Conflict Analysis of the Philippines (original) (raw)

This rapid literature review examines the main conflict and instability drivers in the Philippines. Key findings include: Conflict profile ▪ Conflict has been a longstanding feature of the Philippines, with two long-running insurgencies, and a number of other types of conflict and violence. The current situation is complex and dynamic, with an "increasingly fragmented array of violent extremist organizations" (TNC, 2019). ▪ In the current day the main types of violence and conflict include: violence by state actors against civilians; clan related violence; political and armed conflicts by nationalist/separatist groups in Mindanao and the Sulu Archipelago; a communistinspired guerrilla campaign (mainly in western Mindanao); violent extremist and criminal groups; anti-drug vigilantes; other criminal violence; domestic and gender-based violence; protests; violence around elections; and local conflicts over resources and community rights. ▪ The Philippines is in the midst of a "human rights crisis" following President Duterte's election in 2016 and the initiation of his war on drugs (Human Rights Watch (HRW), 2018). ▪ More than 150,000 have been estimated to have been killed in conflicts in Central and Western Mindanao over the past five decades. ▪ There have been at least three main peace agreements between the government and different insurgent groups over history, but none have delivered a sustainable peace yet. Conflict and instabilityinsurgent groups and drivers Insurgent groups ▪ The Philippines has a long history of insurgent groups, three main armed insurgent groups are currently active, plus there are multiple violent extremist groups and factions. Militants move easily between violent extremism, insurgency and criminality. A number of groups align themselves to the so-called Islamic State (IS). Some see the new groups as representing a new strand of violent extremism, while others see them as having evolved from the previous struggles for secession and self-determination. Drivers of conflict in the southern Philippines A wide range of drivers and grievances are identified in the literature, however, importantly, ICG (2019) highlights that "generalisations can be misleading because motivations for participation in violence vary from place to place and individual to individual". ▪ Poverty, lack of opportunities, land dispossession and marginalisation-A key driver of violent extremism in Mindanao is longstanding historical grievances against the national government, this especially draws on feelings that the Muslim minority population has been marginalised by the dominant Christian population. There has been an acute sense of political and cultural alienation, and economic marginalisation. This draws on the reality that the Southwestern Mindanao and the Sulu archipelago are the poorest provinces in the Philippines, and one of Southeast Asia's least developed