An Agent-Based Model of Hepatitis C Virus Transmission Dynamics in India (original) (raw)
2019, 2019 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC)
In this study, we develop a model of hepatitis C virus (HCV) transmission dynamics capable of analyzing the health, economic and epidemiological impact of treatment and large-scale screening in the Indian context. The model simulates the interaction of infected and uninfected agents in environments wherein key risk factors of HCV transmission operate. The natural history of disease is simulated using a previously published and validated Markov model. The agent interaction/transmission environments simulated by the model include a home environment for transmission via unprotected sex, a medical environment for transmission via unsafe medical practices, educational and social interaction environments for conversion of non-injecting drug user (IDU) agents to IDUs and transmission via sharing of injecting equipment among IDUs. The model is calibrated to current HCV and IDU prevalence targets. We present model calibration results and preliminary results for the impact of treatment uptake rates on HCV and IDU prevalence.
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