Alliance dynamics and the turn toward moderation in Iran’s relations with surrounding states (original) (raw)
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International Studies. Interdisciplinary Political and Cultural Journal, 2018
After the outbreak of the Arab Spring and, above all, the intensification of the Syrian crisis with Ankara starting to engage in a political confrontation with Assad's Syria, Tehran tried to exploit its historic strategic alliance with Damascus in a search for projecting its influence abroad. As Turkey has been facing more and more hardships and experiencing political isolation, Iran seemed to be more comfortable with its external environment, benefiting from a convergence of interests with Russia. However, the advent of ISIS created further disarray in the region, presenting opportunities for countries to cooperate especially for Erdogan's new Turkey which was still focused on fighting Kurds.
The announced defeat of the Syrian rebellion and the Islamic State is favoring the extension of Iranian influence in the Levant. The Iranian corridor between Beirut and Tehran via Baghdad and Damascus is now a reality. Territorial continuity was achieved symbolically at the end of May 2017, when Iranian-funded Shia militias joined on both sides of the Syrian-Iraqi border north of al-Tanf. In Iraq, Iranian allies Syria and Lebanon dominate; people support them out of fear, default, or sympathy. If the West wants to fight against the Islamic Republic's influence in the Levant, it must understand the root causes pushing more and more Lebanese Christians, Iraqi Shiites, and Syrian Sunni Arabs into the Iranian camp.
Turkey and Iran A frenemy relation before and after the Arab Springs
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Amid the enormous challenges and uncertainties that Middle East is unceasingly facing, Turkey and Iran have been reemerging as leading and active regional powers. At first, they both optimistically welcomed the Arab Springs as a source of opportunities. This conviction has led them to elaborate new foreign policy approaches aiming at exploiting power vacuums to increase their influence in the area. While many of the regional dynamics are partially explicable under a constructivist perspective that includes the Sunni-Shia’s rivalry, Turkish- Iranian relations seem to be guided by a certain grade of realism or, at least, by a bipartisan attempt to rationalize and balance their own policies within the broader framework of their interdependence and final goals. What remains unclear is the effective equilibrium between their predictions and the danger of overstretching postures that may deteriorate domestic security and external alliances. Hence, the objective is to demonstrate that, although some scenarios have posed their interests on opposite sides and their leaderships have different ideological and political conceptions, some major pillars have prevented any direct confrontation and held unharmed the diplomatic and economic sphere. After briefly resuming the historical path of their relations through the recent watersheds, the focus will be on some specific issues which best show shifts and challenges in their relations. Overall, the aim is to investigate to what extent the Arab Springs have reshaped and made their interests to converge or to diverge. If on the one hand, their actions have collided in the Syrian conflict – as well as in Iraq and in the Kurdish question –, on the other hand, the nuclear deal process, the enlarged economic cooperation and the political rapprochement are all signals that common points still represent the main driver of their “frenemy coexistence” in the Middle Eastern order.
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