Why the crime drop? (original) (raw)
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Crime and Justice
The " crime drop " is the most important criminological phenomenon of modern times. In North America, Europe, and Australasia, many common crimes have fallen by half or more since the early 1990s, albeit with variation in the specifics. Seventeen explanations are examined here including demographics, policing, imprisonment, drug markets, and lead poisoning. Pioneering research relevant only to the United States now appears, with the benefit of hindsight, somewhat parochial. Sixteen of the 17 hypotheses fail one or more of four evidence-based standardized tests on which they are assessed. The one that passes is the security hypothesis, underpinned by crime opportunity theories. Here there is strong evidence that vehicle theft fell because of more and better security, and mounting evidence that improved security was critical in reducing burglary and other acquisitive crime. Many crime types are interrelated, while most criminal careers are dominated by property crime, so rem...
The crime drop and the security hypothesis
Major crime drops were experienced in the United States and most other industrialized countries for a decade from the early to mid-1990s. Yet there is little agreement over explanation or lessons for policy. Here it is proposed that change in the quantity and quality of security was a key driver of the crime drop. From evidence relating to vehicle theft in two countries, it is concluded that electronic immobilizers and central locking were particularly effective. It is suggested that reduced car theft may have induced drops in other crime including violence. From this platform, a broader security hypothesis, linked to routine activity and opportunity theory, is outlined.
Five tests for a theory of the crime drop
Many studies have sought to explain the major crime declines experienced in most advanced countries. Key hypotheses relate to: lead poisoning; abortion legalization; drug markets; demographics; policing numbers and strategies; imprisonment; strong economies; the death penalty; gun control; gun concealment; immigration; consumer confidence; the civilizing process, and; improved security. This paper outlines five tests that a hypothesis should pass to be considered further. It finds that fourteen of the fifteen hypotheses fail two or more tests. The security hypothesis appears to pass the tests, and thereby pave the way for further research.
Explaining and sustaining the crime drop: Clarifying the role of opportunity-related theories
Crime Prevention and Community Safety: An International Journal, 2010
Western industrialised countries experienced major reductions in crime for a decade from the early to mid-1990s. The absence of adequate explanation identifi es a failing of criminological theory and empirical study. More importantly, it means that none of the forces that reduced crime can confi dently be harnessed for policy purposes. Existing hypotheses relating to the crime drops are reviewed and found generally wanting. Many do not stand up to empirical testing. Others do not seem able to explain crime increases (such as phone theft and robbery and internet-related crimes) that occurred alongside the crime drops. It is suggested that the set of opportunity-related theories, or the criminologies of everyday life, present a more promising line of research. The ' security hypothesis ' is discussed wherein changes in the level and quality of security may have been a key driving force behind the crime drop, and an agenda of crime-specifi c research is proposed.
Law and Social Inquiry-journal of The American Bar Foundation, 2010
This essay reviews three books as they document and explain the 1990s crime decline: Alfred Blumstein and Joel Wallman, eds., (2006) The Crime Drop in America; Arthur S. Goldberger and Richard Rosenfeld, eds., (2008) Understanding Crime Patterns: Workshop Report; and Franklin E. Zimring (2007), The Great American Crime Decline.It presents the empirical detail of the crime decline and examines the most commonly cited explanatory factors: imprisonment, policing, demography, and economic growth. It then suggests alternative lines of research in urban sociology—urban development, youth culture, and immigration—that may better explain the decline as the result of changes in the cultural and social fabric of American society, particularly in cities where the steepest declines occurred.
Target suitability and the crime drop
Recent research identifies reduced target suitability, via improved security, as central to the ’crime drop’ experienced in many countries. Studies in different countries show car theft fell with far more and better vehicle security. Yet increases in household security were more modest and do not track burglary’s decrease as well. Here we explain that apparent anomaly as due more to an improvement in the quality of household security leading to reduced burglary. It is further suggested that improvements to home insulation in the UK that brought double glazing may have, somewhat inadvertently, introduced better frames and locks for doors and windows, that in turn reduced household burglary.
Evaluating Contemporary Crime Drop(s) in America, New York City, and Many Other Places
Justice Quarterly, 2012
This paper describes and evaluates some fundamental facts about the contemporary crime drop, summarizes the major explanations that have been offered for it, and assesses the validity of these explanations in light of observed trends. In contrast with much of the recent literature, we argue that the locus of the crime drop in the 1990s is not wholly consistent with the available data and that while New York City experienced substantial crime decreases, its uniqueness has been exaggerated. We suggest that it is important to partition the crime drop observed in New York City and elsewhere into global and more localized shifts, and we offer some observations about the factors that appear most germane to driving these different dimensions of recent crime drops. We conclude with some suggestions for future inquiry. Keywords crime trends; 1990s crime drop; New York City Eric Baumer is the Allen E. Liska Professor of Criminology at Florida State University. His research focuses on spatial and temporal dynamics of crime and punishment. His scholarship has appeared in Criminology, Justice Quarterly, American Journal of Sociology, and American Sociological Review. Kevin Wolff is a doctoral candidate in the College of Criminology and Criminal Justice, Florida State University. His research focuses on crime trends and the role of neighborhood context in shaping attitudes and behavior.
Attempted crime and the crime drop
This study contributes to crime drop research on the security hypothesis. Using data from the Crime Survey for England and Wales, it finds that the decline in attempted vehicle-related theft and domestic burglary was delayed by 2–4 years. Between 1993 and 1997, completed domestic burglary fell 21% but attempts by only 2.1%, while between 1993 and 1995 theft of cars fell 8% but attempts increased 3%. The delay is interpreted as consistent with rational choice theory and with some offenders continuing to try, but failing, to complete these crimes when faced with improved security. The subsequent decline in attempts is consistent with offenders, particularly new cohorts of adolescents, having been discouraged.