Inflation Expectations, Perceptions and News Media: Regional Differences in Switzerland (original) (raw)
Related papers
2017
Apart from phenomenon of the “euro-induced price perception gap” in the euro area in 2002, the impact of media reporting on inflation tendencies is underexplored in the literature. Therefore, this paper tries to examine the influence of media content on the accuracy of consumers’ inflation perceptions and expectations in Croatia during the period 2007–2014. The authors obtain a unique database of articles from the archives of three leading Croatian news websites. The authors find that the content and tone of inflation-related articles significantly influence consumers’ ability to assess inflation accurately. The evidence is the most convincing in the aftermath of Croatian EU accession, when a considerable gap has emerged between consumers’ inflation sentiment and the official inflation rates. This is strikingly similar to the “euro-induced price perception gap” in 2002.
The euro cash changeover, inflation perceptions and the media
In the aftermath of the euro cash changeover consumers' inflation perceptions rose substantially in the euro area countries while actual inflation figures remained almost unchanged. During that period media reporting on the potentially large inflationary effect of the euro introduction intensified. In this paper we argue that the information set of the public has been distorted through the significant slant in the media.
The role of media for inflation forecast disagreement of households and professional forecasters
This paper investigates the effects of media coverage about consumer price inflation on inflation forecast disagreement of German households and professional forecasters. We adopt a Bayesian learning model in which media coverage of inflation affects forecast disagreement by influencing information sets as well as predictor choice. Our empirical results show that disagreement of households depends on the heterogeneity of story content and on the reporting intensity, especially of news on rising inflation. Disagreement of professional forecasters does not depend on media coverage. With respect to the influence of macroeconomic variables, we provide evidence that disagreement of professional forecasters primarily depends on the inflation rate and on inflation volatility. The response of households to inflation is much less pronounced.
Determinants of Inflation Perceptions and Expectations: an Empirical Analysis for Austria
Monetary Policy & the Economy, 2015
This study uses micro data from a survey among 2,000 Austrian households conducted in 2013 to investigate the socioeconomic determinants of inflation perceptions and expectations. In our econometric analysis, we find that socioeconomically disadvantaged respondents (less income, lower educational attainment) and older interviewees tend to have higher inflation perceptions. In contrast, respondents living in larger households or in agglomerations with more than 5,000 inhabitants have lower inflation perceptions. As to inflation expectations, we find that older and less educated people tend to report higher inflation expectations. Additionally, we document that women tend to have higher inflation expectations than men and that knowledge of the Eurosystem’s definition of price stability dampens inflation expectations. Moreover, respondents who are skeptical about the reliability of the official inflation indicators state higher inflation expectations. As largely correct and realistic i...
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2011
Just like private companies depend crucially on their ability to reach customers, policymakers must communicate with private agents to be successful-and much of this communication is channeled through the media. This is especially true for central banks, which need to build credibility among the general public. This paper analyses how favorably the print media report about the European Central Bank's (ECB) monetary policy decisions. Favorableness is, inter alia, influenced by the amount of information communicated by the ECB. There are, however, also indications of a critical monitoring role of the media, which reports more negatively when inflation exceeds the inflation target.
Inflation literacy and inflation expectations: Evidence from Austrian household survey data
Economic Modelling, 2020
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Sources of Economic News and Economic Expectations
American Politics Research, 2010
This article considers the process by which local economic news coverage influences individual evaluations of the economy. We improve on prior research by capturing a wider range of news sources (including national network news, national newspapers, local television news, and local newspapers) and connecting the effects of this coverage on individual level attitudes. We find that current personal financial evaluations, personal financial expectations, and short-term (12-month) expectations for the U.S. economy are related to national network coverage. Local television coverage of the economy is related to personal financial evaluations but not short-term economic expectations and local print news is important in structuring expectations of future business conditions. Overall, the findings illustrate important differences in economic coverage across media outlets and the effects of these differences on economic expectations. Exposure to different sources of economic information have ...
A Cross-National Analysis of the Causes and Consequences of Economic News
Social Science Quarterly
Objective. Work on economic news argues that U.S. coverage focuses primarily on changes rather than levels of future economic conditions; it also both affects and reflects public economic sentiment. Given that economic perceptions are related to policy preferences and government support, this is of consequence for politics. This article explores the generalizability of these findings. Methods. Using nearly 100,000 stories over 30 years in the United States, the United Kingdom, and Canada, we compare media tone, public opinion, and economic conditions. Result. Analyses demonstrate that media tone and public opinion follow future economic change in all three countries. Media and opinion are also related, but the effect mostly runs from the public to the media, not the other way around. Conclusion. These results confirm the generalizability of prior findings, and the importance of considering more than a simple unidirectional link between media coverage and public economic sentiment.