Expectations, Rivalries, and Civil War Duration (original) (raw)

Abstract

This paper argues that the existence of an interstate rival can prolong conflict even when actual aid has not been granted. The mere expectation of assistance from a rival, whether in the form of military intervention or provision of funds, can deter rebels from seeking settlement and motivate fighting at least for some time until resources are depleted. We estimate conditions under which interstate rivals are most likely to intervene in civil wars. We then argue that conditions conducive to rival intervention serve as a base upon which rebels form their expectations of forthcoming aid. We use predicted probabilities from the probit and the multinomial logit model to calculate expectations of rival intervention. Finally, using duration analysis we show that expectations of rival intervention can substantially prolong civil wars especially in a transparent society.

Loading...

Loading Preview

Sorry, preview is currently unavailable. You can download the paper by clicking the button above.

References (66)

  1. Bach-Lindsay, Dylan and Andrew J. Enterline (2000). "Killing Time: The World Politics of Civil War Duration, 1820-1992." International Studies Quarterly, Vol. 44, No. 4, pp. 615-642.
  2. Box-Steffensmeier, Janet M. and Bradford S. Jones (2003). Timing and Political Change: Event History Modeling in Political Science, Ann Arbor: University of Michigan.
  3. Brown, Michael (1996). "The Causes and Regional Dimensions of Internal Con- flict," In Michael Brown, ed., The International Dimensions of Internal Conflict, Cambridge, MA: the MIT Press, pp. 579-580.
  4. CIA World Fact Book, http:/ /www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/, February 2004.
  5. Collier, Paul and Anke Hoeffler (2000). "Greed and Grievance in Civil War," Type- script. World Bank.
  6. Collier, Paul, Anke Hoeffler, and Mans Söderbom (2001). "On the Duration of Civil War," World Bank Paper.
  7. D'Este, Carlo. (2004). "Rising '44': Betraying Warsaw." The New York Times, July 24. Diehl, Paul and Gary Goertz (2000). War and Peace in International Rivalry, Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.
  8. Elbadawi, Ibrahim and Nicholas Sambanis (2000). "External Interventions and the Duration of Civil Wars," World Bank Paper.
  9. Fearon, James D. (2002). "Why Do Some Civil Wars Last So Much Longer Than Others?" Working Paper.
  10. Kaufmann, Chaim (1996). "Possible and Impossible Solutions to Ethnic Civil Wars." International Security, Vol. 20, pp. 136-175.
  11. Leblang, David (2002). "Political Uncertainty and Speculative Attacks," In Steve Chan and James Scarritt, eds., Coping with Globalization: Cross-National Patterns in Domestic Governance and Policy Performance, London: Frank Cass.
  12. Licklider, Roy (1993). "What Have We Learned and Where Do We Go From Here?". In Roy Licklider, ed., Stopping the Killing: How Civil Wars End, New York: New York University Press.
  13. Mason, T. David, P. Weingarten Joseph, and Patrick J. Fett (1999). "Win, Lose, or Draw: Predicting the Outcome of Civil Wars." Political Research Quarterly, Vol. 52, No. 2, pp. 239-268.
  14. Pearson, Frederick S. (1974). "Foreign Military Intervention and Domestic Dis- putes." International Studies Quarterly, Vol. 18, No. 3, pp. 259-290.
  15. Pruier, Gérard (1995). The Rwanda Crisis: History of a Genocide, London: C. Hurst and Company.
  16. Regan, Patrick M. (1988). "Choosing to Intervene: Outside Interventions in Internal Conflict." The Journal of Politics, Vol. 6, No. 3, pp. 754-779.
  17. Regan, Patrick M. (2000). Civil Wars and Foreign Powers: Outside Intervention in Intr- astate Conflict, Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.
  18. Regan, Patrick M. (2002). "Third-Party Interventions and the Duration of Intrastate Conflicts." Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 46, No. 1, pp. 55-73.
  19. Regan, Patrick M. and Rodwan Abouharb (2002). "Interventions in Civil Conflicts: Tools of Conflict Management or Simply Another Participant?"World Affairs.
  20. Rasler, Karen (1983). "Internationalized Civil War: A Dynamic Analysis of the Syrian Intervention in Lebanon." Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 27, No. 3, September, pp. 421-456.
  21. Roeder, Philip G. Ethnolinguistic Fractionalization (ELF) Indices, 1961 and 1985 http://weber.ucsd.edu\\\~proeder\\elf.htm, January 10, 2004.
  22. Ross, Michael (2003). "Oil, Drugs, and Diamonds: How Do Natural Resources Vary in Their Impact of Civil War." In Karen Ballentine and Jake Sherman, eds., Beyond Greed and Grievances: the Political Economy of Armed Conflict.
  23. Schofield, Victoria (2003). Kashmiri in Conflict, New York: Tauris.
  24. Schultz, K.A. (1999). "Do Democratic Institutions Constrain or Inform? Contrast- ing Two Institutional Perspectives on Democracy and War." International Orga- nization, Vol. 53, No. 2, pp. 233-266.
  25. Snidal, Duncan (1993). "Relative Gains and the Pattern of International coopera- tion" in David A. Baldwin (ed.) Neorealism and Neoliberalism: the Contempary Debate. New York: Colombia University Press.
  26. Van Belle, Douglas A. (2000). Press Freedom and Global Politics, Westport: Praeger.
  27. Walter, Barbara F. (1997). "The Critical Barrier to Civil War Settlement." Interna- tional Organization, Vol. 51, No. 3, Summer, pp. 335-364.
  28. Walter, Barbara F. and Jack Snyder (eds.) (1999). Civil Wars, Insecurity, and Inter- vention. New York: Colombia University Press.
  29. Walter, Barbara F. (2002). Committing to Peace: The Successful Settlement of Civil Wars, Princeton: Princeton University Press.
  30. Winkler,Bernhard (2002). "Which Kind of Transparency? On the Need for Effective Communication in Monetary Policy-Making," Working Paper.
  31. Wirsing, Robert G. (1994). India, Pakistan, and the Kashmir Dispute: On Regional Conflict and Its Resolution, New York: St. Martin's Press.
  32. Greece (1944-49) Bulgaria (I)*, Albania (I)
  33. Burma (1948-ongoing) China (I), Thailand, Taiwan
  34. India (1954-64)
  35. China, Pakistan, Portugal 5. Indonesia (1956-60) Netherlands
  36. China (1959-ongoing) USA, former USSR, India, S. Korea, UK, Burma, Thailand, Laos, N. Vietnam, S. Vietnam, Philippines, Australia, New Zealand, Taiwan, Nepal 7. Ethiopia (1960-91) Sudan (I), Somalia (I)
  37. S.Vietnam (1960-65) China, Cambodia
  38. Zaire (1960-65) Congo Brazzaville 10. Laos (1960-62) Thailand, former USSR (I), Vietnam 11. Iraq (1961-66) UK, Iran, Turkey 12. Yemen (1962-67) Saudi Arabia (I), UK
  39. Laos (1963-73) Thailand, N. Vietnam (I), China 14. Sudan (1963-72) Uganda 15. Indonesia (1963-ongoing)
  40. Japan, UK, Papua New Guinea 16. Israel (1964-ongoing) Iraq, Egypt, Syria, Jordan, Lebanon, former USSR, Algeria 17. Thailand (1965-85) Laos, Cambodia, N. Vietnam, Burma, China (I) 18. Zaire (1967) Congo Brazzaville 19. Spain (1968-ongoing) Morocco, Iran
  41. UK (1969-ongoing) former USSR, Iraq, Syria, Guatemala Argentina, Iran 21. Cambodia (1970-75)
  42. Thailand, USA (I), Vietnam (I)
  43. Jordan (1970) Israel, Syria (I), Iraq
  44. South Africa (1970-ongoing)
  45. Swaziland, Romania, Zimbabwe 24. Uganda (1971-72) Sudan, Romania 25. Bangladesh (1971-ongoing) India
  46. Pakistan (1971) Afghanistan, India (I)
  47. Guatemala (1972-ongoing) Mexico, UK 28. Philippines (1972-ongoing) Malaysia
  48. Zimbabwe (1972-79) Romania 30. Pakistan (1973-77) Afghanistan (I), India 31. Iraq (1974-75) UK, Israel, Kuwait 32. Cyprus (1974) Turkey (I) 33. Angola (1975-91) France, Morocco 34. Mauritania (1975-ongoing) Senegal, Romania 35. Morocco (1975-ongoing) Cuba, Algeria (I), Angola 36. Zaire (1977) Congo Brazzaville, Cuba 37. Zaire (1978-79) Congo Brazzaville 38. Afghanistan (1978-92) Iran (I), USSR (I), Pakistan (I) 39. Chad (1978-82) Romania
  49. Iran (1978-79) former USSR, Iraq (I) 41. Nicaragua (1978-79) Costa Rica 42. Cambodia (1978-91) Thailand (I)
  50. El Salvador (1979-92) Honduras (I) 44. Mozambique (1979-92) Romania
  51. Zimbabwe (1980-88) South Africa (I)
  52. Iran (1981-82) former USSR, Iraq, Kuwait, Afghanistan 48. Peru (1982-ongoing) USA (I)
  53. Sri Lanka (1982-ongoing) India (I)
  54. Nicaragua (1982-90)
  55. Costa Rica, Honduras (I), USA
  56. Somalia (1982-91) Ethiopia (I)
  57. Sudan (1983-ongoing)
  58. Ethiopia, Libya (I)
  59. Chad (1983-86) Romania
  60. Colombia (1984-ongoing) Venezuela
  61. Cyprus, Greece, Iran, Bulgaria
  62. Iraq (1985-ongoing) UK (I), Iran (I), Israel, Kuwait, Syria, Spain (I), Italy (I), Malta, Norway (I), Bahrain, Australia (I), Panama, France (I), Greece (I), Cyprus, Liberia, Turkey (I), USA (I)
  63. Ecuador (1985-89) Peru
  64. India (1985-ongoing) Sri Lanka, China, Pakistan (I), Bangladesh
  65. Papua New Guinea (1988-91) Indonesia
  66. Romania (1989) Congo, Russia *(I) indicates intervention.