The Case of the Missing Productivity Growth: Or, Does Information Technology Explain why Productivity Accelerated in the US but not the UK? (original) (raw)
Related papers
2003
Solow's paradox has disappeared in the United States but remains alive and well in the United Kingdom. In particular, the U.K. experienced an information and communications technology (ICT) investment boom in the 1990s in parallel with the U.S., but measured total factor productivity has decelerated rather than accelerated in recent years. We ask whether ICT can explain the divergent TFP performance in the two countries. Stories of ICT as a 'general purpose technology' suggest that measured TFP should rise in ICT-using sectors (reflecting either unobserved accumulation of intangible organizational capital; spillovers; or both), but perhaps with long lags. Contemporaneously, investments in ICT may in fact be associated with lower TFP as resources are diverted to reorganization and learning. In both the U.S. and U.K., we find a strong correlation between ICT use and industry TFP growth. The U.S. results are consistent with GPT stories: the acceleration after the mid-1990s was broadbased-located primarily in ICT-using industries rather than ICT-producing industries. Furthermore, industry TFP growth is positively correlated with industry ICT capital growth in the 1980s and early 1990s. Indeed, as GPT stories would suggest, controlling for past ICT growth, industry TFP growth appears negatively correlated with increases in ICT usage in the late 1990s. A somewhat different picture emerges for the U.K. TFP growth does not appear correlated with lagged ICT investment. But TFP growth in the 1990s is strongly and positively associated with the growth of ICT capital services, while being strongly and negatively associated with the growth of ICT investment. If, as we argue, unmeasured investment in complementary capital is correlated with ICT investment, then this finding too is consistent with the GPT story. However, comparing the first and second halves of the 1990s, the net effect of ICT is positive, suggesting that ICT cannot explain the observed TFP slowdown. On the other hand, our results do suggest, albeit tentatively, that the U.K. could see an acceleration in TFP growth over the next decade.
Information Technology and U.S. Productivity Growth
Industrial Productivity in Europe Growth and Crisis, 2010
The rapid productivity growth in the US during the Information Age, prior to the dot-com bust in 2000, and the large contribution of the IT producing sector, is well known. Less known are the sources of the surprisingly rapid TFP growth during the slow growth period after 2000. We construct an account of US economic growth by aggregating over detailed industries using a new data set based on the NAICS classification. We find that, post 2000, TFP originating from the IT-Producing sector decelerated relative to the IT boom, but still accounted for 40% of aggregate productivity growth. This deceleration was counterbalanced by the contribution from IT-Using sectors, which buoyed aggregate TFP growth to almost the same rate as the 1995-2000 period. For aggregate GDP, the contributions to the growth rate of 2.8% during 2000-2007 were: capital input (1.7% points), labor input (0.4) and TFP (0.7).
Journal of Productivity Analysis, 2011
The rapid productivity growth in the US during the Information Age, prior to the dot-com bust in 2000, and the large contribution of the IT producing sector, is well known. Less known are the sources of the surprisingly rapid TFP growth during the slow growth period after 2000. We construct an account of US economic growth by aggregating over detailed industries using a new data set based on the NAICS classification. We find that, post 2000, TFP originating from the IT-Producing sector decelerated relative to the IT boom, but still accounted for 40% of aggregate productivity growth. This deceleration was counterbalanced by the contribution from IT-Using sectors, which buoyed aggregate TFP growth to almost the same rate as the 1995-2000 period. For aggregate GDP, the contributions to the growth rate of 2.8% during 2000-2007 were: capital input (1.7% points), labor input (0.4) and TFP (0.7).
Productivity Growth and the Role of ICT in the United Kingdom: An Industry View, 1970-2000
Centre For Economic Performance the London School of Economics and Political Science London Uk, 2005
We use a new industry-level dataset to quantify the role of ICT in explaining productivity growth in the UK, 1970-2000. The dataset is for 34 industries covering the whole economy (31 in the market sector). Using growth accounting, we find that ICT capital played an increasingly important, and in the 1990s the dominant, role in accounting for labour productivity growth in the market sector. Econometric evidence also supports an important role for ICT. We also find econometric evidence that a boom in complementary investment in the 1990s could have led to a decline in the conventional measure of TFP growth.
Productivity Growth in ICT-producing and ICT-using Industries
OECD Science, Technology and Industry Working Papers, 2001
JT00109724 Document complet disponible sur OLIS dans son format d'origine Complete document available on OLIS in its original format DSTI/DOC(2001)4 Unclassified English text only DSTI/DOC(2001)4 2
ICT-specific technological change and productivity growth in the US 1980-2004
2008
This paper studies the impact of the information and communication technologies (ICT) on U.S. economic growth using a dynamic general equilibrium approach. We use a production function with six different capital inputs, three of them corresponding to ICT assets and other three to non-ICT assets. We find that the technological change embedded in hardware equipment is the main leading non-neutral force of the U.S. productivity growth and accounts for about one quarter of it during the period 1980-2004. As a whole, ICT-specific technological change accounts for about 35% of total labor productivity growth. JEL classification: E22, O30, O40.