The Wider Economic Impacts of Transportation Infrastructure (original) (raw)
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Methodology for the Assessment of Spatial Economic Impacts of Transport Projects and Policies
2001
In this study we develop an integrated econometric and CGE modelling framework for transport projects and transport policies at the European level by integrating network, regional economic and macro-economic impacts. The paper presents the formal structure of the integrated econometric and CGE modelling framework, explains the calibration and applies it to the policy evaluation. The effects of infrastructure investments are modelled by simulating trade cost changes in a comparative static analysis, using estimates of trade cost changes due to new infrastructure links, obtained from a transport network model. By performing a systematic and quantitative analysis of the spatial, network and socio-economic impacts of transport investments and policy and carrying out scenario simulations we improve the under-standing of the impact of transportation policies on short- and long-term spatial development in the EU.
Sustainability, 2019
Major cities in developing countries are undergoing massive transportation infrastructure construction, which has significant impacts on the land use and economic activities in these cities. Standard Cost–Benefit Analysis (CBA) is applied to quantify the user benefits of transport projects, but does not provide an answer as to who will obtain the benefits and who will lose out and excludes the calculation of Wider Economic Impacts (WEIs) which can sometimes be large and hardly negligible. This paper introduces thoughts and experiences obtained through the design and development of an integrated land use transport model for the assessment of the WEI of a transport infrastructure project. The development and application of such an integrated model for WEI analysis should help decision-makers understand not only the “direct or immediate” impact of transport infrastructure on mobility, but also those “indirect or long-term” impacts on the distribution patterns of economic activities, co...
2016
This systematic literature review covers quantitative ex-post analyses of social and economic spatial effects due to changes in transport supply, published within the last decade. Ex-post analyses observe what happened and allow us to understand fundamental principles, to learn for the future, and to use correct values in ex-ante studies, appraisals etc. The focus is on techniques that deal with three tasks: quantification, isolation and causality of such effects. Circa 40 publications by academics, organizations and official authorities are assessed for their technique (e.g. spatial instrumental variable) and theme (e.g. productivity gains), and protoype studies are presented in detail. We conclude that descriptive analyses – frequently done by official authorities – do not suffice for the tasks mentioned. The successful more elaborate techniques on the other hand require several additional statistical tools to be reliable and other data sources that traditionally have not been col...
Towards Closing the Loop Between Infrastructure Investments and Societal and Economic Impacts
The Engineering Economist, 2015
The long-term value proposition of transportation infrastructure investments can be significantly distorted if the short term effects of spatial externalities on land-use patterns, economic expansions, and migration patterns are not properly included in the analysis. Some of these effects occur over a short period of time and soon after the investment materializes, while others take longer and follow more steady patterns. In this paper, we develop a novel dynamical model of a primal society with constructs that are specifically geared toward transportation infrastructure expansions and investments. The model quantifies the impact of these expansions on some key performance indicators and on the overall utility and production capacity of the society. We argue that traditional analytical models that work on the premises of stationary behavior and a static response of society to changes in infrastructure do not correctly capture these effects. The land use patterns and spatial expansion computed from the model are validated against existing theory on land use. Preliminary results on how to use the model for value proposition analysis are also presented using simple case studies.
SPATIAL ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE SUPPLY
This paper contains a survey of studies on the spatial economic impacts of transport infrastructure supply. A theoretical framework is developed where impacts of transport infrastructure on spatial economic development are measured in terms of productivity changes and (re)location behaviour. The transmission takes place via changes in generalized transport costs and accessibility. Methods for analyzing transport infrastructure impacts are classified according to the level of aggregation of the data (aggregate versus disaggregate) and the degree of model use (modelling versus nonmodelling approaches). Two spatial levels are distinguished: intra-urban versus intraregional. At the intraregional level it is found that integrated land use-transport models usually yield infrastructure impacts of limited size. Much larger impacts are usually found when entrepreneurs are directly interviewed about these impacts as they perceive them. At the interregional level, production function approaches usually lead to the conclusion that infrastructure supply has a considerable impact on the productivity of other production factors. On the other hand, the relocation impacts of transport infrastructure on economic activity as predicted by multiregional models are usually limited.
Open Journal of Civil Engineering, 2019
Investing in large transport projects affects the (potential) economic development of metropolitan areas. Yet, very little critical research has been performed to understand how to assess these effects. The relationship between infrastructure investments and regional economic development is complex and indirect, and many theoretical and methodological difficulties remain. On the one hand, the assumption that investing in infrastructure is important to sustain economic growth is sometimes doubted. On the other hand, it is argued that investments in infrastructure enhance the accessibility of urban regions and that in the slipstream of such investments, social problems in urban regions can be tackled as well. Despite these contrasting views, there is at least a consensus that transport infrastructure development depends on economic development and vice versa. Yet, in many cases, the method of assessing economic impacts highly affects the results. Therefore, this paper focuses on a critical reflection of methods for estimating economic effects of infrastructure investments. A critical evaluation is made based on Indonesian and Japanese cases. After conducting in-depth desk research on both cases, we found that the broader effects on affected group of people tend to be overlooked due to the problems of time and space dimensions, the chain reaction of effects, and inappropriate data practices. The assessment on the appraisal processes tends to overlook the broader economic implication due to narrow focus and the concept of efficiency of economic theory.
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000
Traditional program evaluation of transport investment tends to focus on relatively narrow measures of market benefit (e.g. a transport project's reductions in traveltimes that will be generated for travellers). In many cases benefit measures such as these are more than sufficient, especially when considering increments to existing transport and other infrastructure networks. However, transport infrastructure can have significant spatial effects such as expansion in effective access to markets for goods and services and an ability to achieve agglomeration and other spatial economies across those markets. Agglomeration economies in particular are inconsistently understood and often incompletely specified. This paper develops a template which categorises agglomeration effects, indicating how they arise from real-world characteristics which are counter to standard simplifying assumptions which are the basis of most traditional evaluation methods.
The long-term value proposition of transportation infrastructure investments can be significantly distorted if the short term effects of spatial externalities on land-use patterns, economic expansions, and migration patterns are not properly included in the analysis. Some of these effects occur over a short period of time and soon after the investment materializes, while others take longer and follow more steady patterns. In this paper, we develop a novel dynamical model of a primal society with constructs that are specifically geared toward transportation infrastructure expansions and investments. The model quantifies the impact of these expansions Downloaded by [Walter Kemmsies] at 22:28 30 July 2015 ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT 2 on some key performance indicators and on the overall utility and production capacity of the society. We argue that traditional analytical models that work on the premises of stationary behavior and a static response of society to changes in infrastructure do not correctly capture these effects. The land use patterns and spatial expansion computed from the model are validated against existing theory on land use. Preliminary results on how to use the model for value proposition analysis are also presented using simple case studies.
The Economic Development Effects of Transport Investments
This paper will set out to describe two of the main elements in the debate on transport and economic development. First it will argue that where there is already a well-connected transport infrastructure network, further investment will not on its own result in economic development. Transport infrastructure investment acts as a complement to other more important underlying conditions, which must be met if further economic development is to take place. Additional transport investment is not a necessary condition, but acts in a supporting role when other factors are at work. These factors will be presented as the necessary conditions that need to be met if economic development is to take place.
Sustainability
The correlations between investments in transport infrastructure and territorial development continue to concern public authorities. They are responsible for optimising the allocation of financial resources, and they are interested in the correct short- and long-term estimations of investments in transport infrastructure’s consequences for development. The direct and indirect effects of transport infrastructure are present in the socio-economic assessment methodologies of projects. Despite the recorded progress, uncertainties remain in technical assessments, especially socio-economic ones, and they do not remove decision-makers’ concerns regarding the necessity and appropriateness of investments. Based on these aspects, this paper aimed to clarify the effects of new infrastructure on socio-economic development.