Age estimation of juvenile stages of Dracaena cinnabari Balf. F., the last stone in the mosaic of knowing its lifespan (original) (raw)
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Crown age estimation of a monocotyledonous tree species Dracaena cinnabari using logistic regression
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Unique woodlands of Dracaena cinnabari (DC) are at risk throughout most of their range (Socotra Island, Yemen) as a result of missing regeneration and overmaturity. Effective conservation measures depend on reliable predictions of future population dynamics, which depend on accurate data on current age structure. However, age determination of Dracaena sp. has long been a scientific challenge, because the common method of tree ring counts cannot be applied to this or to most other monocotyledonous trees. In the present study, the indirect method for crown age estimation proposed by Adolt and Pavlis (Trees 18:43-53, 2004) was further developed using a more appropriate statistical technique and an intuitive model formulation. This new technique is based on the relationship between the number of branching orders and the number of flowering events that result from a specific growth pattern. We used logistic regression to directly model annual flowering probability, the reciprocal value of which corresponds to the length of the interval between flowering events. Our methodology was applied to data sets collected at two ecologically distinct sites. In Firmihin, the time between flowering events decreases from 28 years between the first and second event to 10 years between the 25th and 26th event. The length of time between flower events in Skant, however, was estimated to be a constant value of 6.5 years. We propose the application of generalised mixed-effects models and methods of survey sampling to improve the accuracy of crown age estimation in DC. Our methodology may also be useful for age estimations of other tree species with similar growth patterns, such as Dracaena draco and Aloe dichotoma.
Forests
Background: Dracaena cinnabari is a monocot species that does not form annual tree rings; thus, its age can only be estimated. This species is threatened by low natural regeneration, with an evident absence of younger individuals most likely caused by overgrazing; therefore, knowing trees’ ages is important for possible conservation strategies; Methods: Data collection was conducted on the Firmihin Plateau on Socotra Island (Yemen) in 2021, and the diameter at breast height (DBH) of 1077 individuals was measured, the same as those established on monitoring plots 10 years before the current measurement. The 10-year radial stem increment and DBH obtained in 2011 served as a basis for the linear model from which the equations for the age calculation were derived. Results and Conclusions: A direct model of age estimation for D. cinnabari was developed. According to the fit model, the age in the first (10.1–15 cm) DBH class was estimated to be 111 years, while that in the last DBH class ...
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Stem diameter at breast height (DBH) and tree height (H) are commonly used measures of tree growth. We examined patterns of height growth and diameter growth along a stem using a 20-year record of an even-aged hinoki cypress (Chamaecyparis obtusa (Siebold & Zucc.) Endl.) stand. In the region of the stem below the crown (except for the butt swell), diameter growth rates (ΔD) at different heights tended to increase slightly from breast height upwards. This increasing trend was pronounced in suppressed trees, but not as much as the variation in ΔD among individual trees. Hence, ΔD below the crown can be regarded as generally being represented by the DBH growth rate (ΔDBH) of a tree. Accordingly, the growth rate of the stem cross-sectional area increased along the stem upwards in suppressed trees, but decreased in dominant trees. The stem diameter just below the crown base (D CB), the square of which is an index of the amount of leaves on a tree, was an important factor affecting ΔDBH. D CB also had a strong positive relationship with crown length. Hence, long-term changes in the D CB of a tree were associated with long-term changes in crown length, determined by the balance between the height growth rate (ΔH) and the rising rate of the crown base (ΔH CB). Within the crown, ΔD's were generally greater than the rates below the crown. Even dying trees (ΔD ≈ 0 below the crown) maintained ΔD > 0 within the crown and ΔH > 0 until about 5 years before death. This growth within the crown may be related to the need to produce new leaves to compensate for leaves lost owing to the longevity of the lower crown. These results explain the different time trajectories in DBH-H relationships among individual trees, and also the long-term changes in the DBH-H relationships. The view that a rise in the crown base is strongly related to leaf turnover helps to interpret DBH-H relationships.
Growth forms and age estimation of treeline species
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2010
The objective of this research was to compare actual heights at known ages with those estimated by the methods proposed by Graves (1906), , and the Ratio and Graphic methods, in order to identify the most accurate one for Pinus taeda from Southern Brazil. That way, six trees aged at least 11 years were used. Cross-sections with 5 cm thickness were collected at heights of 0.10 meters, 0.70 meters, 1.30 meters and so on at every 1 meter along the bole. True height growth for a given age was measured on the section itself by dividing it in two parts along the pith and looking for the exact point where the true annual height growth took place. The accuracy analyses were based on residuals between true heights and those estimated by the tested methods for each age. For this analysis, the relative mean deviation (D % ), relative mean absolute deviation (AbsD % ), standard deviation of differences (S d ) and sum of squared relative residuals (SSRR) were calculated. These 4 statistics evaluated together, allowed for the identification of the most accurate method for every age. Complementarily, the non paired t 0.05 test for data was applied to evaluate whether the residuals from each method were significant or not. The results of the analysis indicated that and were identical owing to the fact that they estimated the same height value for sections where there was only one growth ring finishing in the same section. This situation occurred for most of the results in this current study. It was concluded that and were the best methods for estimating height growth because both produced non-significant residuals for the majority of the trees studied.
Tree age estimates in Fagus sylvatica and Quercus robur : testing previous and improved methods
Plant Ecology, 2003
The accuracy of direct (based on increment cores) and indirect (based on age-size relationships) methods of tree age estimation in Fagus sylvatica and Quercus robur was tested. This was done through increment cores and stem discs taken in an old-growth forest of Northern Spain. It was found that cross-dating was more precise than ring counting by up to 7 years per tree. Furthermore, cross-dating permitted the estimation of the age of trees with floating ring-width series, which were 7% of cored F. sylvatica and 40% of Q. robur ones. In partial cores with the arcs of the inner rings, the length of the missing radius was estimated with both a geometric method, based on the curvature of the arcs, and a new graphical method, based on the convergence of xylem rays at the pith. The graphical method was more accurate when the radial growth was eccentric, as happens in Q. robur, while both methods showed a similar accuracy for F. sylvatica, whose growth is relatively concentric. Empirical models of initial radial growth (IRG), built to estimate the number of missing rings, reduced the errors associated with other methods that assume constant growth rates. Age estimates obtained from the graphical method combined with the IRG models were within 4% of the actual age. This combination ensured age estimates with a mean accuracy of 8 years for 98% of the F. sylvatica trees, and 4 years for 89% of the Q. robur. In partial cores without the arcs of the inner rings, the length of the missing radius was estimated as the distance to the geometric centre of the tree. In that case, age estimates obtained by extrapolating the mean growth rate of the 20 innermost rings in the cores were from 10 to 20% of actual age, which coincided with results obtained in other tree species with this method. Finally, the age-diameter equations of the different cohorts produced better age estimates (from 8 to 14% of actual age) than equations of the population as a whole (from 20 to 40% of actual age). These results proved that the errors derived from doubtful assumptions, such as concentric radial growth, constant growth and recruitment rates, or the absence of anomalous rings, could be reduced by applying more realistic methods of tree age estimation.
Modelling the Effect of Tree Age and Climatic Factors on the Stem Radial Growth of Juvenile
2017
Tree growth is influenced by environmental and genetic factors. Trees with different genetic material growing under the same environmental conditions have different growth pattern. Adequate management requires good understanding of factors affecting tree growth. The aim of this study is to determine the factors that influences stem radial growth of juvenile Eucalyptus hybrids clones. The longitudinal data used in this study is obtained from Sappi land holdings in coastal Zululand of eastern South Africa. For the first two years of growth, measurements of stem radius were repeatedly obtained using dendrometer attached to 18 trees. Weekly measures of climatic data (temperature, solar radiation, relative humidity and wind speed) were simultaneously recorded with total rainfall from the site. A fractional polynomial model under linear mixed modelling framework, that incorporates the covariance structure into statistical model, was used. The results of the analysis indicate that the rela...