Evaluation of the Effects of Price, Exchange, and Volume on the Growth of Revenues from Brazilian Exports of Wood Products (original) (raw)

Brazil has advanced in export volume but has not been able to increase prices over the last decade for wood products. This work seeks to contribute to the understanding of this confl icting scenario, evaluating the growth in the revenue of Brazilian exports of these products during two periods: 2011-2015 and 2016-2020, as well as decomposing its eff ects in price, exchange rate, and volume. The method applied was the shift-share, widely used to identify determinants of sectoral and regional economic growth, being a precursor to the approach in the analysis of forest sector exports. Historical series for 5 (fi ve) categories of wood products were analyzed, with export data from the Ministry of Economy. The historical series of nominal exchange rates from the Institute of Applied Economic Research (IPEA) was used. The real eff ective exchange rate (RER) followed the methodological note of the IPEA. All product categories analyzed had positive eff ects in terms of volume, for both periods, with a greater proportion in the second being driven by the exchange rate, although with a loss in real price, failing to off set infl ation. The only exception was wood manufacturers, a product with higher added value, which presented gains in volume, exchange rates, and price. The volume eff ect was the most relevant, followed by the exchange rate as a result of the appreciation of the dollar against the real against the exchange rate and control of infl ation in terms of the divergent eff ects on the national and international scenario. The price presented negative variations in export revenue, with a decline over the period. In addition to the added value of exported products, world stocks and levels of consumption may have contributed negatively to this scenario, aff ecting all categories of exported products, except for manufactured wood products, the only category that did not refl ect such justifi cations.