Impact of Air Transport on the Indonesian Economy (original) (raw)
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This study aims to find out the causal relationship between air transport and economic growth based on income level. To this end, selected countries with high-income, uppermiddle-income, lower-middle-income, and low-income levels were included in the analyses for this study. Focusing on the 1990-2016 period, a total of 70 countries were classified according to their income levels and were analyzed empirically. In the study, panel causality analyzes by and Emirmahmutoğlu & Köse (2011) were used. Our findings show that GDP has a certain degree of effect on air transport. They also indicate that the unidirectional or bidirectional causal relationships running from GDP to air transport and air transport to GDP vary by the income level of countries.
AIR-TRANSPORT AND MACROECONOMIC PERFORMANCE IN ASIAN COUNTRIES: An Analysis
2015
Factors of growth have always been the attention of development economists. This research work investigates the role of air-transport in macroeconomic performance of Asian countries from 1970 to 2014. For this, we resort to econometric techniques, such as Pesaran Cross-Sectional Dependence Test, Cross-Sectional Augmented IPS, Mean Group (MG), Common Correlated Effect Mean Group (CCEMG), Augmented Mean Group (AMG), and Panel Granger Causality. Empirical results confirm the hypothesis that air- transport has a significant role in economic growth of sample countries. Moreover, a feedback effect also exists from macroeconomic performance and air-transport. It is recommended that airtransport sector should be given formal incentive so as to augment its macroeconomic contribution to economic growth.
Causality analysis between GDP growth and air transport indicators in Turkey
2022
In this research; causality analysis between gdp growth and air transport indicators in turkey for the period 1960-2019 will be analyzed. The extent of interaction between some airline data and GDP in Turkey is studied. stationary, johansen co-integration and granger causality tests were conducted to analyze the relations between GDP and air transport data (cargo quantity, number of passengers carried and oil prices) in Turkey. The unit measures of the variables obtained as measurement data in the analyzes; GDP and oil prices are in dollars, the number of passengers carried is in persons and the amount of cargo in tons. In the applied analyzes; the logarithms of the gross domestic product growth rate (GDP), the total number of passengers at the airports in Turkey (PAX), the amount of cargo carried in tons (cargo) and the average annual oil prices (OPEC) are used. Stability tests for examining the relationships between stationary variables in the design phase of the regression model used in the research; has been made. Therefore, with the help of the "Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root test (ADF)", it was examined whether the variables in the data set used were stationary; It has been determined that all variables of the series have a unit root and therefore are not stationary. As a result of the johansen co-integration test conducted for this study; The calculated trace values and test statistics of the eigenvalue were calculated, it was decided that there were 2 cointegrated equations and it was determined that there were 2 long-term vector relationships between the variables. When the results of the granger causality test are examined; there is a causal relationship between the amount of cargo carried by the gross domestic product However, it has been determined that there is no causal relationship between the fuel price, the total number of passengers carried and the gross domestic product. As a result of this research; it is expected to make significant contributions to the literature empirically on the relationship between aviation and GDP growth in Turkey.
The major goal of this research paper is to investigate the relationship among Turkish Economic growth, airway transportation and FDI. Several research results consistent with this papers finding and it has been founded that the economic growth plays a crucial role in air transportation by implementing econometrical models including Multiple Linear Regression (MLR), Johansen co-integration test and VAR model. The variables have been put into the Vector Autoregressive Model (VAR) and Johansen co-integration test. According to the test result of Johansen co-integration test there is a long-term relationship between the variables of GDP, FDI and air transportation. According to the both variance decomposition and Impulse Response analysis, the effect of GDP is found to increase air transportation more than the FDI. Finally, the contribution of Turkish economy to civil aviation seems significant which is consistent with this paper’s research results.
Air Transportation Development and Economic Growth in Nigeria
Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development, 2015
This work is an evaluation of the influence of air transport sector development on economic growth in Nigerian. Over the years, various governments of Nigeria have put in place a series of policy instruments for the development of the aviation sector as sinews to bolster the desired growth. But air transport system continues to mirror inefficiency, mismanagement and airline mishap. This study developed a series of econometrics models including dynamic ordinary regression equation, cointegration, error correction model and granger causality techniques to examine the relationship between air transport and economic growth. The analyses suggests a positive influence of air transport on economic growth, a long run equilibrium relationship and a causal unidirectional relations from air transport to economic growth. The diagnostic test for the normality of the model showed that the model functional form is adequate, stable with no serial correlation. From the analysis, this study recommends a proactive and dynamic cohesive transport policy that benefits all the stakeholders. Also, the sector must improve on its managerial expertise guided by adequate transparency and accountability in order to achieve results and develop the sector to an international standard worthy of emulation.
Today, the economic and social effects of the airports on the region they are located are widely accepted throughout the world including Turkey. In developing countries transportation sector is a significant tool of development. Since millennium there has been a great growth in the number of people who prefer air transportation in Turkey. The decrease in the cost of the transportation of both passengers and freight in air transport leads the increase of its accessibility. In this concept when a region has an active airport it helps to increase the region’s competitiveness and support its economic, social and cultural development. The aim of this study is to analyze whether an active airport and its traffic frequency have an effect on country’s macroeconomic indicators. In this study region - fixed effect and two stage least square (2SLS) models are applied with using panel data for 26 sub-regions at NUTS 2 level in Turkey period of 2004 - 2011. The results of this study support that increasing in number of active airports and its traffic frequency have a positive effect on regional economic growth
Macroeconomic Determinants of Air Transportation: A VAR Analysis on Turkey
Gaziantep University Journal of Social Sciences, 2018
The aim of this study is to investigate the relationship between air transport and macroeconomic variables for the 1983-2015 period in Turkey, by using the VAR analysis. Three key indicators of air transport were used in the study. These were domestic passengers, international passengers and international cargos. In this study, three different models were created using indicators of air transport, including macroeconomic variables assumed to be related to them. In the first model, the relationship between domestic passenger demand and per capita gross domestic product (GDP), interest rate and consumer price index (CPI) was examined. In the second model, the relationship between international passenger demand and gross domestic product (GDP), interest rate and consumer price index (CPI) was examined. In the third model, the relationship between international cargo demand and gross domestic product (GDP), foreign trade volume, industrial production index and foreign direct investment amount was investigated. The results of the study show that per capita income, gross domestic product and consumer price index variables for domestic and international passenger demand are quite significant. In the case of International cargo demand, gross domestic product and industrial production index variables were observed to be influential.
Econometric Forecasting Models for Air Traffic Passenger of Indonesia
Journal of the Civil Engineering Forum
One of the major benefits of the air transport services operating in bigger countries is the fact that they provide a vital social economic linkage. This study is an attempt to establish the determinants of the passenger air traffic in Indonesia. The main objective of the study is to determine the economic variables that affect the number of airline passengers using the econometrics model of projection with an emphasis on the use of panel data and to determine the economic variables that affect the number of airline passengers using the econometrics model of projection with an emphasis on the use of time series data. This research also predicts the upcoming number of air traffic passenger until 2030. Air transportation and the economic activity in a country are interdependent. This work first uses the data at the country level and then at the selected airport level for review. The methodology used in this study has adopted the study for both normal regression and panel data regressi...
Euro Economica, 2018
The aim of this study is twofold: to describe the overtime changes in trends and to investigate the causal relationship between air transport, tourism and economic growth for South Africa between 1995 and 2015. Using an ecological design, Joinpoint regressions tailed at p<0.05 were computed for each variable to determine annual percentage changes. Causality and co-integration were inferred through the Granger causality and the Johansen co-integration tests. Additionally, a vector auto-regressive model (VAR) was computed to test for linear inter-dependencies among the variables. Significant increases were observed for all variables between 1995 and 2015. The results of the stationary tests showed that that air transport variables were stationary the first differences while the tourism variables and GDP variables were stationary at second difference. Cointegration tests can be applied on series that are stationary at the same level. Therefore no further inference was made on the relationship between air transport variables and GDP. Both the cointegration and causality tests did not provide evidence of causality and long run relationships between GDP and tourism variables. However, a proportion of the variance in tourism expenditure and tourism receipts was shown to be explained by GDP through the VAR model. The results imply potential associations between tourism and GDP in South Africa.
The Causality Analysis of Air Transport and Socio-economics Factors: The Case of OECD Countries
Transportation Research Procedia, 2017
Air transport is one of the most important industries in the world with its rapid growth, and direct and indirect contribution to world economy. In other words, GDP, tourism and employment are the key factors causing that growth in air transport and an increase in those factors boost the demand for air transport. However, uncertainty in economy, rising unemployment and increased terrorist attacks towards tourism would be a big threat to the growth of air transport in the future. To understand the importance of the mentioned factors, we first aim to apply an econometric approach which is panel Granger causality analysis. To achieve that, data from World Bank data set for OECD countries between the year of 2000 and 2013 is used in this study. We apply Pesaran CDLM test and Friedman’s test which are preferred when the number of units (N) is higher than the time (T) to test cross-sectional dependence and we then perform Granger causality analysis in order to see whether there is a causal relationship (unidirectional or bidirectional) or not among air transport, tourism, economic growth and employment. Econometric results indicate that there is a unidirectional short run causal relationship between economic growth, tourism, employment and air transport and that those factors play an important role in the growth of air transport. In this paper, we also aim to discuss the future challenges for air transport within the frame of econometric results and statistical analysis.