportation and Other Factors on Survival Estimates of Juvenile Salmonids in the Unimpounded Lower Columbia River." Transactions of the American Fisheries Society 138(1):169-188. Abstract Collier TK, MR Arkoosh, LL Johnson, TR Ginn, and FJ Loge. 2006. "The influence of chemical contaminants on disease ecology in Columbia River Chinook salmon." Marine Environmental Research 62:S370-S370. Abstract Collis K, DD Roby, DP Craig, S Adamany, JY Adkins, and DE Lyons. 2002. "Colony Size and Diet Composition of Piscivorous Waterbirds on the Lower Columbia River: Implications for Losses of Juvenile Salmonids to Avian Predation." Transactions of the American Fisheries Society 131(3):537-550. Abstract Collis K, DD Roby, DP Craig, BA Ryan, and RD Ledgerwood. 2001. "Colonial Waterbird Predation on Juvenile Salmonids Tagged With Passive Integrated Transponders in the Columbia River Estuary: Vulnerability of Different Salmonid Species, Stocks, and Rearing Types." Transactions of the American Fisheries Society 130(3):385-396. Abstract A.12 Congleton J, T Wagner, J Evavold, and B Sun. 2003. Abstract Congleton JL, J Evavold, D Jones, M Santora, B Sun, and T Wagner. 2005. Evaluation of Physiological Condition Abstract Connor WP, JG Sneva, KF Tiffan, RK Steinhorst, and D Ross. 2005. "Two Alternative Juvenile Life History Types for Fall Chinook Salmon in the Snake River Basin." Transactions of the American Fisheries Society 134(2):291-304. Abstract Crozier LG, AP Hendry, PW Lawson, TP Quinn, NJ Mantua, J Battin, RG Shaw, and RB Huey. 2008. "Potential responses to climate change in organisms with complex life histories: Evolution and plasticity in Pacific salmon." Evolutionary Applications 1(2):252-270. Abstract Crozier L and RW Zabel. 2006. "Climate impacts at multiple scales: evidence for differential population responses in juvenile Chinook salmon." Journal of Animal Ecology 75(5):1100-1109. Abstract Crozier LG, RW Zabel, EE Hockersmith, and S Achord. 2010. "Interacting effects of density and temperature on body size in multiple populations of Chinook salmon." Journal of Animal Ecology 79(2):342-349. Abstract Dauble DD and RP Mueller. 2000. "Difficulties in Estimating Survival for Adult Chinook Salmon in the Columbia and Snake Rivers." Fisheries 25(8):24-34. Abstract DeHart M. 2007. "Associations between upstream migration success and smolt outmigration history for returning adult Snake River-origin hatchery and wild summer steelhead." Memorandum from M. DeHart, Fish Passage Center, Portland, Oregon to Scott Marshall, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, dated January 18, 2007. (No Abstract) DeHart M. 2010. "Review of the NOAA Transportation analyses and potential effects of reducing spill for fish passage in May and beginning the transportation program earlier inthe spring and supporting analyses." Memorandum from M. DeHart, Fish Passage Center, Portland, Oregon to the Fish Passage Advisory Committee, R. Boyce, Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife, Clackamas, Oregon and Tom Lorz, Columbia River Inter-Tribal Fish Commission, Portland, Oregon, dated February 9, 2010. (No Abstract) Deriso RB, DR Marmorek, and IJ Parnell. 2001. "Retrospective patterns of differential mortality and common year-effects experienced by spring and summer chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) of the Columbia River." Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 58(12):2419-2430. Abstract A.14 De Robertis A, CA Morgan, RA Schabetsberger, RW Zabel, RD Brodeur, RL Emmett, CM Knight, GK Krutzikowsky, and E Casillas. 2005. "Columbia River plume fronts. II. Distribution, abundance, and feeding ecology of juvenile salmon." Marine Ecology-Progress Series 299:33-44. Abstract Abstract Elliott DG, RJ Pascho, and AN Palmisano. 1995. "Brood stock segregation for the control of brood stock segregation for the control of bacterial kidney disease can affect mortality of progeny Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) in seawater." Aquaculture 132:133-144. Abstract Emmett RL and GK Krutzikowsky. 2008. "Nocturnal Feeding of Pacific Hake and Jack Mackerel Off the Mouth of the Columbia River, 1998-2004: Implications for Juvenile Salmon Predation." Transactions of the American Fisheries Society 137(3):657-676. Abstract Emmett RL, GK Krutzikowsky, and P Bentley. 2006. "Abundance and distribution of pelagic piscivorous fishes in the Columbia River plume during spring/early summer 1998-2003: Relationship to oceanographic conditions, forage fishes, and juvenile salmonids." Progress in Oceanography 68:1-26. Abstract Emmett RL and DB Sampson. 2007. "The relationships between predatory fish, forage fishes, and juvenile salmonid marine survival off the Columbia River: A simple trophic model analysis." California Cooperative Oceanic Fisheries Investigations Reports 48:92-105. Abstract Enstipp MR, D Gremillet D, and DR Jones. 2007. "Investigating the functional link between prey abundance and seabird predatory performance." Marine Ecology-Progress Series 331:267-279. Abstract Ferguson JW, RF Absolon, TJ Carlson, and BP Sandford. 2006. "Evidence of Delayed Mortality on Juvenile Pacific Salmon Passing Through Turbines at Columbia River Dams." Transactions of the American Fisheries Society 135(1):139-150. Abstract A.16 Ferguson JW, GM Matthews, RL McComas, RF Absolon, DA Brege, MH Gessel, and LG Gilbreath. Abstract Finstad AG, O Ugedal, T Forseth, and TF Naesje. 2004. "Energy-related juvenile winter mortality in a northern population of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar)." Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 61(12):2358-2368. Abstract Fryer DS. 2008. "Swimming Performance of Hatchery-Reared Yearling Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha Before and After Passage Through the Snake-Columbia River Hydropower System." Thesis, University of Idaho, Moscow, Idaho. Abstract Gargett AE. 1997. "The optimal stability 'window': a mechanism underlying decadal fluctuations in North Pacific salmon stocks?" Fisheries Oceanography 6(2):109-117. Abstract Giorgi A, M Miller, and J Stevenson. 2002. Mainstem Passage Strategies In the Columbia River System: Transportation, Spill, and Flow Augmentation. Prepared by BioAnalysts, Inc., Redmond, Washington, for the Northwest Power Planning Council, Portland, Oregon. Executive Summary Ginn TR and FJ Loge. 2007. "Dose-structured population dynamics." Mathematical Biosciences 208:325-343. Abstract Goniea TM, ML Keefer, TC Bjornn, CA Peery, DH Bennett, and LC Stuehrenberg. 2006. "Behavioral Thermoregulation and Slowed Migration by Adult Fall Chinook Salmon in...