Pablo Hernández de Cos: The macroeconomic outlook for Spain in a global context and upcoming fiscal challenges (original) (raw)
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IMF Staff Country Reports, 1997
Use and supply of resources (1995) Private consumption Public consumption Fixed investment Stockbuilding Gross domestic expenditure Exports of goods and services Imports of goods and services Gross domestic product In billJQflff nf pesetas 43,223.6 Real domestic demand Real GDP at market prices Unit labor costs in manufacturing Consumer prices (period average) Consumer prices (end-of-period) Unemployment rate (period average) 1993 1994 1995-4.3-1.2 4.8 4.6 4.9 22.7 1.2 2.1-2.8 4.7 4.3 24.2 3.1 2.8-1.2 4.7 4.3 22.9 Public sector accounts (as percent of GDP) General government Current revenue Current expenditure Capital expenditure (net) Overall balance (Maastricht definition) I/ 7 9 Chart n.2 uses the average inflation consensus forecasts, and shows the forecast for 1995, 1996, and 1997 inflation and for year-on-year inflation in the first half of 1997, produced at the various dates indicated on the horizontal axis. Arrows indicate the dates of interest rate hikes or cuts of the 10-day repurchase rate by the Bank of Spain. ©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution-18a-Chart II. 1 SPAIN CONVERGENCE INDICATORS I/ Computed using 12-month average CPI. 2/ Year-on-year inflation. 3/ Average inflation in the three best performing countries, plus 1.5 percent. 4/ Average interest rate in the same three countries, plus 2 percent. 5/ Target range of 3.5-4 percent inflation announced in November 1994 for the first six months of 1996. 6/ Target ceiling of 3 percent inflation announced in November 1994 for 1997. 7/ Average over the last 12 months.
Mexico Consensus Economic Forecast, Volume 22, Number3
2019
Multiple economic challenges ranging from a weak peso to trade disputes with the United States were encountered during 2018. With many unanswered policy questions still hovering over the economy, the 2019 consensus GDP growth forecast has been revised downwards to 2.2 percent. Individual forecasts range from 1.9 percent to 3.1 percent. Private consumption still leads the way in 2019 with a 2.7 percent rate of increase projected for 2019. That rate represents a slower rate of growth than what the panelists collectively anticipated last quarter. Consumer confidence likely remains strong following the AMLO and Morena victories at the polls last July. The consensus outlook for Government consumption is 2.2 percent in 2019. There is a wider spectrum of forecasts for this variable than others, ranging from a low of 1.0 percent to a high of 3.8 percent. Part of the uncertainty stems from questions over how many large scale expenditure changes will eventually be introduced by the new government.
Mexico Consensus Economic Forecast, Volume 18, Number 1
2015
Brother, Can You Spare a Dollar? Real GDP grew by 2.6 percent in the last quarter of 2014 compared to one year earlier. Though still relatively modest, it was the largest year-over-year increase in quarterly GDP reported since the end of 2012. The consensus forecast for real GDP growth in 2015 is 2.9 percent. Consumer confidence remains subdued amid political scandals and currency market volatility. Growth in manufacturing and other key sectors may, however, help boost consumer spending later this year. The consensus forecast calls for a moderate 2.7 percent increase in private consumption. Low oil prices will strain government budget plans in 2015. This, together with ongoing economic stimulus efforts, contributes to uncertainty regarding future growth in government consumption. Forecasts in this category span a wide range and average 3.6 percent. Growth in total investment spending has faltered over the last two years. Most panelists predict that spending in this category will recover in 2015. A rebound in the construction sector is driving expectations of increased total investment, which is forecast to grow at 4.1 percent. While the drop in oil prices hurts Mexico as an oil exporter, improving economic activity in the United States and a weak peso are likely to stimulate exports of manufactures. Exports are expected to grow by 4.8 percent in 2015. Similarly, a 4.9 percent rise in imports is expected. Most panelists expect that inflation will remain under control in a context of still unimpressive economic growth and low energy prices. All of the panelists predict lower inflation in 2015 than what was observed in 2014. The consensus inflation forecast is 3.3 percent. The consensus exchange rate forecast for 2015 is 14.3 pesos per dollar. This figure reflects a marked depreciation of the peso relative to last year's average value. However, it also suggests that the nominal value of the peso will recover substantially relative to its current trading range. One of the factors behind the peso depreciation is the expectation of higher interest rates in the United States. In this context, interest rates in Mexico are also expected to edge upward this year. The consensus forecast for the yield on 28-day CETES in 2015 is 3.4 percent. In general, panelist forecasts for 2016 are slightly more optimistic than the 2015 forecasts. Real GDP is expected to grow by 3.1 percent next year. Private and government consumption are predicted to grow by 3.0 and 3.4 percent, respectively. The recovery in total investment is projected to continue into 2016, with 4.5 percent growth predicted for that category. The 2016 consensus forecast calls for stronger growth in international trade. Exports are forecast to grow by 5.6 percent and imports by 5.7 percent. The 2016 inflation forecast is 3.5 percent. The predicted average exchange rate is 14.26 pesos per dollar, which is very close to the exchange rate forecast for the current year. In light of expected improvements in overall economic conditions, somewhat higher interest rates are expected for 2016. The predicted yield on 28 Day CETES is 4.0 percent.
GeographyRN: Economic Geography (Topic), 2021
English abstract: In discussing the first Draft State Budget to address the economic and social impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Governor begins with an analysis of the economy’s recent behaviour and how it may evolve in the coming quarters, drawing on the Banco de España’s projections. Against this background, he assesses the Government’s macroeconomic forecast underpinning the Draft State Budget. He proceeds to calibrate the Budget’s main proposals in terms of the fiscal policy stance, the composition and appropriateness of public revenue and expenditure, and the risks to meeting the budget deficit target. Lastly, he sets out what he considers to be the key challenges for Spanish fiscal policy in the medium term.Spanish abstract: En la discusión del Proyecto de los primeros Presupuestos Generales del Estado (PGE) que deberán afrontar el impacto económico y social de la pandemia de COVID-19, el gobernador inicia su comparecencia con un análisis del comportamiento reciente de la...