Present and future long-term variability of the north Ionian surface circulation (original) (raw)

Abstract

In recent years, much work has been devoted to the characterization of the long-term variability of the circulation in the North Ionian Sea, which in the last three decades has been dominated by the so-called Bimodal Oscillation (BIOS). Here we further investigate this topic, both in the context of present climate and in a future scenario, analyzing the results of simulations made with the MED16 model. MED16 is a new, tide-including implementation of the MITgcm oceanic model, which covers the Mediterranean-Black Sea system with a horizontal resolution of 1/16° that is further increased at the Gibraltar and Turkish Straits. Three simulations have been performed: a hindcast run (1980-2010), used to validate the model; a historical run (1980-2005), which provides initial conditions for the scenario simulation; and a future climate (2006-2100) simulation, using atmospheric forcing under the Rcp8.5 emission scenario.The hindcast run shows a variability of the surface circulation that is ...

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