The Effect of Farmers' Exchange Rates on Rice Prices in 2017-2019 (original) (raw)
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This study aims to determine the factors that have dominant influence to domestic prices of rice. Ordinary Least Square is used to run model with time series data from BPS. The results of the study we found that domestic rice production and the exchange rate have negative effect on domestic rice prices, in contrast the international rice price and the level of income per capita. Domestic production of rice and international prices of rice do not significantly affect domestic prices of rice, while the exchange rate and per capita income significantly affect domestic prices of rice respectively at the alpha level of 10 and 1 percent. Per capita income is a the greatest influence on the formation of domestic prices of rice by the estimated coefficient of 3.5985. This condition also describe the level of society's dependence on rice consumption. The high of difference of domestic price of rice with the international rice prices can be detrimental to the community while providing a s...
ISR Publishing Group, 2023
Another factor phenomenon that is also suspected to have a strong influence on NTP is labor. Labor itself is the most important indicator in agricultural development, without labor the agricultural system will not work well because agriculture requires labor from upstream to downstream. The factors that affect Farmer's Exchange Rate (NTP) in Candi District, Sidoarjo Regency in this study are age, education, number of farmer family members, seed prices, pesticide costs, labor costs, land area (Ha) and income and expenses. farmer household food. This study aims to analyze the Farmer's Exchange Rate (NTP) for lowland rice, to analyze what factors affect the Farmer's Exchange Rate (NTP) for lowland rice and to determine the level of welfare of rice farmers in Candi District, Sidoarjo Regency with the Farmer's Exchange Rate. The research location is in Candi District, Sidoarjo Regency in this study, the number of samples determined will be examined as many as 40 samples according to the number that the author wants to determine. The analysis tool uses Farmer's Exchange Rate (NTP) analysis, multiple regression analysis and descriptive analysis. The results of the study were that the average exchange rate of the sample farmers in the study area was 63.19 or less than 100. Thus, it can be concluded that the welfare level of the sample farmers in Candi District, Sidoarjo Regency, is a farmer experiencing a deficit. Partially the variables of land area, farming costs, selling prices, food expenditures and non-food expenditures have a significant effect on the exchange rate of rice farming farmers. Farmers who are categorized as prosperous are 4 farmers and farmers who are not prosperous are 36 farmers. The decline in the Farmer's Exchange Rate was caused by many things.
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IOSR Journals , 2019
This study aims to analyze the development of farmer exchange rate and what factors influence the farmer exchange rate, especially food crops in the Province of South Kalimantan. The data used is monthly time series data from 2014 to 2017 which are mixed with the Central Statistics Agency (BPS). The development of the exchange rate of farmers in South Kalimantan is described using descriptive analysis, while the analysis of the factors that affect the NTP of food crops is done using multiple linear regression models . The results of the F test indicate that the estimated regression model is suitable for use. The results of the test show that the variable US dollar exchange rate, average grain price at the farmer (GKP), and wage of harvesting laborers have a significant effect on variable tied to food crop NTP. In addition, inflation, export value and economic growth have no significant effect on food crop NTP. The coefficient of determination (R 2) shows the number 0.918 which means that the proportion of the six independent variables influence amounted to 91.8 percent and the remainder by other variables.
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Instability of rice prices in Indonesia is shown from the increasing price disparity between Indonesia's rice price and international rice price. Stabilization of food prices is one of the priority policies of the government. The instruments of rice price stabilization should be integrated and measurable. The purpose of this research is to analyze the effectiveness of rice price stabilization policies that have been implemented by the Indonesian government in the period 2010 to 2015. The data used in this study were monthly time series data from January 2010 to December 2015. Data were collected from Indonesia’s Agency for Logistics Affairs and Indonesia’s Ministry of Trade. This research used multiple regression analysis model. The results show that the three policy instruments of rice price stabilization ie rice HPP, market operation, and rice import are right to control rice price. However, market operation and import policy instruments have not been effective in stabilizing ...
IMPACT OF MARKET-DETERMINED EXCHANGE RATES ON RICE PRODUCTION AND IMPORT IN NIGERIA
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Recently, the relationship between farmer exchange rates and the variables that influence them still leaves debate and various empirical findings. In general, this study aims to 1) analyze inflation's effect on farmers' exchange rates in Eastern Indonesia. 2) Analyze the effect of changes in the agricultural sector's economic structure on the exchange rate of farmers in Eastern Indonesia. 3) Analyze the effect of farmer exchange rates in the previous year on farmer exchange rates in Eastern Indonesia. 4) Analyze the simultaneous effect of the inflation rate, changes in the economic structure, and the previous farmer exchange rate on farmers' exchange rate in Eastern Indonesia. The analysis method used is descriptive qualitative and quantitative analysis. The quantitative analysis tool used is the Panel Data regression model. The data used is panel data from 12 provinces in Eastern Indonesia for the period 2010-2018. There are several approaches to estimating the pane...
How much does rice price influence milled paddy price? Analysis of price integration in Indonesia
Archives of Business Research
This study analysis how much the price of rice influences the price of milled paddy. The results can aid in policy suggestions related to the price of rice. If the price of rice has a big impact on the price of milled paddy, increasing rice prices could be an effective policy to increase the price of milled paddy. This would desire farmers to increase production and create food security. If is the little effect, this policy would not be effective. The impact of this policy might harm consumers and increase poverty. The analysis was carried out using price integration and data from Indonesia. The data were taken from January 1, 2007, to December 31, 2014. The results show that rice prices influence the price of milled paddy, but not proportionally since increases in milled paddy price are always lower than increases in rice prices. Thus, increasing the price of rice to increase the price of milled paddy to help the farmers is not effective because it does not substantially increase farmer income and will not be effective for stimulating production. This phenomenon occurs because for many farmers (especially small farmers), the market structure is nearly a monopsony market. As a suggestion for make increasing rice prices more effective, the government could intervene via Indonesian logistics Bureau to make the market more competitive. This intervention could create competition for traders in the monopsony market.
Rice policy, trade, and exchange rate changes in Indonesia: A general equilibrium analysis
Journal of Asian Economics, 1998
This paper presents an agriculture-focused computable general equilibrium model that can be used to analyze the economy-wide impacts of changes in technology, market structure, and the foreign exchange rate on resource allocation, production, and trade in Indonesia. The model includes a specification of the rice market and the government price-support, stocking, and trade policies for rice. Using a mixed complementarity approach, the model incorporates inequalities and changes in policy regime as prices and/or stocks move within specified bands. The model is used to examine the impact on the Indonesian economy of changes in rice yield and exchange rates given different assumptions about the operations of BULOG (National Logistic Agency). An important result is that there is inefficient allocation of resources within agriculture and the rest of the economy if BULOG operates to maintain the rice price when there are significant increases in rice productivity or changes in the exchange rate. With increased productivity in rice, the price support scheme retains resources in rice production that would be better used in other, high value, agriculture. With devaluation, maintaining a low rice price discriminates against rice producers and hence slows the process of structural adjustment. In addition, the price support program is costly and strains the government accounts, even if the administrative costs of operating the program are ignored.
Modeling the Farmer Exchange Rate in Indonesia Using the Vector Error Correction Model Method
Matrik, 2024
The agricultural sector plays a crucial role in the Indonesian economy. However, the farm sector still has serious problems, including agricultural product prices, which often fall when the harvest supply is abundant. So often, the income obtained is not proportional to the price spent by farmers, which has an impact on decreasing the welfare of farmers. An indicator to observe changes in the interest of Indonesian farmers is the Farmer Exchange Rate Index (NTP). This study aimed to form a model and project the welfare level of farmers in Indonesia, focusing on NTP indicators, which are caused by the influence of variables such as inflation, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), interest rates, and the rupiah exchange rate. The method used was the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), used when there are indications that the research variables do not show stability at the initial level and there is a cointegration relationship. The results of this study showed that in the long run, significant factors affecting NTP are inflation, interest rates, and the rupiah exchange rate. Meanwhile, in the short term, the variables impacted were GDP and the rupiah exchange rate. The resulting VECM model showed a MAPE error rate of 1.79%, indicating excellent performance, as the MAPE error rate was below 10%. The implication of this research is to provide information related to NTP projection that can be used to formulate strategies to strengthen Indonesia's agricultural sector.