International Law and Sea Level Rise (original) (raw)
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Science, 2013
p. 23), R. A. Kerr highlights three fundamental conclusions about climate change that were assessed with equal or greater confi dence than in previous IPCC reports. He also points to three "contentious points" on which he states that the AR5 "took a moderate line." Kerr includes sea-level projections among these points, and reports "a rise of 40 to 60 centimeters by late in the century and a worst case of 1 meter by 2100, [which is] higher than in 2007 but far below the meter or two of sea-level rise that some expect."
Sea Level Rise - Regional and Global Trends
Proceedings of OceanObs'09: Sustained Ocean Observations and Information for Society, 2010
This Plenary Paper on sea level is based on several Community White Papers submitted to OceanObs09. Considerable progress has been realized during the past decade in measuring sea level change globally and regionally, and in understanding the climate-related causes of observed changes. We first review current knowledge about sea level change, globally and regionally. We summarize recent results from the 2007 IPCC 4 th Assessment Report (AR4), as well as post-IPCC results relevant to sea level observations, causes and projections. New challenges are identified for the coming decade in terms of observations, modelling and impact studies. From these challenges, a number of recommendations emerge, which are listed below:
Sea-Level Rise and International Law
Climate Law, 2014
Since core aspects of international law rely on the general stability of geographical conditions, sea-level rise may bring fundamental challenges and require profound re-examination of currently accepted paradigms of international law. This article briefly addresses three questions: first, are the prospects of sea-level rise already a real concern from the viewpoint of international law? Second, what is the relevance of this perspective for current international law? And third, how should international law in the future approach the phenomenon of sea-level rise?
2011
The range of future climate-induced sea-level rise remains highly uncertain with continued concern that large increases in the twenty-first century cannot be ruled out. The biggest source of uncertainty is the response of the large ice sheets of Greenland and west Antarctica. Based on our analysis, a pragmatic estimate of sea-level rise by 2100, for a temperature rise of 4 • C or more over the same time frame, is between 0.5 m and 2 mthe probability of rises at the high end is judged to be very low, but of unquantifiable probability. However, if realized, an indicative analysis shows that the impact potential is severe, with the real risk of the forced displacement of up to 187 million people over the century (up to 2.4% of global population). This is potentially avoidable by widespread upgrade of protection, albeit rather costly with up to 0.02 per cent of global domestic product needed, and much higher in certain nations. The likelihood of protection being successfully implemented varies between regions, and is lowest in small islands, Africa and parts of Asia, and hence these regions are the most likely to see coastal abandonment. To respond to these challenges, a multi-track approach is required, which would also be appropriate if a temperature rise of less than 4 • C was * Author for correspondence (R.J.Nicholls@soton.ac.uk).
Sea Level Rise: Recent Trends and Future Projections
Tomorrow's Coasts: Complex and Impermanent, 2018
…admit that the waters around you have grown and accept it that soon you'll be drenched to the bone.-Also from Bob Dylan, Nobel Laureate, c. 1964 3.1 Post-glacial Global Sea Level Rise About 20,000 years ago, the world was in the last glacial phase of the Pleistocene ice age and vast, thick continental glaciers covered North America and Europe. A significant fraction of the earth's water was locked up in those glaciers and global sea level (referred to as glacio-Eustatic sea level) was roughly 120 m (390 ft) below the present level (Fairbanks 1989; Chappell and Shackleton 1986; Pirazzoli 1991). Beginning around 20,000 years ago, the continental ice sheets began to melt and the global (Eustatic) sea level began to rise. This rise proceeded for the ensuing 12 millennia until reaching a level a few meters below the present level about 7000 years ago (Fig. 3.1a). For the period from about 8000 years ago until about 1000 years ago, seas continued to rise much more gradually (Fig. 3.1b). Over the past millennium, changes in sea level have been dominated more by regional and global than by glacial melt. During the glacial low stands of sea level, most of continental shelf sea floors were exposed and many were undoubtedly occupied by early peoples. Off the East Coasts of North America and China as well parts of Southeast Asia, the seashore
Sea-level rise: A review of recent past and near-future trends
Earth Surface Processes and Landforms, 1995
Global mean sea level is a potentially sensitive indicator of climate change. Glc -11 warming will contribute to worldwide sea-level rise (SLR) from thermal expansion of ocean water, melting of mountain glaciers and polar ice sheets. A number of studies, mostly using tide-gauge data from the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level, Bidston Observatory, England, have obtained rates of global SLR within the last 100 years that range between0.3 and 3 mm yr-', with most valuesconcentrated between 1 and 2mm yr-'. However, the reliability of these results has been questioned because of problems with data quality and physical processes that introduce a high level of spatial and temporal variability. Sources of uncertainty in the sealevel data include variations in winds, ocean currents, river runoff, vertical earth movements, and geographically uneven distribution of long-term records. Crustal motions introduce a major source of error. To a large extent, these can be filtered by employing palaeo-sea-level proxies, and geophysical modelling to remove glacio-isostatic changes. Ultimately, satellite geodesy will help resolve the inherent ambiguity between the land and ocean level changes recorded by tide gauges.