Agent-Based Simulation of Crime (original) (raw)

State of the Art in Agent-Based Modeling of Urban Crime: An Overview

Journal of Quantitative Criminology

Objectives Agent-based modeling (ABM) is a type of computer simulation that creates a virtual society and allows controlled experimentation. ABM has the potential to be a powerful tool for exploring criminological theory and testing the plausibility of crime prevention interventions when data are unavailable, when they would be unethical to collect, or when policy-makers need an answer quickly. This paper takes stock of the current literature to discuss the potential contributions of ABM, assess current practice, identify shortcomings that threaten the validity of findings using ABM, and to make suggestions regarding the construction and communication of future work using ABM. Methods We systematically searched major databases to find all publications using ABM to simulate urban crime patterns and coded publications to quantify the following information: (1) characteristics of the publication, the model and the agents, (2) model purpose, (3) crime type investigated, and (4) interrogation of the model via sensitivity testing and validation. Results After sifting papers according to our inclusion criteria, we identified and reviewed 45 publications. Models informed by the opportunity theory framework dominated. Most publications lacked detail sufficient to enable replication. Many did not include clear a rationale for modeling choices, parameter selection or calibration. Rarely were parameters

Comparing Crime Prevention Strategies by Agent-Based Simulation

2009 IEEE/WIC/ACM International Joint Conference on Web Intelligence and Intelligent Agent Technology, 2009

Within the field of Criminology, an important challenge is to investigate the spatio-temporal dynamics of crime. Typical questions in this area are how the emergence of criminal hot spots can be predicted and prevented. This paper presents an agentbased simulation approach that is able to address such questions. More specifically, the approach can be used to compare different strategies for guardian movement in terms of their effectiveness. To illustrate the approach, a number of simulation experiments have been performed, and the results are discussed. † In this paper we focus explicitly on crimes that are performed on the street against random passers-by, e.g. pick-pocketing.

Can agent-based simulation models replicate organised crime?

Trends in Organized Crime, 2016

The aim of the paper is to discuss the possibility of using complex software agents in a simulation model in order to represent and analyse the dynamics of certain types of criminal systems via Agent Based Modelling (ABM), in particular Extortion Racket Systems (ERSs). It presents a simulation model and the results of a large number of runs to find out under which parameter constellations governing the normative behaviour of the software agents the model replicates the macro observations in a number of provinces in Southern Italy. Finally the simulation model is applied to analysing strategies and their effect on the behaviour of the agents and the system as a whole. Keywords Extortion rackets • Norms • Deliberative agents Introduction: simulation as a deductive approach Simulation means deducing macrostructures from microspecifications with the help of computer programs where it is impossible or extremely difficult to do such a deduction with classical mathematics. In a way this methodological approach in sociology can be described paraphrasing a quotation from Max Planck in 1930: The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Union Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under grant agreement no. 315874 ("Global dynamics of extortion racket systems"). Author declares that he has no conflict of interest.

Agent-Based Simulation of Episodic Criminal Behaviour

Criminal behaviour often involves a combination of physical, mental, social and environmental (multi-)agent aspects, such as neurological deviations, hormones, arousal, (non)empathy, targets and social control. This paper contributes a dynamical agent-based approach for analysis and simulation of criminal behaviour, covering the above aspects, illustrated for the case of an Intermittent Explosive Disorder. It involves dynamically generated desires and beliefs in opportunities within the social environment, both based on literature on criminal behaviour.

THE AGENT BASED MODELAPPLIED TO CRIME

2011

This work develops an agent-based model to study the emergent properties due to public enforcement of criminal law. In order to build a model of criminal behavior suitable to the project the economic analysis of crime is used as the basic framework, most specially Becker's (1968) seminal work, but also Shavell and Polinsky , , and . The mainstream has been the economic analysis of law, which considers the agent as a rational decision maker. The model was implemented using NetLogo 3.1.4, a multiagent software platform . The simulation program provides a wide range of dynamic options making it easy to perform any kind of test in order to assess the behavior of a given criminal rule in its dynamic operation. Validation and experimental tests were performed. The resulting responses were consistent with the theoretical basis on which the model was based on.

An Agent-Based Model for Public Security Strategies by Predicting Crime Patterns

IEEE Access

In recent years, statistical methods have been applied to the study of crime patterns. However, these schemes have several drawbacks that prevent accurate modeling of complex behaviors. Agent-based models (ABM) allow the modeling of human behavior by employing simple rules that consider each agent's neighborhood. In this paper, a new agent-based model is proposed to emulate crime patterns produced by the interaction of different urban actors, such as offenders (criminals), citizens, and defenders (police officers). Using this approach, the simulation results provide escape trajectories and robbery frequencies that can be used to create or improve public security strategies. Although our scheme can be generically applied, we validated the model by considering different scenarios for the case of Guadalajara, Mexico. Experimental results show that the proposed scheme creates realistic offender behaviors that efficiently predict criminal patterns and provides essential data that allow the creation and improvement of public security strategies to reduce the number of crimes. INDEX TERMS Agent-based model (ABM), crime simulations, crime patterns, routine activity, computer simulation.

Agent-based simulation of episodic criminal behaviour1

Multiagent and Grid Systems, 2014

Criminal behaviour often involves a combination of physical, mental, social and environmental (multi-)agent aspects, such as neurological deviations, hormones, arousal, (non)empathy, targets and social control. This paper contributes a dynamical agent-based approach for analysis and simulation of criminal behaviour, covering the above aspects, illustrated for the case of an Intermittent Explosive Disorder. It involves dynamically generated desires and beliefs in opportunities within the social environment, both based on literature on criminal behaviour.