Replacement migration, or why everyone is going to have to live in Korea: a fable for our times from the United Nations (original) (raw)
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Global population ageing, migration and European external policies
2005
Executive Summary During the last decades, it has become increasingly clear that demographic change constitutes one of the most important challenges of the 21st century. One important factor that has placed demographic change high on the political agenda is an increasing awareness of current demographic trends. Another factor that has contributed to the growing interest in demography is an emerging consensus among social scientists that demographic change is a vital trigger for social, economic and political development.
Back to replacement migration: A new European perspective applying the prospective-age concept
Demographic Research
BACKGROUND The UN Replacement Migration report (2000) had a significant impact in academic and civil society. Its approach consisted of estimating the migration volumes required to mitigate the effects of population decline and ageing. The volume of migrants required to prevent population decline and sustain the working-age population was not particularly high, but the vast number of migrants needed to maintain the potential support ratio was highlighted as an unrealistic goal.
Dong-Hoon Seol (2018) “Population Aging and International Migration Policy in South Korea.”.pdf
Journal of the Korean Welfare State and Social Policy, 2018
South Korea todays enjoys a demographic dividend, or bonus, resulting from its abundant working age population. In the near future, however, this may turn into a demographic onus with a high potential support ratio, according to the Population Projections for Korea 2015-2065, released by Statistics Korea. Fears will spread about stagnant population growth and the aging population and about the consequent graying of the workforce. This paper examines four aspects of the question of whether international migration can ameliorate the shock of population aging in Korea or at least slow the aging trend. First, it looks at the relationship between migration policy and pronatalist policy as methods of dealing with the aging shock. Second, it identifies the scale and trend of international migration in Korea and assesses the government’s migration policy. Third, it analyzes future population estimates to identify Korea’s demand for immigration, or in other words, the size of the population required for the Korean economy to keep growing, known as replacement migration. Finally, it discusses the future direction of Korea’s migration policy while reviewing current issues related to the use of such policy to counter population aging.
European Journal of Population / Revue européenne de Démographie, 2007
Population and labour force projections are made for 27 selected European countries for 2002-2052, focussing on the impact of international migration on population and labour force dynamics. Starting from single scenarios for fertility, mortality and economic activity, three sets of assumptions are explored regarding migration flows, taking into account probable policy developments in Europe following the enlargement of the EU. In addition to age structures, various support ratio indicators are analysed. The results indicate that plausible immigration cannot offset the negative effects of population and labour force ageing. Keywords Population projections AE Labour force projections AE International migration AE Population ageing AE Europe Ré sumé Des projections de population et de population active sont pré senté es pour 27 pays Europé ens pour la pé riode 2002-2052, avec un inté rê t particulier pour l'impact de la migration internationale sur la dynamique des populations. A partir de scé narios uniques pour la fé condité , la mortalité et l'activité é conomique, trois sé ries d'hypothè ses concernant les flux migratoires sont exploré es, en inté grant des prévisions sur les dé veloppements des politiques publiques à la suite de l'é largissement de l'Union Europé enne. Les structures par â ge sont analysé es, de mê me que des indicateurs de rapports de dé pendance. Les ré sultats indiquent que les flux d'immigration vraisemblables ne pourront pas compenser les effets né gatifs du vieillissement de la population et de celui de la population active.
Population Research and Policy Review, 2012
Concerns about population aging in Europe have occupied the attention of policy makers and demographers for over a decade. Some policy makers have proposed increased immigration to offset the aging of the population (i.e., replacement migration). However, demographers have estimated that a very high (and likely untenable) level of immigration would be required, and little is known about whether the national publics of Europe would support international migration as a potential solution to population aging. Using Eurobarometer data from 2006 and concurrent country-level measures from Eurostat, this study examines individual-and contextual-level factors related to public attitudes toward immigration as an effective solution to the problem of population aging in the current 27 member countries of the European Union. Results from multilevel logit analyses indicate that urban, university-educated, and childless individuals are consistently more likely than others to endorse replacement migration. Countries with more prosperous economies and proportionally fewer foreign-born residents also show more supportive attitudes. Such results echo research on anti-immigrant sentiment, suggesting considerable public resistance to population policies that might encourage large-scale immigration. At the same time, these findings show consistent patterns of endorsement despite demographers' criticism of the concept of replacement migration and concerns about developing alternative long-term strategies.
Migration and the Demographic Shift
Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, 2016
Migration and the Demographic Shift * This chapter connects population aging with international migration. After documenting the trends for both, we review the supply-push and demand-pull determinants of migration, focusing particularly on the role of age and aging. We subsequently discuss the literature concerning the implications of migration in the context of aging for labor markets, health and public budgets including the political economy context. Although immigration is sometimes suggested as a solution for the aging problem, the existing academic literature from different fields is more cautious about its role and potential. While large-scale selective immigration might contribute to alleviating demographic pressures, it is unlikely that immigration will increase to the unrealistically large numbers needed.
Development and Critique of the Concept of Replacement Migration
International Migration and the Future of Populations and Labour in Europe, 2012
For the last few decades decline in fertility and mortality resulting in population ageing raised many concerns among the demographers. Their uncertainty about the performance of certain public institutions (e.g. pension systems and labour markets) gave way to various solutions that might reverse current trends in the development of the size and structure of populations. One of them is the concept of replacement migration-the idea implying that international migration might be a tool to offset population ageing and its negative effects. This article outlines the concept and its development, and evaluates its usefulness from the point of view of different scientific disciplines, other then demographic. The evaluation leads to the conclusion that for the time being the concept is a purely scientific exercise that may help realize the scale and potential threats of the ongoing population changes. Before it can offer feasible solutions to population decline and ageing as well as their consequences, it needs to be expanded. In such case, the so far ignored economic, social and political aspects of population development would have to be given proper attention.
Changed emigration as a remedy against depopulation
2021
Depopulation and population ageing are interlinked topics of great concern in many countries. To counteract the negative effects of these phenomena, increased fertility and/or increased immigration are often proposed as demographic solutions. However, substantial long-term fertility increases have proved difficult to achieve, and whereas increased immigration usually reduces ageing in the shortterm, it may be politically controversial and have limited effects in the long term, because immigrants also age. However, in this discourse and at the national level, changed emigration is rarely mentioned.