Bank Credit Risk Rating Process: Is There a Difference Between Developed and Developing Country Banks? (original) (raw)

Bank Credit Risk Rating Process: Is There a Change With the 2007-09 Crisis?

International Journal of Financial Research, 2021

The purpose of this article is to study empirically the bank credit risk rating (BCRR) process over time using 89 banks from 27 EMENA countries rated by S&P’s simultaneously before and after 2007-09 crises. We made this comparison based on the CAMELS model with a proposed ‘S’ to BCRR. We use "ordered logit" regression for the rating classes and we complete our analysis by “linear multiple” regression for the rating grades. The results show that the rating changes in 2012 are mainly a methodology revision consequence of the entire rating process changes, including the weight of components, the important factors and the relevant variables in order to take into account some of the lessons learned from this global crisis. They also show a consistence between the BCRR's revealed and practiced methodologies revised by the credit rating agencies (CRAs).

Bank Credit Risk Rating Process: Is There a Difference Between Agencies?

International Journal of Financial Research

The purpose of this article is to compare the bank credit risk rating (BCRR) process between credit rating agency (CRA) after the 2012 revision of their methodologies using 76 banks from 23 EMENA countries rated simultaneously by S&P's, Moody's and FitchRatings. We made this comparison based on the CAMELS model with a proposed 'S’ to BCRR. We use “ordered logit” regression for the rating classes and we complete our analysis by “linear multiple” regression for the rating grades. The results show that the BCRR processes are largely consistent between agencies but not aligned. Some differences appear in the important factors and relevant variables of the intrinsic credit quality component that manifest themselves in specific behaviors distinguishing one agency to another. The three agencies agree on the factors: Capital, Earnings, Liquidity and Supports and the most relevant support variable is the sovereign rating of the bank's country of establishment. The results als...

1 RATING BANKS IN EMERGING MARKETS: What Credit Rating Agencies Should Learn From Financial Indicators

2015

The rating agencies ’ and bank supervisors ’ records of prompt identification of banking problems in emerging markets has not been satisfactory. This paper suggests that such deficiencies could be explained by the use of financial indicators that, while appropriate for industrial countries, do not work in emerging markets. Among the conclusions, this paper shows that the most commonly used indicator of banking problems in industrial countries, the capital-to-asset ratio, has performed poorly as an indicator of banking problems in Latin America and East Asia. This is because of (a) severe deficiencies in the accounting and regulatory framework and (b) lack of liquid markets for bank shares, subordinated debt and other bank liabilities and assets needed to validate the “real ” worth of a bank as opposed to its accounting value. In spite of these problems, an appropriate set of indicators for banking problems in emerging markets can be constructed. But such a system should be based not...

CAMELS Model With a Proposed ‘S’ for the Bank Credit Risk Rating

International Journal of Economics and Finance, 2018

The purpose of this article is to adopt the CAMELS model to the bank credit risk rating by using simple indicators from publicly available quantifiable information retrieval from their financial statements. Then, it is to test its empirical validation after completion of its revised methodology in 2012 as response to the sub-prime crisis using the rating "all-in" of 128 banks rated by Moody"s of 29 EMENA countries. We use "ordered logit" regression for the variable to explain the rating classes and the bootstrap resampling techniques to assess the stability degree of the best model selected with the information criteria"s AIC. Under this scheme, the explanatory powers measured by Pseudo R2 of the best model is 56.47%. The results show that the two components: intrinsic credit quality and the support of the environment measured respectively by CAMEL factors and the proposed "S" factor determine well the "all-in" ratings. The sovereign rating of the bank establishment country, the size and the "stand-alone" rating of the bank are the most relevant variables.

Are Bank Ratings Coherent with Bank Default Probabilities in Emerging Market Economies

2004

In this paper we investigate the coherence between bank ratings and default probability in emerging market economies using scoring and mapping techniques. In order to achieve its disciplining role, the rating should be coherent with the default risk it summarizes and disseminate. This issue is particularly crucial in emerging economies where under-developed financial markets, banking sector accrued opacity, and inadequate regulatory, institutional and legal environment affect banker's risk taking behavior and bank's default risk. Scoring results show a correct quantification of agency rating grades and thus their coherence. Mapping results show a tendency of the rating to aggregate bank's default risk information into intermediate low category grades.

A motivation for banks in emerging economies to adapt agency ratings when assessing corporate credit

South African Journal of Economic and Management Sciences, 2019

Background: This article considers whether South African banks should utilise the credit ratings provided by US-based credit rating agencies when assessing the creditworthiness of corporate borrowers.Aim: A review is conducted of the relevant literature and specifically the methodologies used by the credit rating agencies for ranking corporates in emerging markets.Setting: The three largest international credit rating agencies are Fitch Ratings, Moody’s Investor Services, and Standard and Poor’s. These agencies’ credit ratings cover the global spectrum of corporate, sovereign, financial and other public entities and the securities and obligations they issue. The analytical frameworks used to produce these ratings are referred to as credit rating methodologies.Method: A review of Moody’s ratings for South African corporate entities was undertaken to examine claims of a sovereign ceiling influencing the external ratings obtained by these institutions in emerging markets.Results: Only ...

Multi-Country Study of Bank Credit Risk Determinants

International Journal of Banking and Finance, 2008

This paper presents fresh findings about key determinants of credit risk of commercial banks in emerging economy banking systems compared with developed economies. Australia, France, Japan and the US represent developed economies; emerging economies are India, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico and Thailand. Credit risk theories and empirical literature suggest eight credit risk determinants. We find anywhere from two to four factors are alone significantly correlated with credit risk of any one banking system. Regulatory capital is significant for banking systems that offer multi products; management quality is critical in the cases of loan-dominant banks in emerging economies. Contrary to theory or studies, we find leverage is not correlated with credit risk in our test period. Data transformations and statistical corrections ensured these results are reliable: Model robustness was tested using AIC. The model developed here could be applied to test more emerging economy banking systems to ge...

The New Frontier in Risk Assessment: Estimation of Corporate Credit Rating Quality in Emerging Markets

The expansion of credit rating agencies into emerging markets is examined with respect to the overall quality of informational signals provided by ratings to capital markets. Corporate ratings from six developing economies with relatively sophisticated financial sectors are modeled using ordered probit estimation techniques. The paper finds that the informational content in emergingmarket corporate credit ratings is poor ipso facto and compared to similar models of developed market ratings, and suggests that the sample countries are subject to what is termed an 'emerging market premium'. The consequences of this hypothesis for applications in development finance and regulatory regimes are briefly considered. Procyclicality is not found to be a problem, but this is attributed to clustering rather than through-the-cycle design. It is concluded that corporate credit ratings currently do not actively enhance efficient financial intermediation in developing financial markets and are not a sufficient criterion for risk allocation in regulatory regimes.

Ratings assignments: Lessons from international banks

Journal of International Money and Finance, 2012

This paper estimates ordered logit and probit regression models for bank ratings which also include a country index to capture country-specific variation. The empirical findings provide support to the hypothesis that the individual international bank ratings assigned by Fitch Ratings are underpinned by fundamental quantitative financial analyses. Also, there is strong evidence of a country effect. Our model is shown to provide accurate predictions of bank ratings for the period prior to the 2007 -2008 banking crisis based upon publicly available information. However, our results also suggest that quantitative models are not likely to be able to predict ratings with complete accuracy. Furthermore, we find that both quantitative models and rating agencies are likely to produce highly inaccurate predictions of ratings during periods of financial instability.